It's gone. In the current political dynamic, it might as well be Wisconsin.
Of course, the Republican Party could moderate in the coming years and that could help put the state back into play - and certainly Republicans will continue to do well in statewide contests for quite some time - but the growth and trends we see in Virginia are too strong for a Generic R presidential candidate to overcome at this point. Frankly, I believe the tipping point for Virginia in presidential elections was reached circa 2006 - had it not been, I don't think Obama would have carried the state in 2012.
Now, if we ever get an actual leftist running for President, that might be enough to scare those rich NOVA-types back to the Republicans...
what do you mean by true leftist? After hearing Obama in 2003 talk about how there's tricks to get this country on universal healthcare, I didn't know there could be anyone to his left.
I'm not trying to be overly-ideological here, but Obama isn't exactly the most leftist President we've ever had - perhaps on social issues, but those issues tend to consistently move 'to the left' as society changes.
We didn't see him make a concerted push for single-payer healthcare, massive job programs or any of the large-scale government investments that you would expect from a 'traditional leftist' - he tended to negotiate with himself on what he thought Republicans would want and then watch it get watered down even more - if it passed at all. Even the big-ticket items like the 2009 ARRA were heavily comprised of conservative-favored policies, such as the temporary FICA tax cuts (which was something like 40% of the program). When you look at economics, we've had several Presidents to whom the term 'socialist' would apply much more than BHO.
A lot of the new Democratic growth in Virginia is coming from socially-liberal, economically-moderate upper-class voters - which BHO has done well with in both elections. They would not be so inclined to support someone who was calling for a nationalization of major energy sectors or wanted to raise the top income tax bracket to 50%.
Politicsguru is right: once Obama is off the ballot, things could change - but only if the Democratic candidate is to the left of Obama on economics. Otherwise, the standard 'modern-day Democrat' (those who cozy up with Wall Street and placate certain notions of supply-side economics) will continue to do well and win in Virginia.
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