What counties do ya'll think Hoftmeiser wins? Does she wins any CDs?
If she loses by even 10 points, she's almost certainly winning CD-5 (Edmondson lost it by just 0.2 in 2018).
From there, it's a matter of how close (or not) the race is: as an example, if she loses by 5-7 points, then she is probably pulling statistically-even in CD-1 (Tulsa; Stitt +7.7) & CD-4 (South-Central OK; Stitt +9.2).
Unless she just
really racks up the score (relatively) in Little Dixie, there's no way I can see her winning where she wouldn't carry 3 out of 5 CDs. Even if she loses by low single-digits (in contrast with almost all contests in heavily-R states where Ds win, yet only score a paltry minority of CDs), there's a distinct possibility she still carries 3/5!
