Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

Gustaf (or anyone else), what do you see as most likely coalition if the Sweden Democrats get in ?

Minority government by either side ?

Minority government by the Center-Right coalition, backed by the SD (just like in Holland) ?

(Is that even possible, what do the leaders of the Center-Right coalition say to that ?)

Or a grand coalition between the Social Democrats and the Moderates ? What is the leader´s position on this ?

If it´s like in Austria, politicians from the major parties are not talking much about possible coalitions before the elections, but maybe the Swedish leaders have more to say, just like in Germany.

Also: What are the main election topics in Sweden right now and what are the positions of the parties ?

Thx.

Lots of questions there!

First off, Swedish politicians used to be very secretive about possible coalitions before elections. This time, all the current parties in parliament are locked into one of the two alliances - Alliance for Sweden on the right side and the redgreen bloc on the other. They're refusing to speculate on what will happen if SD gets in, mostly.

No one wants to cooperate with SD and it's probably political suicide for most if not all parties. We're not in a Danish or Dutch situation just yet. There is a possibility of the centre-right ruling with passive support from SD (they did that 1991-1994 with New Democracy, a previous xenophobic party, playing the role of SD) but I doubt it. Even that would be controversial and they wouldn't trust SD.

SD really, really, really (did I say really?) loathe, detest and hate Mona Sahlin, the leader of S, so there can never be any kind of even passive support on that side.

So there are really 3 possibilities -

1. A centrist party switching sides
2. A grand coalition
3. Passive support from the losing bloc

There was some talk about 3 earlier in the campaign. The idea was that the bloc which got fewer votes would gracefully admit defeat and give passive support for the winning side to prevent SD from gaining influence. It seems to have been dropped though and I doubt it would work.

2 has also been discussed in the media, but not at all entertained by politicians. I doubt it would become reality, feelings between M and S are very hostile and there is no tradition of grand coalitions in Sweden. All the other parties would feel betrayed as well.

1 is the most realistic one and leading politicians of the smaller parties have mentioned it, but always in terms of a party from the other side joining them, never the other way around. It would have to be MP from the redgreen side and probably C or FP from the blue side. The idea seems to be that whoever gets the most votes would lure over a party from the other side.

In my opinion, the best bet here, regardless of who gets the most votes, is MP switching. They have never been a party with bloc loyalty and has cooperated with the right quite a bit on the local level and on certain issues nationally as well. They could also cast themselves as saving the country from SD which is something they could hope to sell to their voters.

Neither C nor FP could ever work with V, imo. They would probably demand V getting kicked out to be passive support and that would mean a minority government anyway. Also, everyone knows that a centre-right party switching to the left always gets punished by the voters.

[Gustaf]

Issues:

It's mostly about the economy. The dividing line is that the centre-right wants to make it more rewarding to work, so they have cut taxes on wages earned by working (disproportionately so as to benefit those with lower incomes) while cutting sick leave and unemploymeny benefits.

The left now wants to partially roll back this by raising taxes on the two thirds with highest incomes from work while cutting taxes for everyone who doesn't work (retired, unemployed and people on sick leave). [editorial]Cutting taxes for retired CEOs and unemployed lawyers while raising them on hard working nurses and construction workers, that's justice, equality and redistribution in the left's world![/editorial]

That's the main dividing line when it comes to economic policy. M has pledged not to cut taxes further but instead spend what excess revenue there is on welfare services, like education and hospital care.

The big debate is not really about issue positions but on which issues to debate. The right wants it to be about managing the economy, because the government is very well trusted, especially the PM and the Finance Minister, while people has very low confidence in the leftist politicians on that issue. Ideologically, however, people wants to be viewed as good in Sweden. That's why we're the only country to give 1% of GDP in foreign aid, as recommended by the UN*, don't have a xenophobic party, "unswedish" is a positive adjective, you say thank you at least 3 times when paying for your groceries, stand in line when being told to, have rainbow flags on the buses when the pride festival is on and so on.

So people prefer to feel leftwinged if welfare issues are discussed.



*That is a blatant lie, I think there are 3 or 4 other countries who do it too, Japan and Holland and Norway, etc

[Gustaf]

New poll by Sweden's best pollster, SIFO:
http://www.svd.se/nyheter/politik/valet2010/opinionsundersokning-2-5-augusti-2010_5103421.svd?service=graphic

M: 32.6%
S: 30.6%
MP: 10.0%
FP: 6.3%
KD: 5.7%
V: 5.4%
C: 4.7%
SD: 4.1%
Others: 0.7%

Blue bloc: 49.3%
Red-Green: 46.0%
SD: 4.1%

Government definitely ahead but margin isn't very big, most crucially it isn't big enough to yield a majority if SD gets in. Chaos reigns, as von Trier would have said.

