European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Gustaf]

I did the Dutch test:

CDA: 63%
PVV: 60%
50+: 51%

...

Jezus Leeft: 34%
Denk: 34%
Volt: 34%
Pirate Party: 29%

[Gustaf]

The Danish "Who do you agree with the most?" is here: https://www.altinget.dk/kandidater/ep19/

Agreed most with 3 DF and 2 People's Movement against the EU candidates with scores from 68% to 62%. Agreed least with an RV candidate (16%).

I agreed most with an RV candidate...and least with an RV candidate. 65% and 36% respectively. So that's great.

[Gustaf]

They're slowly counting the full vote in Sweden now - only 73/6305 precincts in.

Exciting for the Liberals - their preliminary result was 4.1% and the threshold to get into parliament is 4%. They're currently below 4% in the count and these are precints they did better than their national average in last time. But obviously this is mega early so you can't actually extrapolate from it.

[Gustaf]

They're slowly counting the full vote in Sweden now - only 73/6305 precincts in.

Exciting for the Liberals - their preliminary result was 4.1% and the threshold to get into parliament is 4%. They're currently below 4% in the count and these are precints they did better than their national average in last time. But obviously this is mega early so you can't actually extrapolate from it.

Doesn't their electorate turn out disproportionately well in lower-turnout elections though?

Probably yes, but they're also extremely unpopular and their fanatical pro-EU stance isn't a great vote-winner either.

Like, their GE base at this point is probably like 3.5% and then you got to subtract for having lost their top candidate in a scandal, replacing her with a nobody, being in the midst of a leadership struggle and campaigning on Sweden joining the Euro.

I still think they make it in but it's probably something like 1/3 chance they don't.

[Gustaf]

Amazing result. Huge PiS, Confederacy out (which presumably means they'll be in shambles and fighting each other long before the parliamentary election too).

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Polish-prime-minister-equates-returning-Jewish-property-to-Nazi-victory-590112

REALLY?!

DavidB tends to only support Jews if they're threatened by pesky brown people. Surely that isn't news to you.

----------------------------

Swedish Liberals at 4.01% currently. But given where the vote is coming from they seem on track to make it in so far.

[Gustaf]

Swedish Liberals now at 4.00% so exactly on the threshold. There seems to be more rural than urban areas counted so far though so they still look on track to make it in.

[Gustaf]

Swedish Liberals now at 4.00% so exactly on the threshold. There seems to be more rural than urban areas counted so far though so they still look on track to make it in.

Why is Sweden still counting? I thought elections didn't take that long to count?

I think it's primarily because we allow voting by mail and overseas etc on election day. And I think the election authorities recount all the votes once those ballots are added to the total. Typically it doesn't change the counted election night result very much though.

Liberals are now down to 3.88% with 3736/6305 precincts in. But that's actually kind of an improvement for them - lots of rural areas came in and they're actually hitting their targets there fairly well (then again they're so weak there it would be hard to do worse). Half of Stockholm region is still outstanding and I think that should pretty comfortably be enough to put them over.