2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Gustaf]

What do you guys think of organizing a single national prison, in a penal colony in lets say Alaska? It would cetainly be affordable now, and the millitary can guard from prison breaks.

Prisons are usless. Death pnealty on every crime, that oughta teach them.

[Gustaf]

Penal colonies are largely ineffective, the cost to outfit the area with food, for example Guam, would be tremendous, unless you plan not to feed them and let them being whole new meaning to "fresh meat" (term used to describe new arrivals to a prison). In reality the best idea would be to establish a gulag like system, but only one. See in Canada the idea works, we could build a prison-city in Northern Alberta and let them fend for themselves, but in the U.S. it's possible to survive long enough to escape to somewhere if you know where you're going. Best bet is probably New Mexico or Arizona. Merge all the federal penitentiaries into one prison city in the middle of the desert. Have food drop offs and water supplied, but not much else.

Though I object whole-heartedly with this idea, if you're going to talk about doing it, do it right.

Siege40

Killing them remain superior, I'd say.

[Gustaf]

Reply 1502...

I was just in a bad mood and was joking. But Opebo was probably serious.

[Gustaf]

Miami, it sounds like you almost hope Bush will win. But I agree with you Dean would have been a better candidate. I hope Bush wins but I don't think over the next 8 months Kerry will be much of a challenge. I dont know the job situation in Ohio, but in the Presidents speech the other day things sounded pretty good or recovering at least. If Bush is only a 1 termer he will be the most successful 1 termer in U.S. History. Everything about the U.S. Economy is growing but the job growth is slow. Consumer Confidence is higher now then when Clinton ran for re-election, unemployment is lower then when Clinton ran. Clintons unemployment rate was 6.4% compared to Bushs' 5.5%.

Clinton ran with an economy that had been improving constantly wince he took office, Bush is doing the opposite. And that Bush says things are going great in his speech doesn't really say too much, he isn't the most objective person in the world, you know...

And the economy should be doing good, considering how badly it's been going before and the constant technological progress.

[Gustaf]

The Republicans will win Pennsylvania and Louisiana? I don't know... I don't know much but that sounds a little crazy to me. And Kerry wins California but not the election? Madness is rife in this discussion.

Siege40

Siege40,

The Republicans should win Lousiana without too much problem, it went for Bush by a margin of almost 6%. While not out of reach, it's definitely lean GOP. Pennsylvania was very close in 2000 and recent polls confirm that it's a tossup. And Gore won CA without winning the election...in fact CA is almost certain to go Dem, but not at all enough to win them the election.

[Gustaf]

I do not see a bad economy right now. Every since mid-2002 tourism is back up and they are flocking our state. The U.S. has taken a while to get over the 9/11 shock and the Clinton inherited recession.

It doesn't matter what you 'see' but how things actually are. I don't what you mean by 'Clinton inherited', but the economy was not actually going down when he left office. And 9/11 has little or nothing to do with the problems that the US and the rest of the Western world are expereinceing in economy.

[Gustaf]

I had a "dream" last night that Bush wins in a landslide. Though a few come true, I think that dream was biased lol.

Man, you should try and improve your dreams...

[Gustaf]

Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em

Ohio is far more socially conservative on the whole though.  Ohio even has major cities that are conservative.  ie Culumbus and Cinncinati

Pittsburgh is fairly liberal and Philadelphia is very liberal.  Not to mention the Hienz family connections in Pittsburgh.  It you look at my prediction map you will see that I grudgingly gave my homestate to Kerry.  I think he will win here.  On the other hand, I don't think that Kerry has much of a chance of taking West Virginia unless he puts a Pennsylvainian, Ohioan, West Virginian, Virginian or Kentuckyan on the ticket, which isn't likely.

W-A-R-N-E-R

[Gustaf]

I do not see a bad economy right now. Every since mid-2002 tourism is back up and they are flocking our state. The U.S. has taken a while to get over the 9/11 shock and the Clinton inherited recession.

Actually I think most voters look at how THEY are doing when they go to the polls and not what some economist says. And the Dot.coms blew up after Clinton left. All the scandals that happened under the Clinton admin with big business were revealed. Enron, etc. And 9/11 having no effect on the economy? Hooey.

Yeah, well, my point was that even though YOUR personal situation might look good, if the overall economy is doing badly people somewhere will be doing badly.

Tell me how 9/11 caused the recession.

[Gustaf]

The thing is are those people who are affected going to vote? And are they a large enough majority to kick Bush out? And after 9/11 a LOT of people were scared to death. A lot of people stayed home instead of coming to Florida to Disney or wherever. That caused these companies to lose a lot of business.

From what I recall there was some worry about that, but it didn't materialize. Consumption remained high, the Christmas sales were record high, I believe.

[Gustaf]

Doesn't matter to me, I don't like Kerry, Bush or Nader very much. Any of them winning in a landslide is a bad idea. Minority Governments in Canada tend to work best, I don't know the equivalent in the U.S. though.

Siege40

There is no equivalent. Without PP there will never be.

[Gustaf]

Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em

Ohio is far more socially conservative on the whole though.  Ohio even has major cities that are conservative.  ie Culumbus and Cinncinati

Pittsburgh is fairly liberal and Philadelphia is very liberal.  Not to mention the Hienz family connections in Pittsburgh.  It you look at my prediction map you will see that I grudgingly gave my homestate to Kerry.  I think he will win here.  On the other hand, I don't think that Kerry has much of a chance of taking West Virginia unless he puts a Pennsylvainian, Ohioan, West Virginian, Virginian or Kentuckyan on the ticket, which isn't likely.

