SAP leadership race and other stuff

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

That sort of thing happens a lot in these situations; a function of name-recognition and memories of winning elections rather than much else.

Yeah I recall reading on here that Blair had a similar boost in popularity in the last of the Brown days.

Do keep us briefed on the Green leadership race!

Ok, I'll make a post about it soon.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Green Leadership Election

The Swedish Green Party does, in difference to their Social Democratic friends, have a simple and open method of electing people to leadership positions. While the very secretive SAP Electoral Committee works behind closed doors to find one single option to allow their members to have a YES/NO vote on, the Green Party has a real open and democratic race with multiple candidates. Although I should say races, because the Greens sticks out from the other parties in that they‘ve had two leaders ever since the party’s foundation, one male and one female, in the name of equality.

The General Election proved to be a great success for the party both nationally and locally, and the party’s current leaders Maria Wetterstrand and Peter Eriksson remain extremely popular. Unfortunately for them however, the Green party has a term-limit of nine years for their leaders, and they will thus need to be replaced at the party’s convention in May. In difference to the Social Democrats, there is no shortage of suitable candidates. And the hopeful candidates are already lining-up running blogs, writing letters to news papers, making weird statements, (and so on...) in order to gather as much support as possible before the convention.

Let us have a closer look at the candidates. I think it’s a good idea to begin with the male leader, as that race is basically finished already.

Gustav Fridolin



Fridolin is a young, energetic, and charismatic MP from southern Sweden, and one of the more well known Green politicians. He holds the record as the youngest person ever to have served in the Swedish Parliament, as he was only 19-years-old the first time he was elected.

Now Fridolin is special, as he is actually from the same city as me, went to High School with my sister (they didn’t know each other well though) and I have met and talked to him on several occasions, the last time being in December. He’s a charming person, very charismatic and passionate about politics. An ideal leader. Like any person, he isn’t without faults though. He is in fact very radical and very left-wing. In debates and interviews he can also come off as arrogant and unpleasant. Something that could scare away the many moderate swing-voters the party gained in ’10, and recreate the image of the Greens as a fringe one-issue party that his predecessors worked so hard to destroy.

That won’t stop him from being elected though. Fridolin crushes all of his potential opponents in name-recognition and star power. He’s already well known and popular. Fridolin will sweep the leadership job in a landslide.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

While the male leader is as good as a done deal already, the female leader position is in doubt and  will likely become very competitive. As it looks at the moment, it’s between these four women.

Mikaela Valtersson



Valtersson, who’s the Green Whip in parliament and former President for the Stockholm County Green Party, is the party’s economic expert and spokesperson. She is by far the most qualified and experienced candidate for the job. She belongs to the right of the party, and has been criticised from the left for being too market-liberal. During the ’10 election she was heavily involved in the Red-Green cooperation and is thus a skilled negotiator. She does however appear a bit grey and boring, something that might not matter too much next to Fridolin. Her right-wing lean might also be good to balance out his radical left-wing ideas. Another advantage might be that she is one of the most well known candidates of the female bunch. (That isn’t really saying much however, they're all rather unknown) 

Bodil Ceballos



Ceballos, another Green MP, is an interesting candidate as she represents both the International Green party, as well as the rural small town Green party. She is the Greens most experienced member when it comes to foreign policy. She’s worked in EU for many years, and represented the party in the Foreign Policy Committee in parliament for years. But she’s also a person with very strong ties to rural Sweden. Although she’s worked for years in Stockholm, she’s refused, and continues to refuse to leave her farmer home and move there. She’s talked and written a lot about the need to focus more on rural areas. It is well known that the party is weak in the rural parts of Sweden. Ceballos might be what is needed to break through to them.

Gunvor G. Ericson



I will admit that this woman is quite a big unknown to me, and I haven’t been able to find much information either. From the small amount of info I have though she appears to be left within the party and that she’s very interested in Health and Social issues. Ericson seems to have a long experience as a politician on the local level, but is relatively new to the national stage. I’d say she’s the dark-horse of the race.

Åsa Romson



Romson is new to parliament, and was elected there for the first time in ’10.  So at a first glance she’d seem to be an unlikely person to become leader, but she’s been a leading Green politician in Stockholm’s local politics for almost a decade, and was during the 90’s a member of the Greens’ Executive Council.  She has been very critical of the left-right political spectrum, claiming that the battle between Socialism and Capitalism was the battle of yesterday.  She’s been critical of the Red-Green coalition, and has opened the door to more cooperation between the Greens and the Alliance.

Now that’s obviously something that  could hurt her  chances to succeed in the leadership election, bur Romson has an advantage that all the other female candidates lack. She is the only one of them with lots of experience when it comes to environmental politics, and from what I’ve read of her and the other candidates, she’s the only one who’s really campaigning on the environmental issues. Valtersson talks economy, Ceballos talks about rural development and foreign policy, Ericson is focusing on health insurance and social security. Only Romson is running with the environment as her main theme, in a party that is built up on and around environmental politics. She’s also a visionary, focusing not on the small every-day questions, but on more abstract universal goals, something I believe can be very attractive to Green Party members.       

