CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Adam Griffin]

UPDATES IN BOLD:

SAVINO - WON
CARLUCCI - WINNING (82% Reporting)
VALESKY - TIED* (86% Reporting)
AVELLA - LOSING (92% Reporting)
PERALTA - LOSING (96% Reporting)
HAMILTON - LOSING (89% Reporting)
KLEIN - LOST
ALCANTARA - LOST

*approximately

[Adam Griffin]

UPDATES IN BOLD:

SAVINO - WON
CARLUCCI - WINNING (82% Reporting)
VALESKY - LOSING (86% Reporting)
AVELLA - LOSING (98% Reporting)
HAMILTON - LOSING (92% Reporting)
PERALTA - LOST
KLEIN - LOST
ALCANTARA - LOST

[Adam Griffin]

UPDATES IN BOLD:

SAVINO - WON
CARLUCCI - WINNING (84% Reporting)
VALESKY - LOSING (95% Reporting)
AVELLA - LOSING (98% Reporting)
HAMILTON - LOSING (92% Reporting)
PERALTA - LOST
KLEIN - LOST
ALCANTARA - LOST

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that I can fetch turnout statistics by party and county for either primary (congressional or state) for NY? I didn't realize NY was one of those states that didn't put uncontested offices on the ballot (or at least it appears as such in the reporting). Even if a party doesn't have a primary/contest, surely the raw turnout of voters by party can be found somewhere?

I'm starting to think NY won't be doable for my primary turnout map since according to the State Board of Elections, there were only a couple of Senate districts' worth of GOP primaries on the ballot last night (and the situation doesn't appear much better for the congressional primary).

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that I can fetch turnout statistics by party and county for either primary (congressional or state) for NY? I didn't realize NY was one of those states that didn't put uncontested offices on the ballot (or at least it appears as such in the reporting). Even if a party doesn't have a primary/contest, surely the raw turnout of voters by party can be found somewhere?

Nope. Even the formal certification for the June primaries doesn't have such a statistic: https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2018/FederalPrimary/2018CertifiedFederalPrimaryResult.pdf . So you can't get anything by county for Rs.

About the only thing you could do to get a statewide total for Rs is take the CD-11 R turnout (21,472) and multiply that by 27 = 579,744. For Dems you can use Gov, Lt. Gov, AG, or add up the turnout in the 13 contested Dem Congressional primaries and multiply that by 2.08.

The problem with this - and why I simply left the state as 'unmeasurable' on my senate primary map, despite my past openness to alternate calculations - is that it assumes that every part of the state actually had a republican primary, which may not in fact be the case given that there were so many uncontested races on the republican side, plus we have the fact that NY-11 is more republican than most of the state, so it is likely that 579,744 is a gross exaggeration.

For the record though, using number for Rs and the Dem Gov numbers comes out to Dems having 71% of the primary turnout, which sounds roughly accurate.

FWIW, I just ended up going with active registered voters by county, which comprises a 69% Democratic statewide electorate.