Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,092
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: June 24, 2017, 05:15:28 PM » |
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If we look to past primaries, Booker being the only black candidate in the primary would give him a floor with black voters of 20%. Arguably, Biden starts off with an even higher floor - 30% or so. This is in a crowded field, though.
I've crafted up a bit of a flow chart of sorts that pretty accurately predicts (~90%) who will win the bulk of black support in a high-profile, two-person race. The fact that Biden has a significant advantage in both de-facto incumbency/establishment support and name recognition (#1 and #2 factors, respectively) would suggest he'd pull out a win barring a major upset caused by both a Biden campaign implosion and a miracle by Booker (a la Clinton/Obama 08).
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