Ukraine Crisis

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Tymoshenko advocated mass slaughter of Russians in leaked phone call.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In any case, even if it weren't a Russian fake, Yulia ain't in power.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.

It's not intended to convince us but the Russian people.  The more I read about this, the more I'm convinced that this was planned to distract the Russian people from their faltering economy.  Not that it was faltering badly, but Putin has good reason to be concerned about what even a slight falter might do to his popularity.  Now the economic problems can be blamed on the West, so I don't see Tsar Vladimir V being persuadable by the sanctions.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This kind of thing is troubling. It shows how disconnected from reality the Russian leadership is. There's no way any serious person would believe this stuff.

It's not intended to convince us but the Russian people.  The more I read about this, the more I'm convinced that this was planned to distract the Russian people from their faltering economy.  Not that it was faltering badly, but Putin has good reason to be concerned about what even a slight falter might do to his popularity.  Now the economic problems can be blamed on the West, so I don't see Tsar Vladimir V being persuadable by the sanctions.

That's Tsar Vladimir IV: His Imperial Majesty doesn't recognize the usurper False Vladimir.

I wasn't counting Vladimir Cyrillovich Romanov as Vladimir IV, but Vladimir Lenin.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At first glance it seems odd that Crimea will be moving their clocks ahead two hours.  Granted, the change in time zone is one more way of emphasizing they are not Ukraine, but a change of one hour would accomplish that.  However Russia for some weird reason is on permanent daylight savings, so if they only shifted one hour they'd be sharing the same time as Ukraine during the summer.  So instead of having a time zone close to solar time, the Crimea will be close to two hours ahead because of stupid politics that will keep them from having a reasonable time zone.

Russia (or at least western Russia) is on double summer time, isn't it? The first shift happened around when the USSR was formed and the second happened recently.

It's on permanent double time, summer and winter. Moscow Time is UTC+4 year round.  Arguably Moscow itself would naturally be UTC+2½, but half hour offsets aren't usually used, so you could make an argument that they are only on permanent summer time if you think UTC+3 is Moscow's "proper" time zone.  But both St. Petersburg and Sevastopol are properly UTC+2 and they are stuck using Moscow Time rather than adding another time zone.  Also Yekaterinburg Time is UTC+6 while by the sun it should be UTC+4, and similarly if you look at the rest of Russia as a whole it makes sense to speak of Russia being on permanent double time.

I can somewhat understand the logic of having overly broad time zones such as China's use of UTC+8 and India's use of UTC+5½ as universal national time zones despite spanning multiple time zones.  But the artificially advancing time all year that Russia does, especially to the extent Russia does, does not make sense.  (When you go fly from Vladivostok to Tokyo, you need to move your clock back 2 hours despite the fact that you flew southeast to get there.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Apparently Russians have declared Donetsk's independence from Ukraine.  Donetsk is in eastern Ukraine. 

Russian propaganda

Fixed.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Arrest of 70 "activists" in Luhansk, separatists declaring independence in Donetsk. Hostage taking in Kharkiv. Thinly veiled (or hardly veiled at all) Russian threats of interference. This thing is heating up and it looks like we are entering phase 2 of the conflict. It seems Putin will try his luck in the Eastern oblasts as well after the Crimea success. Thoughts?

Putin may not behind this.  In deciding to ride the back of the irredentist tiger, he may well have ended up with a more intense ride than he intended.  That isn't to say that he might be approving of this, just that he might not.  Crimea is a bite of Ukraine that while it would take some time to digest and will cause diplomatic problems for a few years, is something that could be reasonably be expected to be resolved in few years.

The pre-existing autonomous status of Crimea gave a definable endpoint that would enable the restoration of stability.  Going after Eastern Ukraine has the problem of a total lack of a definable endpoint short of gobbling up all of Ukraine.  He might be able to do it, but in doing so, he guarantees that the West will isolate Russia economically.

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't think Putin wants to make his country into a Chinese economic vassal, but that's what he risks if he goes for Ukraine.  If we do get a Chinese-Russian Axis, Putin will be playing the role of Mussolini, not that of Hitler in such an arrangement, and I think he's smart enough to realize that.

There is a significant amount of non-Western and non-Chinese economic actors in this World today (including most of Asia, all of Latin America, the Middle East and Africa), so I don't think its as simple as that.

Russia has developed its economy primarily by being a provider of raw resources. Europe and China are not only the most convenient markets for Russia geographically, they also are the ones that have the greatest demand for what Russia is set up to produce for export.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Regarding Japan I don't see the Japanese following a US/EU boycott of Russia. Especially not with the present leadership.  

While not a boycott, I don't see Japan cozying up to Russia either, especially as long as Russia continues to hold onto the Northern Territories.  Besides, Japan already has access to a variety of energy options, so it certainly won't pay a premium for Russian oil and gas, even if Russia were to build the necessary infrastructure to export them to the Pacific.  I also don't see Japan being stupid enough or desperate enough to addict itself to below-world market Russian energy if Russia were to offer it any.  So if Russia tries to play diplomacy with its resources in Asia, it'll have to do so further south and at added expense, and I don't really see where Russia would be interested unless it decides it needs to contain China.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Regardless of the situation in Ukraine (for the record, Putin is clearly awful and I would strongly oppose any further incursion into Ukraine given that his support even in the heavily Russian areas is somewhat flimsy at best), but the Kuril Islands are unambiguously Russian territory under the San Francisco Treaty and Japan's continued claim on them is a bit worrying given the nationalist trends of its government and populace. At least Russia's claimed responsibility for Stalin's many crimes.

But the question is, are the Northern Territories part of the Kuril Islands or are they littoral islands of Hokkaido?  They never were under Russian/Soviet control before 1945.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't think we're that out of the loop.