[Gustaf]

SD really, really, really (did I say really?) loathe, detest and hate Mona Sahlin, the leader of S, so there can never be any kind of even passive support on that side.

She must be an extraordinarily wonderful person if the neo-fascists in the SD hate her so much. I think anyone who is hated so much by a party of skinheads, neo-nazis and racists should wear their hatred as a badge of honour!

Oh, I'm sure she does. I hardly thinks she is a wonderful person though, to be honest.

She has profiled herself as very pro-immigration historically, which is the main reason why they hate her.

On that topic, FP is reaching for racist voters so much that their arms are beginning to hurt.

[Gustaf]

And it's a problem for the same reason the expense scandal was a problem in Britain.

Hysteria?

Yes. That does seem to be what he meant. Oh, and also lack of oversight at normal times, and the fact that for this very reason it just confirmed what everybody always assumed about these people (mostly of the other party) but couldn't prove.

The thing with the Sahlin stuff is really two notable aspects:

1. She did it and was forced to resign. Then she came back and did it again.
2. She infamously said once that it is cool to pay taxes. People find that hypocritical.

[Gustaf]

According to a recent SIFO-poll, when asked "Which political party do you trust the most when it comes to jobs and unemployment?" 35% say M and only 25% S.

M: 35%
S:25%
FP:3%
V: 3%
C: 2%
MP: 2%
KD: 1%
Unsure/Don't know: 29%

[Gustaf]

Oh, they're not anything like FPÖ or even the German FPD on those kind of issues. FP remains firmly the party of Swedish Jews, after all.

Sweden never had any ex-Nazis looking for a pretend-liberal party in which to hide which was the founding principle behind FPÖ.

FP basically takes voters who like their focused profile on education, immigration, education, Europe, education, being pro-US and education. As well as education. 

[Gustaf]

FP is still one of the most pro-immigration parties in Sweden and among the centre-right parties they probably have more immigrant representatives than any of the others.

It was, after all, the then leader of FP who stormed out of a live debate because he refused to sit in the same studio as the leader of the xenophobic New Democracy.

[Gustaf]

It was, after all, the then leader of FP who stormed out of a live debate because he refused to sit in the same studio as the leader of the xenophobic New Democracy.

From my experience the only party the Sd hates more than S is Fp, especially Westerberg is considered the devil in person. 

Yeah, it's kind of odd that they of all parties would go for the racist vote since they're actually most removed from SD in terms of their core voters and their ideology.

[Gustaf]

The campaign song of MUF (M's youth organization): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BxS-C01OMU

Those guys...I think it might be possible to appreciate this even without understanding the lyrics. It's called "Sverige jobbar" which means "Sweden works"

[Gustaf]

I think I made a post in this very thread on who SD voters are.

[Gustaf]

Here is what I said: "Sweden Democratic voters tend to be craftsmen and other such people who are culturally working class but economically fairly well-off. They are thus the anti-thesis of the typical V-voters who are poor academics. "

I didn't write it, but the same study pointed out that most SD voters had, once upon a time, been S-voters but many of them had made the transition via other parties.

The core probably consist more of natural S-voters than of natural centre-right voters, but marginal voters right now are probably more centre-right. I know this from applying eyeball econometrics to polls over the last year or so.

I think there is also a bunch of rich, white, racist M-voters in Skåne who belong to the core group of voters in SD.

[Gustaf]

I'm seriously starting to wonder if the Social Democrats actually want to loose this election. <.<

The new proposal from Carin Jämtin, the leading Social Democratic politician in Stockholm City is... Partly State Funded Butlers for people who use Stockholm's underground metro-system. Why is she suggesting this? It's Stockholm, so she has about nil chance of ever becoming mayor, but this will seriously hurt the party's national campaign.

Joke party, ahoy!

Yeah...it's...strange. It's especially strange given the party's stubborn opposition to "Rut" (which basically makes it cheaper for everyone to hire domestic services such as cleaning or cooking). This just seems to be a stupider version of that idea.

[Gustaf]

Oh, and as Sahlin noted in her speech the other day, "Sweden risks becoming like many other countries" if the right wins again. Oh no, Swedish exceptionalism, where did you go?

[Gustaf]

I'm seriously starting to wonder if the Social Democrats actually want to loose this election. <.<

The new proposal from Carin Jämtin, the leading Social Democratic politician in Stockholm City is... Partly State Funded Butlers for people who use Stockholm's underground metro-system. Why is she suggesting this? It's Stockholm, so she has about nil chance of ever becoming mayor, but this will seriously hurt the party's national campaign.

Joke party, ahoy!

Yeah...it's...strange. It's especially strange given the party's stubborn opposition to "Rut" (which basically makes it cheaper for everyone to hire domestic services such as cleaning or cooking). This just seems to be a stupider version of that idea.