I'd personally say Valtersson or Ramson are the most likely winners, but I'm not willing to put nay money on that.

[Gustaf]

I'd like to add a couple of things:

1. The SAP leadership committee basically said two things:
         a) Pär Nuder, change your mind. PLEASE, PLEASE!
         b) Damberg and Palm, fck off.

At least that was my interpretation when reading between the lines.

2. The Green race in my opinion is between Romson and Valtersson, with the latter being the favourite. (Fridolin, as mentioned, is safe for the male position)

I was actually briefly involved as political advisor to the Sommestad campaign. I gave input on what artists she should highlight as her favourites for a tv-interview. She didn't care about the advice though. The problem with her campaign is basically that she doesn't care about selling herself to be electable and doesn't want to be leader badly enough to do what it takes. She's very much the idealist candidate in the race.

One of my active Social Democratic friends told me the party is ed and they're aiming for 2022.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Short update. Not much going on at the moment. However some political experts have been saying we can expect the electoral committee to announce a nomine in about two to three weeks. The end is near

Quite surprisingly there appear to be lots of Östros buzz in the media as of lately. I'm not sure what to make of it. I've said through out that he didn't have the least bit chance as Sahlin's closest ally and advisor, but now he's starting to pop up on the horizon again. Guess this means I need to make a summery of him as well.

Do you have any info about this, Gustaf? You seem to have more inside-sources than I. Are they really desperate enough to nominate Östros?   

[Gustaf]

Short update. Not much going on at the moment. However some political experts have been saying we can expect the electoral committee to announce a nomine in about two to three weeks. The end is near

Quite surprisingly there appear to be lots of Östros buzz in the media as of lately. I'm not sure what to make of it. I've said through out that he didn't have the least bit chance as Sahlin's closest ally and advisor, but now he's starting to pop up on the horizon again. Guess this means I need to make a summery of him as well.

Do you have any info about this, Gustaf? You seem to have more inside-sources than I. Are they really desperate enough to nominate Östros?   

My people tell me Österberg is a lock whom one should bet money on. My sources aren't high ranking or anything though.

I also can't really see Östros get it. Sommestad seems to lack the institutional support (and also the political will - she refuses to say things she doesn't believe in to get more centrist support. My friend on her campaign was kind of pissed about it).

Damberg and Palm seems to have faded, Nuder is unwilling.

I guess it does sound like Österberg quite a bit. He seems to have the right balance of not being a Persson-man but still have experience and insider support.

[Insula Dei]

Gustaf, how come all your friends are SAP insiders?

[Gustaf]

Gustaf, how come all your friends are SAP insiders?

You think I'm sad enough that those people are my only friends?

I have friends who can qualify as insiders in at least 4, maybe 5 of the major parties. And I know at least one person from each party if we count voting. And then of course people who don't give a damn.

Again, we're not talking high-profile insiders. I'm friends with most of the SAPers at my university because they're obscenely overrepresented among those who have interests beyond making a lot of money. They're very active in the SAP student and youth organizations and obviously know a lot of the people there. Then I'm also a close friend to a guy who is a childhood friend of Lena Sommestad's sons (I'm friends with them via him, although I can't say I know them that well) and is involved in her campaign. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Which 4-5 of the major parties if I might ask?

[Gustaf]

Which 4-5 of the major parties if I might ask?

S, M, FP and V. C is a bit of a stretch. I can't think of anyone I know personally with any sort of position in KD or MP (although I do know people who do).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Impressive Personally I only have friends who're C-insiders. All my friends from other parties are unfortunatley just low-ranking members.

[Gustaf]

Impressive Personally I only have friends who're C-insiders. All my friends from other parties are unfortunatley just low-ranking members.

Well, most of the people I know aren't really high-ranking (although I do know a couple of MPs). But they're sufficiently positioned to have interesting information to spread once in a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you're even halfway active in a political party you can pick up all sorts of weird and wonderful information you might not otherwise.

[Gustaf]

If you're even halfway active in a political party you can pick up all sorts of weird and wonderful information you might not otherwise.

Yeah. One guy I know has represented V in his municipality on the board for school issues (or something) which is a really unglamorous unpaid position. Another guy ran for V and was almost elected on the local level in another municipality. Those aren't major positions obviously, but they can offer insight into what happens in the internal discussions.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Ah well when I said low-ranking I meant it as in "members who're not active out-side of election years, and who've never hold any elected seats (including school boards and the sort) My highest-ranking friend is only a member of a City Board (Kommunstyrelse), and President of Skåne's Centre Party Youth, but he knows a lot of MPs and people in the C leadership, so he still has all the information you could wish for.


