Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Adam Griffin]

Assuming 100% raw vote turnout from November*, here's how much remains out in core D counties:

Dekalb: 69%
Chatham: 65%
Clarke: 62%
Cobb: 60%
Muscogee: 33%
Gwinnett: 29%
Fulton: 27%
Dougherty: 23%
Richmond: 20%
Bibb: 17%

That's 935,000 votes remaining in these counties. This is at least two-thirds of what is outstanding statewide. Getting really close to calling it...

[Adam Griffin]

Why are we all losing our minds when the pages I’m looking at still have the GOP ahead?

Dude are you forgetting the GE and how the last 20% is Atlanta?

Yeah, people ought to remember that ATL proper polls (in Fulton/Dekalb) didn't close until 8 PM ET and it's probably the vast majority of what's left in Fulton.

[Adam Griffin]

Appears to be 100% reporting.

It might sound stupid for me to celebrate "only" a half-point R swing in my county, but...these margins are incredible: for anybody who doesn't understand, I encourage you to look at the 2018 GE vs runoff, where Democrats saw their margin of loss increase by 12+ points.

And there'll still be some provisional ballots to count.

WHITFIELD:

Runoff (31689 votes)
Perdue 70.89 (+41.78)
Ossoff 29.11

November (35593 votes)
Perdue 69.31 (+41.27)
Ossoff 28.04

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1346643511068794880

Hmmm

I TRIED TO TELL THEM

Keep an eye on fully reporting precincts in non-Paulding CD-14 tomorrow and compare overall raw totals and ED raw totals to November. They may be the earliest single-best indicator of what to expect.

[Adam Griffin]

In the core Democratic counties, if raw turnout is at 100% of November's total*, here's what is left:

Code:

Dekalb		247,000
Cobb 		224,000
Gwinnett 	        103,000
Fulton		92,000            
Chatham		59,000
Muscogee    	27,000
Richmond	        13,000
Bibb		        9,000
Dougherty  	8,000
Clarke		6,000

Total                 788,000

Likely 500k votes or more remaining in these counties - none of which were less than 56% D in November (overall, the average is somewhere 65-70% D).

Easily two-thirds or more of the outstanding vote is in these counties.

[Adam Griffin]

Increasingly looking like an Ossoff win of around 40k votes and a Warnock win of around 70k votes.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like there's another 40k combined outstanding votes across Newton, Henry and Clayton. Should be at least 60-40 (depending on exactly how many remain in Clayton; could be a larger margin).

What % reported is Floyd?  I can’t look at it on my phone

Good catch. Only about 1k in Floyd (40k in November). For whatever reason, Floyd always takes forever to count its votes. It is probably - without looking too much county-by-county - the single-biggest GOP bastion left to count.

[Adam Griffin]

For the past 30-45 minutes, the share of the outstanding vote that remains in the ten Democratic core counties has been remaining at around two-thirds, give or take, despite raw vote totals increasing. This might sound good for the GOP but they are running out of votes fast and the share of outstanding votes that are in core DEM counties is getting close to skyrocket.

GOP has about 70k votes outstanding in core counties (Houston, Columbia & Floyd) that are an average of 60% R, while DEMs have about 500k votes outstanding in core counties (mentioned above) that are 65-70% D. The rest out there is chump change.

EDIT: looks like Floyd just dumped the vast majority of its vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Uhhhh Dekalb CEO Thurmond just said there are only 130k votes left to count in Dekalb...

If that's all that are left and I'm looking at the current totals, Dekalb would only be at around 70% of November's raw totals...that'd be among the lowest (if not the lowest) turnout in the state.

[Adam Griffin]

If the Dekalb CEO's numbers are accurate, then it's still enough for Warnock, but it will come down to the wire for Ossoff.

[Adam Griffin]

If Dekalb is at 85% raw turnout of November, then there should be around 320k votes: with 140k counted, that'd imply 180k outstanding and would be a lot more in line with Sterling's figures.

[Adam Griffin]

So I guess we have proven beyond doubt, that promising people COLD HARD CASH, is a lot more effective than whatever the hell the Democrats have been running on as of late.

Um no: obviously we should keep running on defunding the police and small business tax credits for suburban whites.

[Adam Griffin]

*

...

Maybe I should break out the lotion and tissues.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1346699744505176065

I've heard people call Dekalb County a lot of things, but never "mystical"!

[Adam Griffin]

This is as much Stacy Abrams night as it is Ossoffs & Warnocks.

This forums' complete turnaround of her in the last 2 years (Particularly the last 6 months) has been even more fascinating to watch than the actual races.


From being raked over the coals by for not conceding over voter suppression concerns to being criticized as being "too ambitious" for wanting to be Biden's running mate.

From gleefully mocking her MSNBC appearance with Biden to now championing her as a forebearer of Georgia Democrats and a potential candidate DNC Chair

I really liked Abrams prior to election night 2 years ago... at which time I was momentarily turned off by her quasi-concession speech.  But then I quickly warmed back up to her (chalked election night up to her being totally deflated due to coming so close after so much work strengthening the Dem party). 

And certainly, my respect for her continued to grow as I became more aware of just how effective she has been in helping turn around the Dem Party in GA.

Based on the reaction she got during the Biden veepstakes, you'd have thought she was 2nd to Bernie as the most hated Democrat among Democratic circles.