W-A-R-N-E-R

N-E-V-E-R  H-A-P-P-E-N

W-H-Y N-O-T-? H-O-W C-A-N Y-O-U B-E S-O S-U-R-E-?

[Gustaf]

Yes going after the terrorists using a police method really works. I forgot, Clinton defeated Terrorism. lol Kerry is a Dove he may launch a few missles if we get attacked but he will use no force to destroy our enemies. Bush is making our future safer.

It sounds like your saying if Americans re-elect Bush they can expect more Middle East Campaigning. Where do the Republicans want to turn next? Iran? Syria? Egypt? Dare I hope Saudi Arabia?

I was reading a piece about Bush's 2000 campaign from what I read on his perspectives he wanted to run on a policy of essentially isolationism. I don't know, that's what I got out of the message.

Siege40

I would say Iran or Syria would be the next ones. I agree Saudi Arabia should be on the list, but it's never going to happen. Bushs' 2000 campaign issues on National Security are irrelevant now. That was before 9/11. The nations of the Middle East need to be enlightened.

I disagree. Even though I have little confidence in Bush, I don't think he is that stupid. Attacking Iran would be so stupid that I am lost for words at the mere suggestion of it.

[Gustaf]

That's my "wish list".

Why not toss in China while we're at it? Hell, why not take out the whole world in a BIG war, now that would be some leadership...

[Gustaf]

We are taking the world, one step at a time You can not beat the dark side lol.

May the force be with us...

[Gustaf]

Yes going after the terrorists using a police method really works. I forgot, Clinton defeated Terrorism. lol Kerry is a Dove he may launch a few missles if we get attacked but he will use no force to destroy our enemies. Bush is making our future safer.

It sounds like your saying if Americans re-elect Bush they can expect more Middle East Campaigning. Where do the Republicans want to turn next? Iran? Syria? Egypt? Dare I hope Saudi Arabia?

I was reading a piece about Bush's 2000 campaign from what I read on his perspectives he wanted to run on a policy of essentially isolationism. I don't know, that's what I got out of the message.

Siege40

All of those except for Egypt are excellent candidates, particularly Saudi Arabia.

No, they're not, especially not Iran.

[Gustaf]

All they are saying is believe what the bible says word for word and put the interpretations to the side.

They are saying a little more than that...:

1) the name on the church building is important and must come from the bible
2) Sunday replaced the Sabbath
3) Christ only shed his blood for one church and people need to seek out that one true church

Though I only read their page for a couple of minutes, I have to say I respectfully disagree.

I would also disagree with their views on:

1)speaking in Tongues
2)Trinity
3)Rapture
4)Premillennialism

Man, you're picky...

[Gustaf]

All they are saying is believe what the bible says word for word and put the interpretations to the side.

They are saying a little more than that...:

1) the name on the church building is important and must come from the bible
2) Sunday replaced the Sabbath
3) Christ only shed his blood for one church and people need to seek out that one true church

Though I only read their page for a couple of minutes, I have to say I respectfully disagree.

I would also disagree with their views on:

1)speaking in Tongues
2)Trinity
3)Rapture
4)Premillennialism

Man, you're picky...

Well, they did bring the topics up.

Lol, I know. But this is supposed to be for user predictions...

[Gustaf]

Gov. Richardson might give the Dems AZ and CO.  But that's a slim chance of happening.  Sen. Edwards might help the Dems in OH, IN, IA, TN, and MO.  Maybe VA and WV too.

Kerry winning without Ohio? It's you is the dreamer, my friend...
You're dreaming in both cases.  All the above mentioned states will go GOP, even in a Bush loss.

I think Opebo must ahve misread something...but this is a not too unlikely scenario in which the above happens:

[Gustaf]

My new prediction:



My prediction is heretical in parts. This is intentional.

It's certainly weird, I'll give you that...Gore won DE by a margin of 13 points, and now it's s tossup? And when did LA become lean Dem? Etc, etc. But it does appear very favourable to Kerry, I would certainly say that...

[Gustaf]

I know nothing about Delaware

I don't think that my map is favourable to either candidate... just less polarised and allowing for upsets.

I like thinking for myself...

Of the Gore states, you made 6 states for 41 EVs tossups and 1 for 5 EVs lean Rep. Of the Bush states you made 9 for 112 EVs tossups and 2 for 11 EVs lean Dem. That gives Kerry a base of 225 EVs, Bush a base of 153 EVs and the rest up for grabs. that looks favourable to kerry...

[Gustaf]

The 2000 election is in the past... and besides not all leaners or tossups are equal.
Louisiana is a weaker lean than Georgia.
New Hampshire is more of a tossup than Maine.
And so on.

OK...

[Gustaf]

Gore underperformed in Southern VA ("Southside")... a mix of his apparent stances on coal and tobacco.
If Kerry chooses a running mate who can appeal to these people he has a chance.

I don't understand why VA and LA are at issue in this thread since, regardless of who wins them, they are NOT going to decide this election barring a Kerry VP nominee from either state.

The states that will decide the election are those states in 2000 that were decided by 6 or fewer points (FL, OR, NM, MO, IA, WI, OH, NH, WV, PA, MN).  And I excluded TENN and ARK from this list since they were the home states of Gore and Clinton.
 
I would think OH, PA, and FL are the keys.  Whoever wins 2 of the 3 will be extremely hard to beat.

Yep.

[Gustaf]

He also underperformed in CD's 4 and 5 (mind you so did Clinton).

VA is swinging towards the Dems anyway (thanks the expansion of the liberal suburbs)... and picking up more votes in the rest of the state can't hurt.

Still a tossup mind.

What's the defintion of underperforming here? Doing worse than FDR or what?

[Gustaf]

You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden? So have I, but I haven't got around to changing my map yet...