New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Adam Griffin]

These tips are frankly useless. To provide some real guidance to this forum, here are GRIFF'S PATENTED 10 TIPS FOR SURVIVING ELECTION DAY

1. DO stay up all night on Election Eve. You can sleep when it's over. The more hours you're awake, the more prescient you become at discerning every morsel of Election Day information.

2. DON'T reign in expectations: after all, the Election Gods only give luck to those who dream for the sky!

3. DO overreact to every morsel of preliminary turnout data, including long/short lines, appearance of voters in line, turnout as a share of the previous election at a precinct during any portion of the day, and other observations. A good format to make you sound like an expert:

"Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]"

4. DON'T wait for the final exit polling data to drop at 7 PM: rather, latch onto reports from the preliminary exit polls at 5 PM and reassure yourself that this is definitely reflective of the final result.

5. DO let weather forecasts and reports allow you to draw big conclusions about the outcome. After all, thunderstorms mean Democrats lose by 40 points, hot weather makes old Republicans wilt in place, people used to snow and ice don't vote in snow and ice, etc.

6. DON'T wait around for an accurate representation of precincts to begin reporting votes before calling the race; instead, DO make broad proclamations about the race at 8 PM when Democrats are losing GA by 30 points and 7% of the vote has been counted.

7. DO attend Election Night watch parties and DO bring every mobile device you have, and remain glued to them rather than socializing with your peers.

8. DON'T take anything Wolf "Wow!" Blitzer has to say at face value. Seriously.

9. DO consume as many stimulants and mood-lifting substances as you can get your hands on throughout the day; especially when combined with #1, you'll be at peak performance just in time for poll closings.

10. DON'T behave rationally at the end of the night, win or lose. Close things out after hours of arguing with opposition supporters on social media by passing out in a pool of drool on your desk.

[Adam Griffin]

Half the electorate deciding in the past few days is incredible and shows how much anxiety exists on the Dem side right now.


Doesn't bode well for Joe.

Or Bernie, for that matter. It's possible a bunch of people broke his way in the end, but this makes me think there was a lot of last-minute movement to Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

[Adam Griffin]

Y'all need to use DDHQ as it's way ahead of CNN et al:

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/primary/new_hampshire/president

[Adam Griffin]

Gloria Borger just said KLOBMENTUM on CNN lol.

[Adam Griffin]

18-29 yrs only 12% in exit poll per MSNBC, 65+ has dropped from 33% to 27%

Let's wait for the final revisions to exit poll data before assuming anything about youth turnout. Just like in IA: initially they had 65+ at 36%...revised down to 34%...to 32%...and finally to 28%. They get a lot of this stuff wrong initially.

[Adam Griffin]

Why does the NYT's forecast monitor keep dropping for Sanders when his lead is holding?

It just fell to a 58% chance of winning the state. It was at 70%.

What gives?

according to nate cohn, it's because bernie performed worse in the rural areas than expected

And because a lot of Masshole areas aren't reporting yet as well.

[Adam Griffin]

Just tuning in. With Warren and Biden tanking I think it's safe to declare Sanders the solid frontrunner at this point, no matter what his margin of victory is tonight.

Biden is done.

Warren is done.

The "moderate" vote is going to be so split going forward now, I think the path easily gets cleared for Sanders.

Where is Bernie going to inrease his vote share?  Iowa and NH should have been some of his best states.  A heavily white, liberal electorate.  Its not going up from here for him.  The field is totally muddled.

As you yourself pointed out, Sanders' coalition isn't what it was in 2016. He is more reliant on people of color and educated people, and less so on rural white voters. As such - by your own previous argument - this isn't the concern it would have been in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

Just tuning in. With Warren and Biden tanking I think it's safe to declare Sanders the solid frontrunner at this point, no matter what his margin of victory is tonight.

Biden is done.

Warren is done.

The "moderate" vote is going to be so split going forward now, I think the path easily gets cleared for Sanders.

Where is Bernie going to inrease his vote share?  Iowa and NH should have been some of his best states.  A heavily white, liberal electorate.  Its not going up from here for him.  The field is totally muddled.

As you yourself pointed out, Sanders' coalition isn't what it was in 2016. He is more reliant on people of color and educated people, and less so on rural white voters. As such - by your own previous argument - this isn't the concern it would have been in 2016.

He's still not relying on minorities.. that hasn't changed.  He's done nothing to reach out to them.  THey dont want free goodies.  Black voters are not democratic socialists.

Besides the fact that Sanders is #2 among black voters...

"Minorities" and "diverse" does not automatically equal "black". Black voters aren't the end-all, be-all of the primary coalition: 54% of Democratic minority voters in 2018 were non-black; stop erasing them.

[Adam Griffin]

Just tuning in. With Warren and Biden tanking I think it's safe to declare Sanders the solid frontrunner at this point, no matter what his margin of victory is tonight.

Biden is done.

Warren is done.

The "moderate" vote is going to be so split going forward now, I think the path easily gets cleared for Sanders.

Where is Bernie going to inrease his vote share?  Iowa and NH should have been some of his best states.  A heavily white, liberal electorate.  Its not going up from here for him.  The field is totally muddled.

As you yourself pointed out, Sanders' coalition isn't what it was in 2016. He is more reliant on people of color and educated people, and less so on rural white voters. As such - by your own previous argument - this isn't the concern it would have been in 2016.

He's still not relying on minorities.. that hasn't changed.  He's done nothing to reach out to them.  THey dont want free goodies.  Black voters are not democratic socialists.

Besides the fact that Sanders is #2 among black voters...

"Minorities" and "diverse" does not automatically equal "black". Black voters aren't the end-all, be-all of the primary coalition: 54% of Democratic minority voters in 2018 were non-black; stop erasing them.

