Gonna go with the data we have available right now and say Raffensperger wins by 10 points. Unless Dems have been waiting to cast their votes on Election Day disproportionately, we're in that territory.
From Two days ago
I mean, you can ignore
the entirety of that post and its context, but considering that I said...
- "the data we [had] available right [then]" was early vote and I calculated Raffensperger would win it by 8 (he ultimately won it by 9)
- the remaining projections were clearly stated as being based on if the ED/EV gap imitated the GE (they didn't)
- if Dems were holding their votes until Election Day, it'd be a lot different (they did; Raff only won ED by 2)
...I'm not ashamed of the call. Projecting with certainty what a runoff will look like in Georgia is damn near impossible and nobody can realistically claim to know how to project that without a ton of new voter file data and sophisticated campaign tools at their disposal. The only constant is that younger and browner voters show up in fewer numbers. I'm fine with being right about both the early vote margins and the total turnout, though!
Yeah, I'm hearing various reports from around the state that turnout is much lower than on 11/6, but much, much lower in Democratic precincts. We may be on track for a 1.5m vote election here.
