TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Adam Griffin]

Haslam's popularity among the Republican base has been steadily declining- I'm not sure he would even be a shoo-in in a low-turnout GOP primary.  Of course, the state at large would love a Senator Haslam, but I could see someone like Blackburn or Green making a primary interesting should they run.  My understanding is that Corker is highly likely to ultimately decide to run, still.

The only problem with this (accurate) statement is that the dynamics of GOP primaries in Deep South states surprisingly renders "the base" less influential than in other parts of the country. With the total collapse even at the local level of the Democratic Party in TN, you have lots of Democrats who vote in the GOP primaries for state/local races because they want influence over who inevitably wins.

Especially in East TN/Tennessee Valley, you're likely looking at about one-in-three primary-voting Democrats who pull the GOP lever (that's the case right across the border in GA). Ultimately, even in 70% Republican areas, you're talking about one-fifth of the GOP non-presidential primary electorate being Democrats. Such is life in areas with one-party states.

[Adam Griffin]

I think barring an Alabama-type scenario where the discrepancy between Democratic and Republican turnout is immense, 43% or so is his ceiling. A good part of the reason why Bredesen's name rec is (might be? not sure about that poll) so low in that poll is because a significant portion of the people who voted for him 11-15 years ago are now dead. Those people also disproportionately were the ones you needed to win (and could) statewide as a Democrat in TN: the proverbial ass-end of the New Deal Coalition and/or the Solid South.



If turnout (as a share of presidential #s) is like 80% for Dems and 55% for GOP, then yeah, winning is definitely possible.

[Adam Griffin]

That $341 average donation

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[Adam Griffin]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

What's funny is:

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Which means that GOP favorability can't be that bad...

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So Bredesen has a 85% favorable rating among Democrats, 69% among independents and 52% among Republicans. LOL!

[Adam Griffin]

High unemployment in TN during the Recession? Shocked - SHOCKED - I tell you!

[Adam Griffin]

He could conceivably lose many, many of those kinds of previous 2006 supporters and still win by a slim margin. OTOH, as Griffin has pointed out before, Bredie leaned on older voters back in that day, and younger generations then were more and more Republican, so a decent chunk of his previous supporters are probably not even alive anymore.

Yep: it's worth noting once again that even Kerry won TN senior citizens in 2004. Most of those people are dead (and definitely so in the case of the Greatest Generation); I'd be shocked if they comprise much more than 5% of the electorate at this point - especially since Southron Olds die younger on average.

[Adam Griffin]

We've had several polls showing Lee basically at +10 over the past week: I find it hard to believe that Dean will perform anywhere nearly as well as Bredesen. If Dean's getting into the low-to-mid 40s, I don't see how Bredesen loses by more than 5.

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at Early Voting...

3 Counties that are within 10% of 2016 turnout levels:
Davidson
Hamilton
Williamson

I think Davidson & Williamson are around Nashville & should be good for Bredesen...

But what about Hamilton?

Davidson is Nashville proper, Williamson is a staunchly-GOP suburb of Nashville (which swung to Hillary by a decent amount) and Hamilton is Chattanooga.

Davidson will probably be Bredesen's second biggest source of votes, next to Shelby/Memphis. He needs 70% or more in both counties in all likelihood.

Williamson was 64-29 in 2016 & 73-26 in 2012; Bredesen ideally needs to be in the very high 30s or low 40s there.

Hamilton was won by the GOP by around 15 points in the past 3 elections (Chattanooga is about 60% Democratic but is only 1/2 the county). Hard to see Bredesen winning statewide if he's not getting a high single-digit/double digit margin there.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Yeah, Romney won it by 47, while Trump won it by 35 (a 12-point swing to Clinton).

[Adam Griffin]

RCP moved TN to tossup, but Blackburn is at + 5.2 points

There would need to be a "Wisconsin 2016 error" for it to be wrong.

The same is true for WV.

RCP considers anything within 5 points to be "tossup" - perhaps they round down on the decimals.