Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Adam Griffin]

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

These tips are frankly useless. To provide some real guidance to this forum, here are GRIFF'S PATENTED 10 TIPS FOR SURVIVING ELECTION DAY

1. DO stay up all night on Election Eve. You can sleep when it's over. The more hours you're awake, the more prescient you become at discerning every morsel of Election Day information.

2. DON'T reign in expectations: after all, the Election Gods only give luck to those who dream for the sky!

3. DO overreact to every morsel of preliminary turnout data, including long/short lines, appearance of voters in line, turnout as a share of the previous election at a precinct during any portion of the day, and other observations. A good format to make you sound like an expert:

"Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]"

4. DON'T wait for the final exit polling data to drop at 7 PM: rather, latch onto reports from the preliminary exit polls at 5 PM and reassure yourself that this is definitely reflective of the final result.

5. DO let weather forecasts and reports allow you to draw big conclusions about the outcome. After all, thunderstorms mean Democrats lose by 40 points, hot weather makes old Republicans wilt in place, people used to snow and ice don't vote in snow and ice, etc.

6. DON'T wait around for an accurate representation of precincts to begin reporting votes before calling the race; instead, DO make broad proclamations about the race at 8 PM when Democrats are losing GA by 30 points and 7% of the vote has been counted.

7. DO attend Election Night watch parties and DO bring every mobile device you have, and remain glued to them rather than socializing with your peers.

8. DON'T take anything Wolf "Wow!" Blitzer has to say at face value. Seriously.

9. DO consume as many stimulants and mood-lifting substances as you can get your hands on throughout the day; especially when combined with #1, you'll be at peak performance just in time for poll closings.

10. DON'T behave rationally at the end of the night, win or lose. Close things out after hours of arguing with opposition supporters on social media by passing out in a pool of drool on your desk.

[Adam Griffin]

Things starting to look very positive for Youngkin:

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153

Yeah game over that R areas in a D state are at 89% of 2017 turnout when a few D areas have already surpassed 100% turnout...

He’s claiming it’s out of presidential turnout, not 2017, as in on track to exceed 2020 numbers. Doesn’t sound believable lol

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016).

It seems as if he is comparing to ED votes in 2020.

I see. Well, in that case, this site would seem to indicate wither that A. EDay votes are now basically the same as they were in 2020, meaning that with mail-ins turnout has now outstripped 2020 in this precinct (seems implausible), or (more likely in my view) B. that for some reason this site counts all votes for 2021 but just EDay for 2020.

and/or C (these precincts are in rapidly-growing neighborhoods where there are a meaningfully larger number of voters than even just last year)

[Adam Griffin]

I tried to tell y'all for years not to trust the suburbrons. I really did.

[Adam Griffin]

Where's a guillotine when you need one?

https://twitter.com/heatherscope/status/1455696272489422849

[Adam Griffin]

Probably not as decisive in this race as the media is desperate to make it look, but Democrats need to come up with a better rebuttal to the CRT panic.

"It's not being taught in public schools, you f'ing morons" sounds like a good response to me. At this point it's time to just start saying that Republicans are manufacturing lies to create panic.

This is honestly the right answer for everything. Republicans make s[inks]t up, and Democrats - being the party of pansies in the modern era - issue a press release or make some milquetoast statement along the lines of "this is not my position". Then the media says "both sides ?? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯".

The world doesn't work this way anymore. Anytime the GOP throws some asinine, false claim at a Democratic candidate, said candidate needs to have a shock-and-awe moment in front of every camera in the universe for maximum saturation. Saying something like "Nobody supports that and the people saying so are f[inks]ing c[inks]k-sucking dips[inks]ts" will make headline news on a national level, saturate social media and actually take control of the narrative in every situation. But as long as the GOP gets away with this crap, they'll keep doing it (because it works).

[Adam Griffin]

Probably not as decisive in this race as the media is desperate to make it look, but Democrats need to come up with a better rebuttal to the CRT panic.

"It's not being taught in public schools, you f'ing morons" sounds like a good response to me. At this point it's time to just start saying that Republicans are manufacturing lies to create panic.

This is honestly the right answer for everything. Republicans make s[inks]t up, and Democrats - being the party of pansies in the modern era - issue a press release or make some milquetoast statement along the lines of "this is not my position".

The world doesn't work this way anymore. Anytime the GOP throws some asinine, false claim at a Democratic candidate, said candidate needs to have a shock-and-awe moment in front of every camera in the universe for maximum saturation. Saying something like "Nobody supports that and the people saying so are f[inks]ing c[inks]k-sucking dips[inks]ts" will make headline news on a national level, saturate social media and actually take control of the narrative in every situation. But as long as the GOP gets away with this crap, they'll keep doing it (because it works).