Funny clips on youtube with young M-supporters walking around in the subway dressed as butlers. The guy interviewed in this one is someone I know a little bit, he goes to my school. He does an excellent butler accent too!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbfCOlvJgmg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChIFKuIR014&feature=player_embedded

[Gustaf]

How well will the Pirate Party do?

Not well enough that anyone will care, is probably the correct answer. Others overall does not have more than 1-2% so PP cannot have more than that currently.

[Gustaf]

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He sounds like Carl-Jan Grankvist... kind of looks like him too. Any relation?

How well will the Pirate Party do?

Depending on how well they're able to get the WOW-players to leave their computers and turn out to vote, between 0,5-1,5% of the vote maybe. I wouldn't mind it if they could steal some of the Sweden Democrats voters like they did in the European elections, thus causing them to fail to break 4%.

 

 

Not that I know of! He doesn't sound like that normally though.

[Gustaf]

The opposition has decided to make wise adjustments to their policies on property taxes. Too bad that they just seem to confuse people more when talking about it.

[Gustaf]

New poll from Synovate (2nd best pollster in Sweden):

S: 31.3%
M: 29.3%
MP: 10.8%
FP: 7.4%
KD: 5.9%
C: 5.1%
V: 4.4%
SD: 3.6%

Blue bloc: 47.8%
Red-Green bloc: 46.6%

Notable things: SD below 4%, S biggest party again, the government losing a little bit of ground. We will have to wait to see whether this is a trend of any sort.

[Gustaf]

I was just thinking about posting that poll.

Sd's numbers in this poll surprise me, as does V's numbers. If there's really been a decrease in their support I'm curious to know what might have caused that.

I'm still pretty confident. There's a big number of people that claim to be unsure, so a lot will be decided by the last weeks of campaigning, and I think the Alliance has an advantage there.

Gustaf, do you know if there's a site or something where I can see the pollsters final polls for the 2006 election. I'd like to know how close each pollster was.

And as I'm curious, which pollster do you consider to be best, if Synovate is 2nd?

Sifo is best. Synovate is second, as noted. Those two are the reliable ones in my opinion. Demoskop and Skop have been around for a while, they used to really suck, but are getting better with time. Novus seems ok, but they don't really have much of a track record.

Note, that Sifo is not the best every single election but they consistently do pretty well (I think 2002 might be an exception, but many did badly there).

For instance, Sifo was the only pollster, IIRC, to get the euro referendum down correctly.

[Gustaf]

Batjlan (might be misspelled), second-in-commans for S in Stockholm has admitted to being the person responsible for the butler idea. He maintained that it was a stroke of genius (yes, he himself called his own, pathetically stupid, idea ingenious).

Meanwhile, the shadow finance minister, Thomas Östros, has called the proposal a postmodernist irony and added that it won't go very far.

In other news, a couple of low ranking trade unionist/S-politicians (yes, it is usually the same thing) have been arrested for bringing prostitutes to their trade union financed apartements. And one of them refuses to drop his candidacy, according to a tabloid front page yesterday.

In even more other news a low-ranking civil servant/member of government party (FP) (also usually the same thing) has been found to have compared islam to national socialism on his blog 4 years ago before he was hired. Two pieces of important election news for y'all.

[Gustaf]

Even if SD gets in, it doesn't matter with this result. It is probably my dream result, to be honest. And I would like it noted that I hailed Sifo as the best pollster before this poll came out!

[Gustaf]

There has been a debate on whether to test pupils for drugs (whether schools should be allowed to do it against the will of a pupil, basically).

As part of an interview relating to that, a team of journalists asked the minister of justice and the shadow minister of justice whether they would agree to a drug test. Both said yes, although the shadow minister, Thomas Bodström, seemed a bit nervous. When told what substances would be tested for he immiediately changed his mind and said he didn't feel like it because he was too sweaty.

I don't know what to say beyond "lol"

[Gustaf]

Breaking news: most millionaires support M in completely unscientific poll of 1 500 millionaires made by a magazine for millionaires.

M: 78%
FP: 7%
KD: 6%
C: 2.5%
SD: 1.9%
MP: 1.2%
S: 1.2%
Others: 0.8%
V: 0.3%
PP: 0.2%
FI: 0.1%

In other news, media is ignoring Bodström's use of illegal drugs and the government wants to cut VAT for restaurants.

[Gustaf]

New Synovate poll:

M: 30.9%
S: 29.2%
MP: 9.7%
FP: 6.7%
V: 6.1%
KD: 5.7%
C: 5.4%

SD: 3.4%

Blue: 48.7%
Redgreen: 45.0%

Margin for government: +3.7%