Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Gustaf]

other Democrats are safer in much more partisan GOP districts.

No, other Democrats are safer in much higher percentage presidential GOP districts.
Not the same thing. Not at all...

I guess you're referring to someone like Landrieu (not a district, but I don't know enough about House Reps to name one )?

What about the Democrats in the Inner West? That area does seem to be partisan GOP as well.

[Gustaf]

That prediction would give the above map of House delegations (30% is a margin of one House seat, 40% 2, etc) Democrats flip MN and WI from tied, Ohio from GOP to tied and CT, CO, IN, PA, NM and NC from Rep to Dem. That would make 24 Dem delegations, 24 Rep and 2 tied. The notion that it's impossible for Democrats to get a majority of House delegations would pretty much fall apart. 

[Gustaf]

3. OH-18 is there based on polls and what I think of candidates involved.  Also, Space has pretty much no money left and is relying on the national party.  I know about the Ohio factor and it's been taken in.  In case you haven't noticed, the race has been consistently moving up the list the past few weeks.

Silly me. I guess I thought five consecutive polls (2 Dem, 2 Indie, 1 Rep) all showing the same candidate with a high single-digit or low double-digit lead warranted better than a 'Toss-up' rating. Oh, and about Space having "no money left - your facts are extremely screwy. He has $150K and Padgett has $250K (wow, big difference), and the the NRCC has spent $2.6 million for ads in the 18th District for Padgett in the last 7 weeks compared to the DCCC which has spent less than $1 million on ads for Space in the entire cycle. So your assertion that Space is depending on the national party for money is somewhat curious seeing as how Padgett has beneiftted vastly more from her national party's help than Space has. I guess some people are'nt as sharp as others.

Your logic needs work.  Just because more money is being spent on Padgett than Space does not mean that both are not depending on the national party, because both are.  Notice I never said that Padgett wasn't relying on the national party.  However, the national Republicans are simply better funded in this campaign, so Padgett will have a natural money advantage.

You've brought up the polling reasons as to why my placement of the race might be wrong (I doubt that you view my end prediction of it as wrong), and I've brought up the natural lean of the CD, my view of the candidates and a couple of other things.

I could well be wrong in my predictions, but calling me "not sharp" is not the best way to influence people.  I suggest you read Andrew Carnegie.

Your reading needs work. I didn't say that neither Space nor Padgett were relying on the national parteis, I said that both of them were. To correct your erroneous belief that Space is depending on the national party while Padgett is not, I pointed out to you that Padgett has recieved far more 9more than 3 times as much) assistance from the national party than Space has and that they both have very low COH amounts. I assumed from your statement that you did not know either of these things since you only mentioned Space, so I pointed them out to you. You shouldn't take them as an attack.

Oh, and I'm pretty sure you mean Dale Carnegie. I've read him. I'm surprised you have. Most people who have read him take constructive criticsim well.

If you act that aggressively you're attacking. If you're gonna be rude, at least stick to your rudeness. Backing down like that only looks sad.

[Gustaf]

We would then get this electoral map for the House. 24 Dem delegations, 23 Rep and 3 tied (changed from 17-30-3)