CNN Ohio had the following:
2008
45% Moderate
35% Conservative
20% Liberal
Less liberals, but also less conservatives. If you were to reweigh Bachmann-Obama from the crosstabs with those numbers, you would get approximately the following:
Obama 49.7%
Bachmann 38.2%
Obama actually does 2 points better than the original this way. So I guess PPP is a conservative pollster. Who knew?
The electorate is likely going to be less Dem-friendly than it was in 2008 though.
I don't get Obama doing so relatively well in Ohio. It doesn't make sense to me.