SUSA about to release Clinton/McCain & Obama/McCain GE polls for all 50 states

[Gustaf]

McCain-Clinton is a 276-262 Clinton victory.

McCain-Obama is a 278-260 Obama victory.

North Dakota is weird, but I've long had the suspicion that Obama might make the rural northern west a lot more competitive than it has been, tapping into the extraordinary anti-establishment sentiment there. (That's really just the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming.) Maybe that's ridiculous optimism, but there you go.

Also, the usual caveats about polling certain states apply, NJ being the most obvious on these maps.

I would say North Dakota is a tad less believable than New Jersey, but ok.

SUSA have been good with primaries but they've never been very good with GE polls. They're an indicator, but their national maps have always been a bit crazy.

[Gustaf]

Eh - we'll see.  North Dakota is less anti-establishment than either South Dakota or Montana, and more Republican.  I'll want to see the polls out of those two states.  Idaho and Wyoming, too.  Even parts of Nebraska; maybe Obama will "win" a CD there, not that the poll would show this*.  Should be a fun afternoon.

But North Dakota is not voting Democratic in the General unless the Dem candidate is named Bartlett and is fictional.

* - Edit: ...or maybe it will.  That was sure a weird coincidence.

But the West loves Obama!

Seriously, I think these polls are sort of correct in the tendencies they show. But SUSA tends to blow up a couple of polls pretty badly when they do this. In the Obama v McCain match-up I'd say Ohio, North Dakota and New Jersey look completely unbelievable. I don't buy Virginia either. In Clinton v McCain the swing seem a little too large (McCain winning New Hampshire and Washington, Clinton winning West Virginia and Florida) but the trend is correct. Apart from Michigan, lol. Michigan going GOP when Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida don't? Yeah, right.

[Gustaf]

The exact results were less credible than the map. But MA and TX are beginning to consistently appear to be in play.