Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Keystone Phil]

We can get this started now that we have our first official challenger to declare - Joe Torsella

Many will remember Torsella from the bitter 2004 Democratic primary in PA 13. Torsella was favored to win but Schwartz won in a close upset. Torsella also is infamously known for the 4th of July celebration at the National Constitution Center where part of the stage collapsed, almost crushing then Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Torsella suffered injuries as a result of this accident. 

Torsella could be a force but I think he's angling for support in another PA 13 race. He might be wishing for a cleared primary field (which would mean a guarantee from State Representative Josh Shapiro that he will not enter the race for the House seat and actually committ to a Senate run or staying in the State House).

I'd love to see another Torsella vs. Schwartz race. It would be very interesting. Schwartz would have the traditional liberal group backing but Torsella would be a better match for the more populist Dems and the machine. Then again, two SE candidates could force Wagner into the race even though he's admitting that he's leaning towards a run for Governor.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, as I stated before, if 2010 looks like another year in the wilderness for the GOP, I'll probably vote for Torsella if he's the nominee. If it's looking like a good year for us, I'm either writing someone in or if it's Specter vs. Schwartz...ugh...don't make me say it...

[Keystone Phil]

With conservatives groups now making it quite clear that they're looking for someone to challenge Specter and since Toomey apparently said he's not interested, don't be shocked to hear our favorite former Senator's name mentioned. 

I already did my part, sending his people an e-mail, urging him to run. 

[Keystone Phil]

I received word back about Santorum running. He doesn't "intend" to run for the seat in 2010 but it was then mentioned that he has "family health issues and business obligations" so he won't be a candidate in 2010 (though he "hasn't shut the door" on a return to public office).

With conservatives groups now making it quite clear that they're looking for someone to challenge Specter and since Toomey apparently said he's not interested, don't be shocked to hear our favorite former Senator's name mentioned. 

I already did my part, sending his people an e-mail, urging him to run. 

You think Santorum will take on Specter in a primary?  I'd love to see that even more than Toomey.  It would be fair to say Schwartz or hell Bob Brady would demolish him.  Toomey at least hasn't had anything controversial on his plate.

You are such a hack that's unbelievable.

Bob Brady? Haha, yeah, ok. Again, saying for certain that he'd lose this far out is assinine. Saying he'd be demolished by Schwartz and Brady...incredible hubris. Bob Brady couldn't even win the Democratic nomination for Mayor in a city that he practically runs (he came in a distant third or fourth, by the way) when he was essentially crowned the Mayor and you expect him to run a statewide campaign? His campaign would be a laughing stock. Bob Brady isn't cut out for much dealing with substance. He has a safe House seat and won't get anything more.

[Keystone Phil]

43% want him gone. 40% want him to stay.

56% approve of the job he's doing. His rating among Republicans is 55%.

In other news, Casey's approval rating is 54%.

http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/othercities/pittsburgh/stories/2009/02/09/daily31.html

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum probably won't run.  He's been getting a lot of heat lately for an alleged affair with an illegal immigrant.  If he gets through this unscathed he might run for his old seat in 2012.  We'll see what happens.

I already said that he's basically ruled it out.

As for what you're talking about, that obviously isn't true. Make it something a little more believable (something that can't be disproven after a Google search) if you want to troll. 

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum probably won't run.  He's been getting a lot of heat lately for an alleged affair with an illegal immigrant.  If he gets through this unscathed he might run for his old seat in 2012.  We'll see what happens.

I already said that he's basically ruled it out.

As for what you're talking about, that obviously isn't true. Make it something a little more believable (something that can't be disproven after a Google search) if you want to troll. 

I'm only trolling if the guy who said that a senator would be outed was trolling.  That senator was Larry Craig, not that he needed outing because he screwed up.  I'd keep an eye on Santorum if I were you, he likes the men (especially non-English speaking men he can take advantage of), and it's not exactly a secret in certain parts of Pennsylvania.

I love you, Vander.

[Keystone Phil]

Why a superstar might not be needed to beat Specter - http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/hl_20090211_9594.php

It just goes over what we typically talk about here but it's the truth. A second or third tier candidate could beat the guy. This Glen Meakem guy (a Pittsburgh area millionaire and radio host) might be our shot. He said he is not a candidate right now but he's absolutely focused on seeing Specter get a primary challenge - http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/02/10/meakem-for-senate.aspx


I will almost definitely prefer Meakem to Luksik so I hope he does it.

[Keystone Phil]

There are apparently some questions (probably because he isn't an elected official with an established record) as to where Meakem stands on abortion and some other social issues. I saw he received mixed comments on a Pennsylvania conservative blog that I visit so that can be a major problem for him. One person said he's a fairly standard conservative who simply doesn't engage in the vicious rhetoric (Pro Life but doesn't hate those that are Pro Choice, against gay marriage without hating gays, etc.) which accurately describes my feelings. We'll see how accurate that is.

