florida

[Gustaf]

Considering that Clinton won it by 15 points in 1996, well above his national average, it does seem to bump around a bit. Democrat margin compared to national average in WV:

2004: -11
2000: -7
1996: +6
1992: +7
1988: +13
1984: +7
1980: +15
1976: +15

I think that a different style of campaigning would do a big difference with a state of WV. But I doubt whether Kerry could have pulled it off and whether any Democrat is really interested.

[Gustaf]

This is the country divide of 1996 with Red=bigger Clinton margin than nationally and blue the opposite.



Realistically, states like Arkansas, Lousiana and West Virginia could still be swayed if another Clinton emerged.

[Gustaf]

The Florida senate election was one of the closest last year. Florida remains pretty much 50-50 atm, I'd say.

In terms of campaign focus it's probably true that Kerry should have gone for the steel states and not for Florida. In the long term I think that Florida is a better target though, partially because Florida is gaining EVs and CDs while Ohio's losing theirs...