Pick a poll... any poll...

[Gustaf]

Bush is going after Nov 2nd if doest Win Florida & Ohio

I think he needs to win both.

He could win with only one, but I doubt it.

[Gustaf]

I still think that when all is said and done, Bush will have won in a landslide.  Probably his election victory will be by similar margins as his dad's victory over Dukakis in 1998.

That's unlikely but still possible, PV wise. Kerry almost certainly will get more EVs than Dukakis did, due to regional polarization.

[Gustaf]

The incumbent only has to tie, whereas the challenger has to win.  This condition owes itself to the fact that more delegations in the House are R than D.  Bush advantage.  Big states, with the exception of the 2nd and 4th most populous states, are likely to vote for Kerry.  Kerry advantage.  Are we to presume that your tacit assumption is that Kerry will take big states such as ohio and florida?  Or that he'll win enough medium states such as arizona or tennessee or louisiana?  Or in a bunch of small ones?  or in some combination thereof?  

Or are you saying that people all over the USA are thoroughly convinced that W is so confused or malevolent that they'll vote for Kerry in droves everywhere?


NEWS UPDATE:  PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENT IN SOUTH KOREA.

I think what he's saying is rather that whoever wins will swing both Florida and Ohio and win fairly big, so 3 EVs from Delaware won't matter one way or another.