Can the GOP consistently win national elections w/o making gains with Hispanics?

[Adam Griffin]

For another decade or so, yes. In 2012, Romney could have won anywhere from 9-45% of the Latino vote and it wouldn't have made a difference in any state's outcome with the exception of FL (which was the closest state nationally; decided by less than 1 point).

Latinos are among the least optimally-positioned voting groups in the country for presidential elections; the vast majority are in states that are either already safe DEM or safe GOP. Coupled with the fact that their share of the population versus their share of the current and/or eligible electorate means they're horribly under-represented leads to them having minimal effect on national outcomes (barring the occasional very-close state race or the outcome of the national PV).

There's plenty of room in a hypothetical 2020 election where - all other factors equal - Trump could win 15% of the Latino vote in one scenario and 40% in another, and yet there be no difference in the Electoral College outcome whatsoever.