NC-SurveyUSA: Obama's lead down to 5

[Gustaf]

I remember when SUSA showed Obama doing better than other pollsters did and was considered "the best primary pollster"

Those were the days...

5 is almost certainly wrong. It does look like Clinton is having the momentum though and an MoE result (something like +8 or +10) is not out of the question. Outlier, but perhaps not terribly much so.

[Gustaf]

I don't know where everyone gets their numbers. However, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections latest numbers, which seem fairly updated, the break-down of the North Carolina primary electorate looks like this:

White Democrat:         41%
Blacks:                        30%
White Independents: 27%
Others:                         2%

So. If everyone turn out in equal numbers and Clinton wins White Democrats by the same margin as in Pennsylvania (2-1) blacks break their usual 90-10 for Obama and white indys split 50-50 (again, as in PA) and others do too it's almost exactly 55-45 for Obama. Doesn't seem completely unthinkable for Clinton to do a little better then?

[Gustaf]

Since this is a good a thread as any I'll use this one to note that there seems to be definite Clintomentum going on in North Carolina (yes, that's right, I made up yet ANOTHER silly pun on momentum. So kill me.)

Of course, Obama has over-performed in most of the Southern states he's won compared to polling so I'm not holding my breath yet. I always expected NC to end up in single digits though and that is not looking unlikely right now.

[Gustaf]

I don't know where everyone gets their numbers. However, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections latest numbers, which seem fairly updated, the break-down of the North Carolina primary electorate looks like this:

White Democrat:         41%
Blacks:                        30%
White Independents: 27%
Others:                         2%

So. If everyone turn out in equal numbers and Clinton wins White Democrats by the same margin as in Pennsylvania (2-1) blacks break their usual 90-10 for Obama and white indys split 50-50 (again, as in PA) and others do too it's almost exactly 55-45 for Obama. Doesn't seem completely unthinkable for Clinton to do a little better then?

Why should White Independents turn up in equal numbers to White Democrats and Blacks? That makes no sense.

Of course it doesn't. Where did I say that it did?
Give me a decent assumption and I'll work with it...