SAP leadership race and other stuff

[Gustaf]

More to follow...

[Gustaf]

She is now the first leader of the SAP since the introduction of general voting rights never to serve as prime minister.

I was in Helsinki a couple of weeks ago and listened to Pär Nuder (finance minister under Persson). He's one of the few people who can save the party now, imo.

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Sahlin says the party is in a deep crisis of confidence and mentions the fact that only 22% of the employed voted for the party in the last election.

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Of course it deserved its own thread!

And I think you mentioned all of them. Well, except Damberg. Who is one of the better choices. Anders Lago has also been tossed around and I think he could also do a great job. I heard him talk on tv the other day about how the SAP must focus on putting the individual ahead of the system.

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Palm might be able to win back those young male working class-voters they've lost to SD.

But, yeah, Jämtin sucks. Fridolin is good as long as he can keep his maturity.

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I'm hearing more and more Damberg-buzz from my SAP friends. And more and more anti-Östros, anti-Österberg buzz.

[Gustaf]

I have to mention Lena Sommestad, since a friend of mine is heavily involved in her campaign. Also, Damberg has to be mentioned - my sources had him as a favourite before. My sources also tell me that Palm is out.

Östros is also a candidate, but I can't see him getting anywhere.

As a final note, I saw Pär Nuder live in Helsinki this fall and I thought he was charismatic enough.

[Gustaf]

I'd like to add a couple of things:

1. The SAP leadership committee basically said two things:
         a) Pär Nuder, change your mind. PLEASE, PLEASE!
         b) Damberg and Palm, fck off.

At least that was my interpretation when reading between the lines.

2. The Green race in my opinion is between Romson and Valtersson, with the latter being the favourite. (Fridolin, as mentioned, is safe for the male position)

I was actually briefly involved as political advisor to the Sommestad campaign. I gave input on what artists she should highlight as her favourites for a tv-interview. She didn't care about the advice though. The problem with her campaign is basically that she doesn't care about selling herself to be electable and doesn't want to be leader badly enough to do what it takes. She's very much the idealist candidate in the race.

One of my active Social Democratic friends told me the party is ed and they're aiming for 2022.

[Gustaf]

Short update. Not much going on at the moment. However some political experts have been saying we can expect the electoral committee to announce a nomine in about two to three weeks. The end is near

Quite surprisingly there appear to be lots of Östros buzz in the media as of lately. I'm not sure what to make of it. I've said through out that he didn't have the least bit chance as Sahlin's closest ally and advisor, but now he's starting to pop up on the horizon again. Guess this means I need to make a summery of him as well.

Do you have any info about this, Gustaf? You seem to have more inside-sources than I. Are they really desperate enough to nominate Östros?   

My people tell me Österberg is a lock whom one should bet money on. My sources aren't high ranking or anything though.

I also can't really see Östros get it. Sommestad seems to lack the institutional support (and also the political will - she refuses to say things she doesn't believe in to get more centrist support. My friend on her campaign was kind of pissed about it).

Damberg and Palm seems to have faded, Nuder is unwilling.

I guess it does sound like Österberg quite a bit. He seems to have the right balance of not being a Persson-man but still have experience and insider support.

[Gustaf]

Gustaf, how come all your friends are SAP insiders?

You think I'm sad enough that those people are my only friends?

I have friends who can qualify as insiders in at least 4, maybe 5 of the major parties. And I know at least one person from each party if we count voting. And then of course people who don't give a damn.

Again, we're not talking high-profile insiders. I'm friends with most of the SAPers at my university because they're obscenely overrepresented among those who have interests beyond making a lot of money. They're very active in the SAP student and youth organizations and obviously know a lot of the people there. Then I'm also a close friend to a guy who is a childhood friend of Lena Sommestad's sons (I'm friends with them via him, although I can't say I know them that well) and is involved in her campaign. 

[Gustaf]

Which 4-5 of the major parties if I might ask?

S, M, FP and V. C is a bit of a stretch. I can't think of anyone I know personally with any sort of position in KD or MP (although I do know people who do).

[Gustaf]

Impressive Personally I only have friends who're C-insiders. All my friends from other parties are unfortunatley just low-ranking members.

Well, most of the people I know aren't really high-ranking (although I do know a couple of MPs). But they're sufficiently positioned to have interesting information to spread once in a while.

[Gustaf]

If you're even halfway active in a political party you can pick up all sorts of weird and wonderful information you might not otherwise.

