Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: December 30, 2017, 12:01:32 PM » |
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Turnout in the special was already at midterm levels by and large - but made possible by more Democrats and fewer Republicans than normal showing up. I imagine there'd be a decent number of additional Republicans who'd show up in 2018 due to there being many other races on the ballot and I'd be surprised if less than half of them would be willing to vote for Moore.
However, Democrats have demonstrated an ability to win a federal office statewide in AL under relatively normal (or high, depending on how you look at it) turnout conditions. For 2018, the question would be 1) how many Republican-leaning voters would feel more comfortable voting Democratic in a state contest (as opposed to a federal contest) and 2) how many Republican-leaning voters would feel comfortable voting for a Democrat they already supported in the past (Sue Bell Cobb).
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