Kentucky

[Keystone Phil]

He needs to retire or be beaten in a primary. That being said, I still think the GOP is favored to hold this seat with Bunning. Any other serious Republican would definitely be favored against Mongiardo.

[Keystone Phil]

Bunning barely held the seat in a Republican state in a Republican year against a nobody state legislator with a name that is not an asset in Kentucky, and with people only finding out about his mental problems a few weeks before Election Day.

A few weeks before the campaign and it totally shaped the campaign. Sure he should have won by more but he also did everything he possibly could to try and throw it away. Plus, Bunning was never all that popular to begin with so the "Republican state in a Republican year" argument only goes so far.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh...haha...ok.

[Keystone Phil]

The guy is unelectable and everyone in the state knows it.

Possibly the worst generalization I've seen here in awhile.

Listen, I agree that he's a huge liability but saying that it will be impossible for him to win again is wrong.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hopefully, I won't have to see what he plans on doing differently. I want him beaten in a primary.  

But I think the campaign team and the NRSC will have a very tight leash on the guy this time around.

Plus, Bunning was never all that popular to begin with...

I am struggling to see how this serves as an argument for his reelection in any way.

I wasn't saying it was an argument for his re-election. It almost totally neutralized all of the advantages you listed so that it would seem like Bunning was actually super safe. That is all.

Bunning still only has $175k in his campaign account, I mean, Eliot Spitzer has more money than that in his campaign account.  Most House members do as well

Which means he's probably gone before ever reaching the General. 

[Keystone Phil]

Listen, I agree that he's a huge liability but saying that it will be impossible for him to win again is wrong.

Ok, so it sounds as if the difference between you and me lies between "likely to lose in the primary or general" vs. "impossible to win"? I'm fine letting that be.

Well, I'm not saying he's likely to lose in either. He's going to have a very tough time in both.

[Keystone Phil]

unless he runs against another gay Arab.

Mongiardo, Rob. Mongiardo.

Wait, I know what you're getting at. 

[Keystone Phil]

Story link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Primary please?

Good

I hate the "Anybody but _______" movements but that's basically how I'm feeling concerning the Republican primary in Kentucky.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know, Williams would be running to Bunning's left as a compromiser/tax raiser, that's hard to do in a GOP primary in Kentucky.

Is he a chronic tax raiser? I'm not denying that raising taxes is a major obstacle in our primaries but we're not all "NO TAX HIKES EVER. NO MATTER WHAT!" types.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.kyclubforgrowth.org/2009/02/williams_jumping_in_backwards.html

Luckily, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement of Bunning either. Here's hoping we can find someone stronger than Williams though.

[Keystone Phil]

It sounds pretty strong praise of Bunning:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That doesn't sound strong at all. A strong endorsement actually mentions the guy's name. It seems that they are open to backing someone besides Bunning but not Williams. I can't blame them for wanting someone stronger than Williams.

It's a shame Geoff Davis doesn't want it. He seems credible and looks like a stronger candidate...or maybe he just doesn't seem as weak as the others.

Looks like our only other statewide official down there besides McConnell, Bunning and Grayson is the State Agricultural Commissioner, Richie Farmer. I doubt he'd want to give up a job that has his name written all over it though. 

[Keystone Phil]

If anyone here thinks Geoff Davis is a credible candidate, then well, um...

Bandit callin Davis a weak candidate is confirmation that I am right about the guy.

[Keystone Phil]

That's great.

[Keystone Phil]

Grayson said he would not challenge Bunning in a primary but the source made clear on Friday that Grayson is in the race no matter what Bunning does in the future.

Um...what?

[Keystone Phil]

would Bunning have any chance in a prospective primary?

Kentucky Republicans re-nominated Ernie Fletcher with a majority (a bare majority, but a majority nonetheless) despite the polls showing him going down in flames in the general, so I wouldn't rule anything out.

But Northup wasn't exactly a stellar candidate.

I don't think Bunning is dead on arrival in the primary but I think this is different from the Fletcher primary.

[Keystone Phil]

because she held for many years a blue seat.

Believe it or not, most voters (even primary voters) don't really look at that that much. It's something we and political strategists obsess over. The immediate thought at the time was that she was a defeated Congresswoman backed by a Senator that wasn't the darling of the state's conservative base (she was also backed by Bunning but she was seen as Mitch's girl).

[Keystone Phil]

rumor is Bunning is announcing his retirement this weekend

crap

What a wonderful week!