I've been called a tin-hatted conspiracy theorist for saying exactly this. I'm glad people are starting to wise up to this game. The Democratic Party's leadership needs to be burned to the ground and rebuilt with people who know what they're doing.

Us white rural Southron Dems have known this for 200 years. The real amazement is how so much of the party has forgotten about how effective it is regardless of format.

[Adam Griffin]

I tried to tell people, but some wouldn't listen:

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

...

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

Fun fact: add that 186k from pure demographic shift to the 2004 presidential result, and you get:

Bush 50.7%
Kerry 48.4%

And what do you know?



The net result here is that Democrats lost the equivalent of every persuadable vote they've earned since 2004 in this race.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/adamgriffin/status/1457627858264788992

And keep in mind that this is just vote-share: margin difference between Warner and McAuliffe would be double those figures.

Some fun examples:
Covington (City): Warner 46%, McAuliffe 32%
Henry County: Warner 41%, McAuliffe 29%
Bristol (City): Warner 36%, McAuliffe 26%
Radford (City): Warner 57%, McAuliffe 45%
Richmond County: Warner 42%, McAuliffe 29%

What's really crazy is that in the hardest-hit areas for Ds, the cities slid just as much - and in several cases, even more than the surrounding, more rural environs (see Bristol vs Washington, Covington vs Alleghany, Danville vs Pittsylvania, Galax vs Carroll & Grayson, Radford vs Montgomery, Salem vs Roanoke County, etc).

[Adam Griffin]

Do people believe that TMac campaigning in rural western Virginia would have made the difference? I don’t know if it would or not.

Let's say that he bridged half the gap between his performance and Warner 2020's in just the counties on my map where Warner's vote share was 9 percentage points or higher than McAuliffe's. Youngkin would currently be leading by less than 0.1 point. Given #coattails, Ayala would have a shot and Herring would certainly be winning.

The real question is "could somebody like McAuliffe have an impact if he actually campaigned there?". While he's nowhere close to an ideal candidate for these areas, he absolutely could have moved the needle - and if the same had been done throughout most of rural Virginia where the underperformance was smaller but still far too large to be ignored, then the end result could have been a very close win regardless.

But yeah: when your campaign does next to nothing to mobilize or persuade rural voters, you personally show up virtually nowhere in the rural parts of Virginia overall and you only go west of Roanoke once - to tour a closed school and have a closed meeting with "business and city leaders" - you are absolutely leaving tons of votes on the table.

[Adam Griffin]

*tweet*

And keep in mind that this is just vote-share: margin difference between Warner and McAuliffe would be double those figures.

Some fun examples:
Covington (City): Warner 46%, McAuliffe 32%
Henry County: Warner 41%, McAuliffe 29%
Bristol (City): Warner 36%, McAuliffe 26%
Radford (City): Warner 57%, McAuliffe 45%
Richmond County: Warner 42%, McAuliffe 29%

What's really crazy is that in the hardest-hit areas for Ds, the cities slid just as much - and in several cases, even more than the surrounding, more rural environs (see Bristol vs Washington, Covington vs Alleghany, Danville vs Pittsylvania, Galax vs Carroll & Grayson, Radford vs Montgomery, Salem vs Roanoke County, etc).

I thought I'd redo this on a more granular level, showing 1-point increments rather than 3:

[Adam Griffin]

VAGOP moving swiftly to throw the state back into the 20th century:

HB 79 Marijuana and certain traffic offenses; issuing citations.
Introduced by: Ronnie R. Campbell

SUMMARY AS INTRODUCED:
Issuing citations; marijuana and certain traffic offenses. Removes the provisions that provide that no law-enforcement officer may lawfully stop a motor vehicle for operating (i) without a light illuminating a license plate, (ii) with defective and unsafe equipment, (iii) without brake lights or a high mount stop light, (iv) without an exhaust system that prevents excessive or unusual levels of noise, (v) with certain sun-shading materials and tinting films, and (vi) with certain objects suspended in the vehicle, and the accompanying the exclusionary provisions.

The bill also repeals the provision that provides that no law-enforcement officer may lawfully stop, search, or seize any person, place, or thing solely on the basis of the odor of marijuana and that no evidence discovered or obtained as a result of such unlawful search or seizure shall be admissible in any trial, hearing, or other proceeding.

HB 72 Marijuana cultivation facility licenses; prohibition on sale of plants and seeds.
Introduced by: R. Lee Ware

SUMMARY AS INTRODUCED:
Marijuana cultivation facility licenses; prohibition on sale of plants and seeds. Provides that, if an act of assembly is passed by the 2022 Session of the General Assembly that creates a license that authorizes the licensee to cultivate retail marijuana and perform related activities, such licensees shall not be permitted to sell mature or immature marijuana plants or marijuana seeds to consumers.