2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[bore]

Bluntly, the lib dems performance was poor even in middle class suburbia. They didn't take winchester or cheltenham or cheadle or hazel grove, in the funniest result of the night they didn't even gain sheffield hallam. There were isolated actually good results also in those types of seats, but because they were exceptions, like with Labour, there is a real danger in interpreting them as a demographic responding positively to the parties programme, rather than a provisional, tactical, remain coalition.

The strategic issue for the Lib Dems going forward is that the more time that passes the more bizarre, contingent and unstable their 2010 coalition turns out to be. Because it made so little sense, except in the light of decades of political contingency, and because that has all been washed away, there is no way of recreating it. Pandering exclusively to any one of these demographics (students, very wealthy but liberal suburbia, the celtic fringe) will, even if it works, gives you a ceiling of 20 or so seats, trying to pander to all of them is incoherent and you'll get none of them. There is a clear path to becoming a sectional party for some tiny demographic, but there is no clear map to becoming a national party, and certainly no map that looks the same as the 2005 election.