Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,136
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« on: February 08, 2012, 02:02:43 AM » |
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Santorum's always been stronger. Glad to see the results finally show this to be the case tonight.
Newt did well in South Carolina - but Santorum did better in South Carolina than Newt did in MN and CO.
Santorum also did better in MN than Newt in SC, and MN wasn't considered to be a significant Santorum state until tonight, whereas SC was do or die for Newt.
Also - 3 Obama states are now gone for Romney. IA, MN and CO.
365 EVs for Obama - (-7) for Iowa, (-10) for MN and (-9) for CO.
That takes Romney down to 339, -1 for NE.
338-200 for the Anti-Romney, and that includes NC.
331-207 (minus NC + UT + AK).
PA + OH + MI + WI + IN + IL is the battleground right now. To swing the nomination away from Romney - the Anti-Romneys have to win 60 EVs from the Battleground.
PA + OH + WI + IN is enough. Even if Romney manages to hold IL and MI, he still has to win one of PA or OH or WI or IN to get to 50 percent of the delegates.
Romney just lost presumptive front runner status, as I believe he is behind in all 4 of these states. But, it's a narrow thing and certainly not a guarantee.
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