SC-Emerson: Biden +16

[Adam Griffin]

A final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar South Carolina poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 41%, Senator Bernie Sanders at 25%, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Businessman Tom Steyer tied at 11% each. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren are at 6% and 5% respectively, with Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard at 2%. Data was collected on February 26 and 27, 2020, n=550, +/-4.1%.

Compared to the last Emerson College poll of South Carolina from March 2019, Biden and Sanders have risen four points each, Buttigieg has gained 11 points, Klobuchar has gained five points, and Warren and Gabbard have maintained the same level of support. Steyer had not announced his candidacy at the time the poll was conducted.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/south-carolina-2020-biden-poised-to-win-his-first-contest

Looked at the crosstabs and did the projected delegates based on their data (statewide & congressional groups):

Statewide: Biden 12, Sanders 7
CD 1: Biden 3, Sanders 3
CD 2, 5, 7: Biden 8, Sanders 6
CD 3 & 4: Biden 3, Sanders 2, Buttigieg 1, Steyer 1
CD 6: Biden 8


Biden 34
Sanders 18
Steyer 1
Buttigieg 1

It's very possible that given those clusters of CDs, one or more other candidates may get delegates from them (by having individual CDs where they're doing better), but this is as granular as it can get with this data.

[Adam Griffin]

Delegate-wise, this still ain't bad for Sanders. He gets close to 40% of statewide delegates; comparable to a situation where it's Sanders 28, Biden 26, Steyer 22. The key is Steyer's viability.

[Adam Griffin]

Can someone give me a quick example of how delegate allocation works in this example?

Let’s say SC has 100 delegates and this poll is spot on

How would you determine who gets what?

South Carolina has 63 delegates: 54 pledged delegates and 9 superdelegates.

Of the 54, 19 are allocated by the statewide vote and 35 are split among the 7 congressional districts:



Candidates must reach 15% statewide to receive any statewide delegates, and they must also reach 15% in any congressional district to receive delegates from those CDs.

[Adam Griffin]

Looked at the crosstabs and did the projected delegates based on their data (statewide & congressional groups):

Statewide: Biden 12, Sanders 7
CD 1: Biden 3, Sanders 3
CD 2, 5, 7: Biden 8, Sanders 6
CD 3 & 4: Biden 3, Sanders 2, Buttigieg 1, Steyer 1
CD 6: Biden 8


Biden 34
Sanders 18
Steyer 1
Buttigieg 1

It's very possible that given those clusters of CDs, one or more other candidates may get/lose delegates from them (by having individual CDs where they're doing better/worse), but this is as granular as it can get with this data. Steyer and Buttigieg are on the cusp of being non-viable in CDs 3-4, while Sanders is on the cusp of viability in CD 6.

I said many weeks ago that if Sanders could hold Biden to a net gain of 20 delegates in SC, that'd be an effective win for him. If this poll is correct, he is doing that.


Nationally (before and after):

Sanders 45 -> 63
Biden 15 -> 49
Buttigieg 25 -> 26
Warren 8 -> 8
Klobuchar 7 -> 7
Steyer 0 -> 1

[Adam Griffin]

Additional Crosstabs:

Party Affiliation: Dem 75, Ind 21, GOP 4

Had Bloomberg been on the ballot, would you have voted for him? No 79-21

White: Biden 30-24
Black: Biden 49-27

Male: Biden 41-26
Female: Biden 42-24

18-44: Bernie 41-25
45+: Biden 54-12

HS or Less: Biden 48-26
Some College: Biden 42-27
College Grad: Biden 37-25
Postgrad: Biden 40-22

% Who Will Definitely Vote for Their Candidate:
Gabbard 100%
Sanders 85%
Biden 75%
Buttigieg 65%
Warren 63%
Steyer 59%
Klobuchar 43%

[Adam Griffin]

Really depressing. What the hell happened these past few days?

Teasers and soft support, it appears. A bunch of Biden->Undecided->Biden voters and people who were always soft on Steyer abandoning him (though that group is more evenly flowing to both Biden and Sanders). Notice that Sanders isn't declining in vote share in polling: it's just the flux between Biden, Steyer and undecideds.

And while black voters are the bulk of this back-and-forth shift, you'll notice that even black Sanders supporters aren't abandoning him. He actually has a higher vote share among black voters (27) than white voters (24) in this poll.