2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of noon, 81,335 votes have been cast in Georgia (in-person & mail). Total EV as of noon is 1,993,380.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of noon, 81,335 votes have been cast in Georgia (in-person & mail). Total EV as of noon is 1,993,380.

already exceeded clinton total and will exceed trump's total tommorow

Will likely exceed Trump's total today. As of noon yesterday, GA had 82k votes cast; ultimately cast 214k for the whole day. We started with 1912k total after yesterday: add 200k to that and that's more than Trump's total.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of the 5 PM update, 178,436 votes were cast on Wednesday.

This includes 134,368 in-person votes and 44,068 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,285,039 in-person & 805,442 by mail, for a grand total of 2,090,481 (50.18% of 2016 total vote).

Georgia's EV total has officially surpassed 1) 50% of all votes cast in 2016, and 2) Trump's 2016 raw vote total (2,089,104).

[Adam Griffin]

Top 10 states (as of ElectProject's most recent updates - many totals are from yesterday; share of '16 total vote):

TX: 59.3
VT: 53.4
NJ: 50.4
NM: 47.8
MT: 47.1
GA: 45.9
NC: 45.2
TN: 42.6
VA: 39.3
IA: 38.5

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Wednesday Final: 212,526 votes were cast on Wednesday.

This includes 154,868 in-person votes and 57,658 mail ballots. Today was the single-largest day of mail ballot receipt thus far. There are still roughly 900k mail ballots/applications outstanding beyond this figure.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,306,490 in-person & 818,081 by mail, for a grand total of 2,124,571 (51.00% of 2016 total vote).

[Adam Griffin]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

[Adam Griffin]

Half of Texas residents can be found here:

[Adam Griffin]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 84162 (33.9%)
Rep 91231 (36.8%)
Una 72800 (29.3%)
Total 248193

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 61720 (42.7%)
Rep 46392 (32.1%)
Una 36438 (25.2%)
Total 144550

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 701095 (40.3%)
Rep 559998 (36.8%)
Una 476666 (27.4%)
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1038752 (42.8%)
Rep 691114 (28.5%)
Una 698179 (28.8%)
Total 2428045

GOP chips away at the considerable Dem early in-person lead for second straight day, and slightly reduces overall lead (350k to 347k) and Dems hit 1 million votes statewide. Statewide total also surpasses 50% of 2016 total.

Is this zeal from R voters or simply D voters moved to VbM?

Some meaningful net migration to VBM I'm sure, but keep in mind that NC has ancestrally never lost its Democratic registration advantage. Democrats are currently up by 3.5 percentage points in in-person EV, compared to a 5.5 point registration advantage. The biggest difference from nominal registration figures is that unaffiliated voters are showing at lower rates, padding the percentages for both Ds & Rs (but leaving the net margin relatively unchanged).

Registration, as of 10/17:
D 35.66%
U 33.40%
R 30.18%

On the other hand, it is pretty safe to assume that among registered Ds and Rs who have voted early in-person, there are more actual Republican voters (at least at the federal level) than Democratic voters due to that still-lingering ancestral/Dixiecrat legacy in registration.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of the 5 PM update, 183,804 votes were cast on Thursday.

This includes 135,022 in-person votes and 48,782 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,444,796 in-person & 863,579 by mail, for a grand total of 2,308,375 (55.42% of 2016 total vote).

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319389062806052866

Damnit, Michael McDonald: just count the early votes and stop trying to be a "thug"!

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Final Thursday Update: As of 8 PM, 205,833 votes were cast on Thursday.

This includes 148,180 in-person votes and 57,653 mail ballots. We fell literally 6 votes short of the largest single day for mail ballots (which was yesterday).

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,458,444 in-person & 871,960 by mail, for a grand total of 2,330,404 (55.95% of 2016 total vote).

Georgia will surpass its 2016 EV total around noon tomorrow.

[Adam Griffin]

Do we have any idea approximately how many mail ballots are outstanding in Texas at the moment?

I really wanted to do a comparison between TX & GA in terms of [votes cast + outstanding mail ballots] as a percentage of 2016 total vote.

In GA, that number is 77% (56% actual EV + 21% unreturned mail ballots). Texas would need to have around 1.1m unreturned mail ballots to match that percentage in combination with its current EV.

[Adam Griffin]

Hawkfish has new data out of the swing states based on the EV - their analyzations show that so far, Dems are turning out not just more high propensity voters than Reps, but also more 'sporadic voters' (low propensity) and new registrants.

AZ: Biden 58-42
FL: Biden 56-44
MI: Biden 62-38
NC: Biden 57-43
PA: Biden 72-28
WI: Biden 61-39

[Adam Griffin]

People could've just been like me from the get-go (rational; normal) and banked on Florida being a Trump/GOP state regardless - just like it was in 2018 for Desatan and Voldemort in a Democratic wave - and not lose their collective s[inks]t over one Safe GOP state potentially voting for the GOP, thinking it somehow is the ballgame for the Presidency.

If your name isn't Barack Obama or Nikki Fried, your chances of winning FL are well under that of a coinflip. Deal with it, etc.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of 5 PM, 200,424 votes have been cast on Thursday.

This includes 154,811 in-person votes and 45,613 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,616,098 in-person & 914,730 by mail, for a grand total of 2,530,828 (60.76% of 2016 total vote). Georgia has officially passed its 2016 EV total.