Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,090
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: June 01, 2020, 12:52:53 AM » |
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Under equal circumstances (which the presidential election will be given it's the same candidate), I don't expect AZ and GA to be far apart. First, GA has a naturally higher Democratic floor (46-47%) than AZ (44-45%). Secondly, 2018's top tickets saw a perceived white moderate running in AZ versus a perceived black radical running in GA, with a difference in margin of 3.7 points (plus there's no GA runoff for President). I suspect that if Biden is winning AZ by 2 points or more, GA is guaranteed to flip.
TX will be 3-5 points behind GA.
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