There are plenty of Ukrainian and Russian news services with English language coverage.

Even the ones that don't have it can be easily translated with Google.

We're seriously all probably better informed than the average Ukrainian.

And definitely better than the average Russian.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

One does wonder how much in control the Russians actually are of the pro-Russian militants.

I think, it is pretty safe to say, under pretty much complete control. Russian intelligence officers are deployed there in force. Make your own conclusions.

Problem is, those intelligence officers may have read more into their orders than they may have intended.  Even if they get privately punished later for doing so, the problem is Putin will likely find it impossible to undo they have done, since in order to do so he would effectively have to capitulate to the West.  However regardless of whether forces on the ground are exceeding their orders or they are following their orders, the effect is essentially the same.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Also, Russia's economy was apparently already deteriorating even before sanctions were imposed. 

That has been brought up before.  It's even entirely possible Putin has caused the crisis so as to give him an excuse for the economy once it becomes more apparent that it's gone bad.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While my sympathies are with the Ukrainians. even I have to to say that's some pretty blatant propaganda.  At least it's closer to reality than what Putin's friends have shat out.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Russian planes have been violating Ukrainian airspace.

Not good. How likely is it that the U.S. will break off diplomatic relations with Russia at this point?

Not likely at all.  I don't think that would happen even if Russian tanks roll into Donetsk.  What could happen is a total breaking off of economic relations, including severing of Russia from the world financial system which would severely hamper its trade even with those countries that continue to trade with it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If NATO was going to intervene over Ukraine they would have already. If there is a war between NATO and Russia it will start over the Baltics.

NATO will not intervene over Ukraine. However, conditional on his success in Ukraine, the probability that Putin will go further West is nearly 1.

Not really. To go further west, Putin needs unrest on a scale similar to Ukraine prior to the toppling of the previous government.  I don't see that happening in the Baltics.  At most he annexes Transnistria once it borders Russia, but the necessary conditions to go further west don't exist.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

european left just wanted to lose election.

"We are witnessing the emergence of a Nazi State fostered by the USA and the EU in Ukraine. Yesterday conflict in Odessa and other east Ukraine cities with nearly 50 victims shows the protagonist behavior of Nazi groups under the guidance of Kiev. The split that Ukraine society is living has been influenced by the willingness of USA and the EU to go against Russia deploying all kind of measures in order to isolate that country in a kind of Cold War revival. It is just the opposite to what should be recommended if peaceful coexistence was the desired aim.
One hundred years after the First World War Europe should not play with fire but on the contrary would favor diplomatic and peaceful solutions to all kind of international crisis. The ELP condemns the attitude of the EU on this conflict and also the brutal behavior of Kiev and urges all parts to solve the differences under the principle of dialogue within the rules of the UN. - See more at: http://www.european-left.org/positions/statement-party-european-left-pel-odessa-conflict#sthash.r1arbCKw.dpuf".

I see Putin has apparently revived the Soviet practice of providing funding for useful stooges in the West.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Altho, WHO is merely the continuation of the Health Organisation of the League of Nations, so should anything it does really be credited to the UN per se?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Altho, WHO is merely the continuation of the Health Organisation of the League of Nations, so should anything it does really be credited to the UN per se?

You propose the credit go to the League of Nations instead?

My point was more that even without a UN that attempts to solve international political problems, we'd have an organization doing the work of the WHO even without it being part of an ineffective world government.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

NATO says Russia may be about to invade. We are approaching the six year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Georgia. It may behoove Ukraine to temporarily declare a cease fire to remove any possible pretext for Russian intervention.

Because being supine worked do well in Crimea?  If Putin wants to invade, a mere cease-fire that his troops already in Ukraine won't abide by will not stop him.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

Precious or not, if Putin can't claim some fig leaf, he is quite unlikely to stop what he is doing.  Thanks to the downed airliner, there really is nothing more he can hope to gain right now without starting a full-scale war and a complete break with the West.  While Putin might well do that if the alternative is being perceived as having backed down, I don't think he desires that.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If we take Putin at his word, it's clear now that Russia is unable to control events on its side of its border with Ukraine.  Perhaps NATO should offer to send troops into Russia to help the situation be stabilized?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Today's Scandinavia and the World is somewhat humorous, tho not really accurate since Russia isn't admitting its obvious involvement.  I think I've realized why Putin bothers with such lies.  It's been said before in this thread that to solve this situation we need to find some way to allow Putin to save face.  Putin's lies are his effort to allow the West to save face.  We merely need accept the lies and then it is possible for us to accept the result.  Problem is, while it has worked before, the act has grown stale.  You know the old saying, "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me;" well Putin's trying to fool at least a third time.  Sad thing is, if he'd just waited a few years as had with Georgia, and waited until 2018 or so to take Novorossiya instead of trying to take it right after taking Ukraine, he might have gotten the West to swallow the lie.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Let's try giving the latest news a Russian spin:

<strawman>
Ukrainian fascist thugs cross border and attack the hands of the Western media that feed them.
</strawman>

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The Junta? I'd like to see the evidence of military leadership in that new government.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_and_Defense_Council_of_Ukraine
Not to mention the government lowering spending everywhere but the military which it has been increasing.

Being forced into a war because of Russians invading them, albeit Russians that Putin can convince a few fools Russia itself didn't send, would tend to force a government to increase defense spending.  Your complaint would be like complaining that FDR had increased military spending after Pearl Harbor.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Well, containment should be firmer. The last time I checked Russian trains still could get to Kaliningrad.

Do you really want a Kaliningrad Airlift?

Besides, until Europe has a replacement for Russian natural gas in place, there's not much more that will be done.