VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Gustaf]

You have to love the double standard.

Gillespie has been race-baiting this entire cycle. But it is the latino ad that gets limp-**** moderates upset.

Americans just suck.

Because it was just plain bad and deserved to be called out. Ftr, those ld moderates you dislike make up the majority of Virginians. If you don't like that, feel free to pack up and move to CA, IL, or some other mismanaged state that is circling the drain. Are you even a Virginian or are you just using VA as an avatar?

I am a Virginian and I am sick and tired of jackasses who keep arguing in bad faith. They don't care about race-baiting, they are mainly upset because this ad hits close to home and deep down they know it is true.

How many incidences of Confederate trucks running down little kids have occurred in the Commonwealth?

That's a very literal reading. I took it more to be about the resurgence of white supremacy which is undeniably happening in Virginia and elsewhere right now.

Regardless, it's a pulled ad from an external advocacy group which is not linked to Northam. Why are you making it into such a big deal?

[Gustaf]

So, if we sidestep the hysteria am I wrong in noting that a) we have a lot of polls from reputable pollsters that aren't herding and are spread in a nice normal distribution around a clear Northam lead in a state where the polls got it just right in last year's election and b) the early vote totals show significantly depressed turnout in the strongly Republican areas compared to Democratic strongholds.

Like, sure, Gillespie could win but all the actual numbers I see don't back that up at all. Am I missing anything?

[Gustaf]

Northam's internals have him polling around Hillary levels (mid-30s) in rural VA. No particular enthusiasm for either candidate.

I mean, the actual story in that article is surely Northam running 15 points better than Clinton in rural Virginia. That seems like a huge thing if it's true. Then again, it's internal polling so I'm inclined to distrust it.