SC Megathread 2020: Graham Crackers, Cunning-Ham Sandwiches and Duncan Donuts

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Have you decided to stay in by the way?

Yes. while write ins aren't allowed in the primary, I will continue to the general. I'm voting for Welch in the primary (the other guy, Cleveland, is very moderate afaik) but my goal is to get 3rd place since there's no other party running a candidate. The American Party had a candidate last time but not this time last time I checked.

After the last election, the American Party merged with some similarly insignificant moderate hero parties in other states to form the Alliance Party.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/RepJeffDuncan/status/1308865119619817473?s=20

They aren't being subtle.

Were they ever?

In any case, the only reason Duncan is in the thread title is the punning reference, not he was ever in any risk of losing in the general.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://twitter.com/stevemorris__/status/1314715904131895296?s=20

Jeeeeeeeeeeeesus H. Christ

I guess Graham is probably close to his black floor but I can imagine this alienating some white moderates

It's pretty clear to me that Graham was trying to ineptly draw a contrast between Jame Harrison and Tim Scott, so I don't think this'll cost Graham any votes, just keep him from gaining any.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

My post mortem is the same as my pre mortem:

Lean R, closer to Likely than Toss-Up. I wouldn't completely rule out an upset, but I think undecideds probably break for Graham.

Wrong just like Icespear and you said KY Gov was Likely R, how is a two point race Likely R

For one thing, SC has party line voting, so there will be some who vote R without casting an explicit vote for Graham.

Graham definitely benefited from people being able to vote for the party without voting for him directly.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Well, that goes to show you to not waste money in fruitless endeavors unless you are absolutely, 100% certain you can win it. Both parties did it this cycle, but it seems the Democrats did it moreso than the Republicans.

Agreed. South Carolina, it is clear from these results, will remain Safe R at all levels for the foreseeable future.

That was clear even before these results.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

To be fair, Graham did do worse than Trump, just not enough for the seat to flip. Compared to 2008, it looks like Graham has lost those willing to ticket split for a "moderate Republican". In another State, that could have hurt him, but unless there is an unexpected swing of this State towards Atlas red in the next six years, he should be safe in 2026.