   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Oh and for the people intrested, the Greens held a debate/question-time for all their leader candidates this weekend in Stockholm. I haven't been able to find a transcript, or recording, so I don't have any more info, except that more debates/question times are apperently planned.

But here's some pics.


All the declared candidates, the important ones have already been covered.



EDIT: I've found out that there will be video of the debate made available in a near future, so I might do a short review of the candidates preformances after I've seen it. It's also rumoured there will be at least two more debates, one in Gothenburg, and one somewhere in Skåne (Malmö or Lund presumably)   

[Gustaf]

Tabloid Expressen claims to have talked with 15 districts (out of a total of 25ish) in the SAP and asked them to name what candidates they're considering. 14 out of the 15 mention Österberg, while 6 mention Damberg.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

A few things I've discovered latly:

Aftonbladet really really really really really really really don't want Sven-Erik Österberg to become leader. (They're not even trying to hide it)

Sven-Erik Österberg is going to be the new leader with 85% certainty. Media has completly stopped talking about all the other big names, and the only ones being mentioned are Thomas Östros (Sahlin II), Michael Damberg (Not happening), and Thomas Enroth (Who? I don't even know who this man is!) and Österberg. All signs are pointing towards him.

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Today the Electoral Committee is holding meetings with all the chairmans for the regional party organisations to decide on a nominee. Media is reporting that it's likly that we'll know who the next leader will be by this weeks end. Stay tuned.

Also, either Aftonbladet knows something no one else knows, or their anti-Österberg campaign reaches new ridiculous levels.

 

[Gustaf]

There probably is a Stockholm-bias against Österberg in the media. On the other hand, there is an anti-Stockholm bias in his favour in the SAP. So, there.

I kind of feel sorry for poor Ibrahim Baylan. Since the new party chairman will be a man they must have a woman as party secretary so he's gonna get fired. Not that he was good or anything, but still.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I kind of feel sorry for poor Ibrahim Baylan. Since the new party chairman will be a man they must have a woman as party secretary so he's gonna get fired. Not that he was good or anything, but still.

Really, that's how it works ? I'm all for parity but this seems rather silly.

[Gustaf]

I kind of feel sorry for poor Ibrahim Baylan. Since the new party chairman will be a man they must have a woman as party secretary so he's gonna get fired. Not that he was good or anything, but still.

Really, that's how it works ? I'm all for parity but this seems rather silly.

It isn't a done deal and certainly not official yet, but it has been flouted in the media and it seems to be a likely outcome.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Baylan would have been fired anyway, he's an increadibly lousy Party Secretary.

Still you'd think SAP would have learned the lesson from Mona Sahlin, that to prioritise gender over competense isn't a good thing. Intrestingly enough all the other major parties (with the exception of the Sweden Democrats of course) manage to have several women in the top without affermative action.

Oh and I'm sorry for not updating you guys. I know I said we'd likly know the nominee by the end of this week, however there's been an intresting development. You see the Social Democrats work on consensus, everybody has to agree before the Electoral Committee can choose a nomine... and three (or potentionally more) left-wing regional party chairmen are reported to be blocking all of the committee's candidates, and will only stop doing so if Electoral Committee agree to nominate a left-winger (suppousebly Veronica Palm) for Party Secretary, as well as nominating more left-wingers to the party's Excecutive Council.

 

[Gustaf]

Baylan would have been fired anyway, he's an increadibly lousy Party Secretary.

Still you'd think SAP would have learned the lesson from Mona Sahlin, that to prioritise gender over competense isn't a good thing. Intrestingly enough all the other major parties (with the exception of the Sweden Democrats of course) manage to have several women in the top without affermative action.

Oh and I'm sorry for not updating you guys. I know I said we'd likly know the nominee by the end of this week, however there's been an intresting development. You see the Social Democrats work on consensus, everybody has to agree before the Electoral Committee can choose a nomine... and three (or potentionally more) left-wing regional party chairmen are reported to be blocking all of the committee's candidates, and will only stop doing so if Electoral Committee agree to nominate a left-winger (suppousebly Veronica Palm) for Party Secretary, as well as nominating more left-wingers to the party's Excecutive Council.

 

Well, the Social Democrats is a predominantly male party (like M). All the other parties have a lot of women so it's easier for them to achieve parity.

Most SAP members are, amusingly, middle-aged, white collar men living in the suburbs. But they don't like to talk about that since they're supposed to be a workers' movement.

This whole debate does remind me of the time the news reported that the most gender-equal party (can't recall which, think it might have been KD) was one which had 53% female MPs. Apparently that beat the 50-50 distribution that someone else had.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And what do you know, Ibrahim Baylan announcing today that he will not stay on as Party Secretary. Enter stage left Veronica Palm. (or Ylva Johansson)