Rate Georgia Gov. in a Perdue (R) vs Abrams (D) race

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue would do better than Kemp in the vast majority of scenarios - by how much I cannot say for sure (the ceiling would be somewhere around 1 point), but every vote can matter in a state like GA.

At a granular/individual level (something hard to observe by just looking at county results, or even precinct-level data at times - especially given huge demographic shifts in many areas of significance that skew results), there were tens of thousands of Perdue '14 voters who voted for Abrams in 2018 & Perdue in '21. Both candidates have demonstrated at least some crossover appeal, and both candidates' better-than-Generic D performances is a result of that. Who these voters decide to back in a 2022 contest is difficult to guess.

(I know people like to joke about Perdue's Suburbron Coattails and all, but individual voter file analysis backs this up more than people realize. Perdue did roughly 1 point better than Loeffler statewide in the runoffs, and Abrams did 1-1.5 points better than fundamentals of 2018 would have suggested. However and in the case of both 2018 & 2021, their respective overperformances were 2-3x as powerful among the same higher-income, predominantly white suburban/exurban ATL communities; there are more Perdue '14-Abrams '18-Perdue '21 voters out there than people think)