I worry a bit though since he was a Bill Scranton fan in 2006. I hope he doesn't disappoint.

[Keystone Phil]

Good article.  Now this guy has to win a General Election. 

Just curious Phil, and I'm not trying to be a hack or put you down, but do you have any pragmatism in you our you just like conservatives?

Yeah, you're not trying to be a hack... 

Whose campaign did we argue over night and day about four years back? Note that I supported her in the primary. Who did I vote for for Mayor in 2007? Knock off the hack routine.

 

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What am I getting from Specter now? Wouldn't it be hilarious if I decided to support a man that I can't stand for the sake of "pragmatism" only to see him go down in the General? I'm sorry but why aren't we debating that possibility, too?

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I'm confident that they can win, not that they will win. You, on the other hand, sit there nearly two years before a midterm election and proclaim that a pure liberal would definitely win the seat. I don't want to hear your reasons for why it could happen. We've been through it enough times. The point remains that I am reasonable and say that something could happen (especially given the right conditions). You say that your side would win and you're absolutely certain.

Don't bother responding if that's not going to change because at this point, it's like we're both talking to a brick wall.

[Keystone Phil]

I'd love for this to be true - Gerlach for Senate? - http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2009/02/arlen_specter_losing_support_o.html


This is a candidate people like Don can't call an extreme conservative.

Jim Roddy, chairman of the Allegheny County Republican Committee, suggested two names: Pat Toomey and U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, R-Chester Springs.

Toomey, a conservative former Congressman from the Lehigh Valley, narrowly lost to Specter in the 2004 primary. But Toomey has said he is not running for the Senate.

Representatives for Gerlach said they have no indication that he is considering anything other than a potential run for governor.


No indication better equal "Yeah, we're thinking about it."

[Keystone Phil]

I like Gerlach, and he's got geography on his side.  If you ask me, and you should probably ask Phil instead, I'd say you have to be from SEPA these days to survive.  At least as a Republican.  We've lost so much ground there that we need every advantage we can get.

Gerlach would be absolutely perfect for a primary (ok, maybe not "absolutely perfect" for a primary) and for a General.

In the primary, he unites the anti Specter voters. They're looking for basically anyone right now. He also cuts into Specter's SE PA base. If Gerlach gets in this and runs a competent campaign, he wins. There's very little chance for a Specter victory. Gerlach can't be tagged as far right and has the SE PA argument on his side for the General.

In the General, well, like I said the guy isn't a wingnut and can't be labeled as one. He is popular with just enough people in his swing district, meaning no chance of a blow out down here. He'd definitely be more in touch with voters out west and in the T. The thing about Gerlach is that everyone knows he's electable statewide. That's why he's doing this Gubernatorial run. His problem is that the primary is nearly impossible for him to win with so many heavyweights in the running.

I really hope Gerlach does this. He'd definitely get my support before Meakem and Luksik. This is the guy to rally behind with Toomey and Santorum staying out.

[Keystone Phil]

One thing I find odd though, Gerlach isn't much more to the right than Specter which brings me to my next question- Would you support Gerlach over Santorum/Toomey in a primary? 

Gerlach is certainly to the right of Specter and of course I'd support Santorum or Toomey (political heroes of mine) over Gerlach but I wouldn't be pissed off with who won anyway.

If Gerlach runs, PA 6 does become a toss up but I like our chances in a midterm. Plus, look at the crop of candidates the Dems are talking about - http://www.rollcall.com/issues/54_88/politics/32323-1.html  That's not a strong list (with the exception of Dinniman and he'll still be hesitant to run).

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach would be a stronger candidate statewide than Toomey or Santorum.   The question is how likely is he to Primary Specter?   Gerlach is to the right of Specter, but he isn't well to the right of Specter such as Toomey or Santorum.  I would see Gerlach as more of a possibility to run if Specter decided to retire, not to Priamry him.

Gerlach is in the middle of a Gubernatorial campaign that he just can't win. He's in a position to make some deals and have a great shot at becoming a U.S. Senator. That's not something you just turn down.

I heard from someone who used to help run Gerlach's House campaigns that we're probably running Meakem. Now I could be reading too far into this but the way he worded it was odd. He didn't mention Gerlach in his response and he gave me a one sentence response to a fairly detailed message. Again, this is coming from someone who was on the Gerlach campaigns.

[Keystone Phil]

http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/02/10/meakem-for-senate.aspx

I posted this yesterday. 

[Keystone Phil]

Specter starting to take heat from PA GOP leaders - http://grassrootspa.com/?p=21876#more-21876

[Keystone Phil]

I posted this in the other Specter thread but wanted my thoughts on Joe Torsella here as well...