A lot of folks fighting back attacks of Harris for being "too ambitious" were more than happy to use that same attack on Abrams.

She got quite a bit of unfair treatment in the last year. As long as Georgia grows bluer and Democrats keep winning statewide, I'm never gonna forget that

*remembers 'Chad Stacey' and 'Virgin Kamala' meme*

[Adam Griffin]

Ossoff ahead by 3,560 / Warnock ahead by 40,575.

[Adam Griffin]

So in the end of everything the black radical socialist anti-police anti-military anti-imperialist christian guy won with a better margin than the more moderate bland democrat guy? In Georgia?

Interesting. If it were the opposite people would be saying that it shows how going to the left is horrible in swing states. Yet the leftist guy had the better performance.

I think a lot of people are wanting to read into a relatively small margin difference in the hopes of crafting narratives based on the Democratic candidates, when in reality, it's more based on the Republican candidates.

Perdue - from the margin performances we have seen - still had some suburban goodwill and basically was about as good of a GOP incumbent as could be hoped for given the electorate that showed up, while Loeffler was an unelected stiff stooge woman who nobody liked and who most couldn't even pronounce her name properly (not to mention that the track record in recent years for victory among appointed Senators facing their first election is abysmal compared to actual incumbents).

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue, expectedly, seems to have overperformed the most in the counties with the most white college grads (Oconee, Cobb, Hall). Loeffler overperformed the most in the far NW corner (Chatt media market/MTG land) and the extremely old school interior SE parts of the state around Waycross. Maybe 7-8 years back this is where the counties were that had still had segregated proms.

I actually wrote a piece on segregated proms in HS for our school paper (circa 2004). Nothing of the sort existed in Northwest GA in my lifetime (probably in large part because of a lack of black residents), but the SE interior definitely still had plenty of them throughout the early 2000s. Places like Toombs and Montgomery were infamous for them.

[Adam Griffin]

Perdue, expectedly, seems to have overperformed the most in the counties with the most white college grads (Oconee, Cobb, Hall). Loeffler overperformed the most in the far NW corner (Chatt media market/MTG land) and the extremely old school interior SE parts of the state around Waycross. Maybe 7-8 years back this is where the counties were that had still had segregated proms.

I actually wrote a piece on segregated proms in HS for our school paper (circa 2004). Nothing of the sort existed in Northwest GA in my lifetime (probably in large part because of a lack of black residents), but the SE interior definitely still had plenty of them throughout the early 2000s. Places like Toombs and Montgomery were infamous for them.

The high school I went to had "segregated" proms back in the early 1980s, but it was more because as non-official private parties, it was possible, tho obviously not legal, to have alcohol at them than any strong desire to keep them segregated.

Yes, this was the case for many of the schools in GA that still had them in the 21st century as well: they were "private" affairs held off-campus (that just so happened to also be promoted on campus by staff).

[Adam Griffin]

Does anybody have an estimate of how much vote is left to count in GA? Nate Cohn on twitter was seemingly suggesting that he doesn't have much faith in the model's guess there of 76k, which would have gotten get Ossoff to a 1.1% margin of victory or so.

CNN went through the following, which are mostly day of absentee votes--
3k Chatham
3.5k DeKalb county
4k absentee + some other kinds of ballots from Fulton
? Cobb County
4,800 Gwinett County

And then 17k overseas and military ballots are outstanding, not all of which will be received or counted.

Anyone having anything else to add? It seems likely Ossoff gets to above .5 but perhaps not as high as the needle currently indicates.

There's still got to be at least a couple thousand votes out in Gilmer County (probably mail, given that it currently has Perdue 88-12 and it was Trump 81-18).

Trends would suggest there could be around 10k left in Henry County as well.

[Adam Griffin]

Question so I get the German Wiki entries right:

Is Warnock the first African-American ever to win a statewide race in GA ? Or only statewide for a federal race (excl. Governor, statewide dog-catcher etc.) ?

And I guess he's the first Black Senator from GA ever, right ?

First black federal candidate to win statewide in GA; first black Democratic Senator elected in the South.

(Both Thurbert Baker and Michael Thurmond won statewide elections as black men in the past for Attorney General and Labor Commissioner, respectively)

[Adam Griffin]

Is Warnock really the first Black Democratic Senator from the South ?

It's a short list, so peruse at your leisure:

https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/h_multi_sections_and_teasers/Photo_Exhibit_African_American_Senators.htm

[Adam Griffin]

Breakdown by vote type (as of 4.381m votes - SoS is still about 20k votes behind current totals):

Code:

Election Day (30% of vote):
Loeffler     63.13%
Perdue	63.64%

Early Vote (70% of vote):
Ossoff	55.82%
Warnock    56.20%

[Adam Griffin]

Both in a Georgia sense & beyond how common is it for the run-off to be won by someone who finished second?

It's not too uncommon in primaries:

2018-GOP-GOV: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2018&f=0&off=5&elect=2

2018-GOP-LTGOV: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2018&f=0&off=6&elect=2

2010-GOP-GOV: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2010&f=0&off=5&elect=2

2008-DEM-SEN: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=1

But for general elections, the last time was the 1992 Senate contest:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=1992&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

[Adam Griffin]

Trying to determine where all votes still exist. I think this is basically it:

Once everything is counted, my projection is that Ossoff wins by 36,400 votes (50.41% of total) and Warnock wins by 74,200 votes (50.83% of total).