ARG in West Virginia!

[Gustaf]

I think this is surprisingly good for Kerry...I still think that he'll lose WV in the end...just like he'll lose OH and PA...and the election...

[Gustaf]

I think this is surprisingly good for Kerry...I still think that he'll lose WV in the end...just like he'll lose OH and PA...and the election...

Gustaf... I really really don’t get why you rate Kerry as doing so poorly in the "steel states"... these are states that have done really badly under Bush... WV and OH  in particular and WV is historically Dem territory added to that Gore won PA by nearly 5%... so why are you so pessimistic?

To win those states you have to win the blue collar vote...and Kerry is really a man of the people, real worker's appeal...he's not at all a rich elitist...and he's really liberal, expect for free trade, of course...this guy knows how to pick his issues, doesn't he? Of course, he'll flip-flop back, but still...the only chance of a Dem candidate is to run on a socially moderate, semi-hawkish, ecponomically populist protectionist message. Kerry is the other way around on all scores. That'll cost him the close steel states.

[Gustaf]

Al... is proably right... if Kerry and Bush are evenly divided in WV at this stage Kerry may have the upper hand... steel workers in the north or the state and the population in the south are the keys to his victory... In fact WV could be a bellweather for this election... who ever wins WV might well win the election, as the national trend might well be in line with the result in WV... but its eight mounths yet...    

If the Byrd-Rahall machine can get enough people out to vote in the Coal District or if the Steelworkers stay angry... Kerry wins.

If this is the case the map'll look a bit like this:

Except that Ohio County will be in red.

I have WV as a slight lean to Kerry.  In 2002 the Democrats had a 61% to 29% advantage in voter registration - thats a heck of an edge.

Gore's stance on coal really killed him in 2000, and I can't believe Kerry (or anybody) could be that stupid again.  West Vorginia is a traditional democratic base state - heck even Dukakis carried it.

Back to the Dems IMHO...  - Nice to see Gustaf back on the boards!!!

I haven't been gone really...nice to be here...