Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: November 07, 2022, 10:53:01 AM » |
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I think it'll be close one way or another. Given higher turnout than we saw in KS is guaranteed (probably worth 3-5 points margin-wise in favor of anti-abortionists) and the sheer partisan balance of the state relative to a state like KS (11 points margin-wise more in favor of Trump than KS in 2020), I'm not sure I'd take a bet on this outside the standard polling margin of error under a 50/50 outcome.
Based on the above approximations, I'd nerf the amendment margin relative to the 2022-KS outcome by at least 14-16 points (KS abortion amendment failed by 18).
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