Torsella is a very interesting candidate. As was mentioned, he barely lost to Schwartz in 2004 but that was a race he was supposed to win. He's been somewhat of a force on the local scene but he doesn't have much of a base. If it's Schwartz vs. Torsella vs. Shapiro, Torsella will likely be the Philly machine candidate (but, as I have learned in this city, the insane number of factions and petty feuds that start up within the blink of an eye may change that). He also appeals to Dems in my area (the more populist types though he really isn't a populist) which would get him strong support in NE Philly, South Philly (the Italian thing would be huge down there, too. I'd love to see the results afterwards) and lower Bucks.

If it's just those three, Torsella also runs well out west, in NE PA and in the center of the state. His problem is that that's not where these primaries are won. He'd need insane numbers out of NE Philly and South Philly to compete with Schwartz (who will also have pull in NE Philly especially the Jewish areas and the more progressive areas of the city) and Shapiro (who will basically split Montco and others of the SE with Schwartz).

What Torsella would need to hope for is Schwartz and Shapiro splitting the vote to a great enough extent. There's a chance that they split the same base and still beat Torsella's numbers elsewhere. We'll have to see though. Torsella also really needs to hope that Wagner stays out. It also needs to be mentioned that Torsella is from Flourtown in Montco - an affluent community not far from the city. He, too, will get support from areas that would traditionally go for a Schwartz or Shapiro type candidate.

----

It's also worth mentioning that I really think the forum progressives should look into Shapiro. I know a bit about him for other reasons but simple research would let anyone in on the fact that this guy is basically another Rahm Emanuel and the Democratic Aaron Schock. He's very liberal and would be a real headache for Republicans (one reason why I compared him to Rahm) but he's a stand up guy and a hard worker. I can't say that I'd ever vote for him but I also can't say that I'll ever question his work ethic and campaign skills.

His district is mostly Abington Township in Montco (an area that I have mentioned before) which has been a RINOish area of Montco. He won in 2004, beating former PA 13 Republican Congressman Jon Fox by double digits. He was easily re-elected in 2006 (with 75% of the vote) in a district that still has a GOP registration plurality. In 2008, he ran for both the Democratic and Republican nominations and received both without contest. Like I said, this is a RINOish area (still economically conservative though) but to win the nomination without contest is very impressive.

[Keystone Phil]

Hahaha...the possible 2010 preview - Schwartz vs. Shapiro on FOX News debating Hillary and Obama - http://www.joshshapiro.org/media/Shapiro_FOX_03-30-08_320x240.html

I'd love to see these two be the only Dem candidates for the seat in 2010. That would be a real dog fight.

[Keystone Phil]

The PA GOP Chairman (a Specter ally) is openly entertaining the idea that the State Committee might not even back Specter, reminding us that it's up to the committee members - http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/02/steele-rnc-open-to-limiting-support-to-specter.html


This is the way it's been but for Gleason to openly comment like this means that Specter has probably hit his dead end. Good riddance. Without State Committee, Specter has a 1% chance at winning. Yes, 1%. That's his only benefit in a 2010 primary.

[Keystone Phil]

81% of PA GOP primary voters oppose Card Check - http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/EFCA_poll_2_2009.pdf

Starting to really feel the pressure, Arlen?

[Keystone Phil]

The one candidate we all thought was a sure thing is very hesitant - http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20090226_John_Baer__A_Senate_run_for_Allyson_Schwartz__Don_t_think_so.html


Irey approached to take on Specter - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/papoliticsblog/show_comments.php?entry_id=4026

Irey would be amazing. She ran a good race against Murtha in 2006 (so she has serious fundraising connections), is from the "right" area of the state and she attends the woman factor into a GOP primary. I'd love for her to run. She'd be top tier, by the way.

[Keystone Phil]

She ran a good race against Murtha in 2006 (so she has serious fundraising connections),

I'm curious how you judge the success of her race in 2006. I didn't see anything firsthand--only the Free Republican reaction and promotion. I don't fault her too much for getting crushed by Murtha, obviously he was impossible to beat that year.

I think she hit 40%. That's good for us there (against Murtha) especially in 2006.

She built herself a nice network. It would be close to perfect for a statewide race.

[Keystone Phil]

     So is Specter going down?

If Irey runs? Yeah, pretty much.

[Keystone Phil]

     So is Specter going down?

If Irey runs? Yeah, pretty much.

You seem eerily confident of Specter being successfully primaried for all of your posts about uncertainty in the 2012 board

Apples and oranges, my friend, and you know it.

Sure, there is a chance that Specter doesn't get a top tier opponent and people see him as our only chance at keeping the seat. However, things clearly aren't in his favor (party registration numbers, the two people that saved him not being around anymore, extreme anger from the base on top of the reasons that they already can't stand him), this race isn't prone to drastic swings like a Presidential race, etc.

[Keystone Phil]

Give him a big kiss next time, Arlen.