Yeah. One guy I know has represented V in his municipality on the board for school issues (or something) which is a really unglamorous unpaid position. Another guy ran for V and was almost elected on the local level in another municipality. Those aren't major positions obviously, but they can offer insight into what happens in the internal discussions.

[Gustaf]

Tabloid Expressen claims to have talked with 15 districts (out of a total of 25ish) in the SAP and asked them to name what candidates they're considering. 14 out of the 15 mention Österberg, while 6 mention Damberg.

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There probably is a Stockholm-bias against Österberg in the media. On the other hand, there is an anti-Stockholm bias in his favour in the SAP. So, there.

I kind of feel sorry for poor Ibrahim Baylan. Since the new party chairman will be a man they must have a woman as party secretary so he's gonna get fired. Not that he was good or anything, but still.

[Gustaf]

I kind of feel sorry for poor Ibrahim Baylan. Since the new party chairman will be a man they must have a woman as party secretary so he's gonna get fired. Not that he was good or anything, but still.

Really, that's how it works ? I'm all for parity but this seems rather silly.

It isn't a done deal and certainly not official yet, but it has been flouted in the media and it seems to be a likely outcome.

[Gustaf]

Baylan would have been fired anyway, he's an increadibly lousy Party Secretary.

Still you'd think SAP would have learned the lesson from Mona Sahlin, that to prioritise gender over competense isn't a good thing. Intrestingly enough all the other major parties (with the exception of the Sweden Democrats of course) manage to have several women in the top without affermative action.

Oh and I'm sorry for not updating you guys. I know I said we'd likly know the nominee by the end of this week, however there's been an intresting development. You see the Social Democrats work on consensus, everybody has to agree before the Electoral Committee can choose a nomine... and three (or potentionally more) left-wing regional party chairmen are reported to be blocking all of the committee's candidates, and will only stop doing so if Electoral Committee agree to nominate a left-winger (suppousebly Veronica Palm) for Party Secretary, as well as nominating more left-wingers to the party's Excecutive Council.

 

Well, the Social Democrats is a predominantly male party (like M). All the other parties have a lot of women so it's easier for them to achieve parity.

Most SAP members are, amusingly, middle-aged, white collar men living in the suburbs. But they don't like to talk about that since they're supposed to be a workers' movement.

This whole debate does remind me of the time the news reported that the most gender-equal party (can't recall which, think it might have been KD) was one which had 53% female MPs. Apparently that beat the 50-50 distribution that someone else had.

[Gustaf]

And what do you know, Ibrahim Baylan announcing today that he will not stay on as Party Secretary. Enter stage left Veronica Palm. (or Ylva Johansson)

Unless Damberg is party leader, then Palm is out since they are both from Stockholm.

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My friend tells me that Östros would probably be the favourite if it weren't for the fact that no one knows who would replace him as shadow minister of finance...

His guess was:

Party Leader: Österberg
Finance: Östros
Labour market: Palm
Education: Damberg
Party secretary: I think he thought this was going to be Messing, but I can't recall entirely.

But Pagrotsky would be awesome. It's not out of the question for me to vote S if he takes over.

[Gustaf]

Congress delegate and former chair of LO (the national organization for blue-collar trade unions, a powerful part of the SAP), Stig Malm today called the election process "pure Stalinism" and complained that the elected delegates don't actually get to have a say. Kent Härstedt, another delegate and SAP MP agrees.

Sahlin counters by pointing out that LO is just as undemocratic!

The various contenders say various non-committal fluff to keep on the good side of the people who will pick the leader.

I think the SAP sort of failed to realize how ridiculous they're looking.

[Gustaf]

Pagrotsky has said no, it seems.

From the smoke-filled rooms, rumour has it that Östros is now the favourite, believe it or not. Damberg is still blocked by the left and Österberg seems to be viewed more as a compromise option than as a real option. Juholt seems to be more of a desperate play by the left than a serious option and Sommestad seems to have vanished.

Messing, Nuder and Eneroth have all said no, of course.

[Gustaf]

Former PM, Göran Persson apparently has called around "scaring" people into supporting Östros!

[Gustaf]

It's pretty crazy. Juholt seems to be a bit of a goofball: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nvs6DIRJpeo

[Gustaf]

He looks a bit like Lukasjenko, doesn't he?

I think it's a better choice than Österberg or Östros, at least. Although it's certainly a gamble. He has said that he opposes renewing party policy.

[Gustaf]

He has promised to shave it if they win in 2014.