Hispanics matter in about 5-6 primaries max.  Sorry.

Ditto for black voters. Sorry. Latino voters are demonstrably more equally distributed and the states where they dominate (TX, CA) are far more valuable.

[Adam Griffin]

Reiterating my question about whether there is somewhere where we can see the results from the CDs ?

Nobody's likely calculating these yet (at least live, and online) given half the vote is still out.

[Adam Griffin]

Oh god Pete might win this

Sanders is leading by 4.3 with 47% in....

Bernie is only 2.8% with 57% in

Where are you getting these numbers?

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/primary/new_hampshire/president

[Adam Griffin]

Pretty much everything that has reported in the past 30 minutes (based on DDHQ #s) has been Massholeland. The outstanding vote is getting friendlier for Sanders as his margin drops.

[Adam Griffin]

I've been wrong about Bernie being able to win the general. America isn't A Center-Right Country or wtfever, but the 2020 incarnation of him just isn't motivating people outside his base. (I still maintain that the 2016 version could have.)

His coalition doesn't look the same as it did 4 years ago, not to mention there are a ton of candidates still in the race. White and rural states benefited him 4 years ago because that was where his support was; this time around, it appears there are clear trends that diverge from that. More urban and more diverse states are likely to be better for him and compensate for these early underperformances.

It's no shrug in my opinion that Sanders is still going to win NH in the highest turnout primary in the state's history.

[Adam Griffin]

The haters need to come to terms with a very simple set of conclusions:

1) Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee
or
2) Donald Trump will serve as President until January 2025

In the words of the great Tiffany "New York" Pollard, y'all need to know that "Bernie ain't going no motherf[inks]ing where! Bernie is in the motherf[inks]ing house! Just live with that! Just be content with that. Live with it, moderates! Suck that s[inks]t up, whether you wanna breathe it in" or what have you.

[Adam Griffin]

Klobberer isn't going to win MN, and Warren isn't going to win MA. By the time Super Tuesday rolls around, Warren will likely have dropped out and Klobberer will be back at 5% nationally.

[Adam Griffin]

No Democratic candidate managed to win >30% of the vote in IA or NH in 2020. The last time this happened for either party was in the 1996 Republican primaries, when Bob Dole won IA with 26% and Pat Buchanan won NH with 27%. The last time no Democratic candidate won >30% of the vote in IA or NH was in 1976, when Carter won IA with 28% of the vote (he actually won fewer votes than "uncommitted") and NH with 29%.

Seems like we could be in for a wild primary.

Interesting that Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won New Hampshire rather than the other way around given Iowa's streak of favoring the most religious right-friendly candidate in the Republican caucus in the twenty-first century.

Not really Ford did better in IA than NH in 76 , HW beat Reagan in IA in 1980, and Dole beat HW in 1988.

But the real question is: are you ever going to learn that neither party still lives in the 1970s or 1980s?

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats' new focus: "uneducated white women between 40-64 who make $200k per year"!

[Adam Griffin]

NH Dem primary exit polls showed 2016 Dem primary vote was (Clinton 50%,Sanders 30%, Neither 18%).  I get the fact that Clinton ultimately winning the 2016 Dem nomination would bias these results but Sanders blew out Clinton in 2016 60-38. What happen to the Sanders 2016 NH base ?  It seems a bunch of them did not even bother coming out to vote in the Dem primary. 

With record turnout apparent, there's only one conclusion: these exit polls are garbage when it comes to gauging 2016 primary vote (as was apparently the case in IA, where supposedly Sanders '16 voters were <30%). I get that there has probably been a good share who are no longer Democrats, but even that doesn't come close to explaining these discrepancies.

[Adam Griffin]

This is getting OT, but let's just make it clear: there is no point in a voluntary "Medicare 4 Some" proposal, because as long as private insurance exists, the public health insurance market will be negotiating from a position of weakness, and will likely still comprise a minority of insured. Healthcare is also the only industry where competition is a bad thing: king/intermoderate some years ago made a very good argument about how "competition" increases healthcare costs due to the pools of insured exploiting one another's bad years cost-wise, raising their prices each year to be just below the worst-performing pool's price point even when they've individually had good years.

You need aggressive price controls as part of any reform package - if you don't have that, then not only would a voluntary system flop due to no tangible reduction in aggregate costs, but the percentage of income we spend as a country will only continue to increase. You can only have aggressive price controls if we're the sole (or at least, the overwhelming) insurer. Remember that the sacred ACA only managed to reduce the annual increase in healthcare costs from 3x the rate of inflation to 2x, and has largely just shifted costs from private to public (subsidies); from premium to deductible. Without a plan to reduce aggregate healthcare costs from 18% of GDP to 11-12% of GDP over a 10-year period, you might as well just continue to let people die in the streets (because that's what will keep happening regardless under any alternative).

Offering somebody a chance to buy into Medicare for $10,000 per year is not a deal that any sane person will take, and no amount of tax credits or dumb workaround subsidies is going to change that.

[Adam Griffin]

Both Parties can take something positive when it comes to Turnout:

The Democrats passed the 2008 DEM Turnout
The Republicans had a pretty high Turnout as well (150K) despite Trump only facing token Opposition.

When President Obama ran for Re-Election in 2012 the D-Primary Turnout in NH didn't top 60K.

Yes, in both states thus far, the GOP turnout has been worryingly high given that neither state had state/local primaries on the ballot + no competitive GOP presidential primary. That's the biggest single turnout-related metric that worries me about November.

Same thing I'm seeing in GA thus far with the mail ballots (Dems lead 54-43, but again, no state/local primary). Perhaps the Trump campaign is actively trying to turn out voters as a way to encourage "muscle memory" in the fall.