Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

PN?

Obama will do well in the Philly suburbs but not as well as one would think. He's going to struggle in Bucks because of the strength of the local GOP and his total disconnect with Lower Bucks. He'll win Montco, Delaware and Chester by a few points respectively.

Dauphin will still go McCain even though Obama will benefit from better results in and around Harrisburg.

Pittsburgh is going to be a lot like Philly - strong because of black turnout but the white, working class voters are going to be a problem. Same thing around Erie.

[Keystone Phil]

What about the fact that the Democratic edge in registrations in Pennsylvania over Republicans is up by more than 500,000 from 2006 to 2008? Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 600,000 the day that Santorum lost by almost 20 points, and now it's up by 1.1 million.

We know that registration rough numbers often are deceiving, but does anyone want to argue that this number is meaningless because more than a half-million of those people are Hillary voters who are now going to vote for McCain--on top of all the Hillary-McCain voters who were registered Dems prior to 2006. (I'm sure there's some bad assumptions there, but you take the point. This number is a bad sign for Republicans, the only debate is how much of a bad sign it is.)

McCain either needs to cut pretty deeply with down market whites, or carriage trade seculars (RINO's now Dems since the Democrat primary has become meaningful now in Montco and envirions, or RINO's, or cafeteria RINO's), or a combo of the two, or it is curtains in PA. I keep saying that, but I can't get anyone yet, to say, you know, that is very perspicacious of you! 

I want to see some polling.  The Palin choice could play very well in PA, especially with "down market whites."  Conversely, it might not help enough.

Biden definitely outdoes Palin in PA though moreso in the East. 

I do this economics and the War will outdo the black-white issue in the end, but not entirely.

You really overstate Biden's appeal.

[Keystone Phil]

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Again, people make the mistake of thinking that Philly alone = PA win. You have to take Philly by a massive margin AND Western PA by a decent amount.

I predict we're looking at a record turnout and record margin of victory in Philadelphia. That will be enough when you consider that native son Biden will help the ticket fare at least as well in western PA as Kerry/Edwards four years ago.

Note to everyone who still uses this argument - Obama will seriously struggle in areas of the city. He will not make up for his losses by boosting black turnout. As noted, black turnout was basically at its peak in 2004 anyway and registrations probably haven't increased by enough to make up for it either.

[Keystone Phil]

Again, I don't think Obama's struggles will be as bad as you think.  Yes, he is part black and it kinda hurts.  Not entirely.  I think you're overestimating the racial strife in the Northeast which is nowhere near what it was in the 1980s or 1990s for that matter.

It's not as bad as then but it's silly to think that it isn't still a serious problem here. The local Dems know it. Don't believe "McCain/GOP hack" Phil? Fine. Do a little reading up on local candidates and their plans for the fall campaign. They wouldn't do some of the things that they're doing just for the hell of it.

[Keystone Phil]

And other people are really overstating Palin's appeal. How about we just admit that running mates don't have that much effect leave it at that?

While I believe that Palin is a bit of a different case, I basically agree that they don't have that much of an impact. I've said that plenty of times before.

As much as I hate to give this overplayed state its due, I'll give my two cents. Obama is up here in every poll. Nuff said.

Right. Just like how Obama had been beating or was tied with McCain in every national poll until this weekend. Election over, right?

[Keystone Phil]

The problem is there is no logic behind that normally Democratic voters are expressing hatred for Obama in real life yet are lying in posters and saying they'll vote for him. So if the latter is happening, Obama is clearly making it up somewhere else.

People don't lie to pollsters but tell their close friends and family how they really feel? Uh...

[Keystone Phil]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

[Keystone Phil]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

Judged by a bot?

Have all these polls been conducted by bots?

By the way, notice how Obama might lead McCain by a few but there are still tons of undecided voters here.

[Keystone Phil]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

[Keystone Phil]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

[Keystone Phil]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

Sane laws on alcohol sales.

Eh, I don't care for our laws on alcohol sales either and that's coming from a non-drinker. That being said, I don't really care enough to "Thank God" that other states have better laws on the subject.

[Keystone Phil]

PA has gone for the Dems every election for 20 years and the Dems just gained 4 congressional seats in the state. I really don't see PA swinging GOP.

That's an excellent way to analyze a Presidential race. Way to consider all other relevant factors.

[Keystone Phil]

PA has gone for the Dems every election for 20 years and the Dems just gained 4 congressional seats in the state. I really don't see PA swinging GOP.

That's an excellent way to analyze a Presidential race. Way to consider all other relevant factors.

Your analysis is based on extrapolating from conditions in one small part of the state and handwaving about numbers. I think looking at four congressional districts, a senate race, 20 years of history, and registration trends is superior to talking to older white Democrats in your neighborhood when we know McCain is doing disproportionately well among old people anyway.

"One small part of the state" which is a third of Obama's most supportive major city in the state.

I love how you can discredit that McCain is doing "disproportionately well" among older people, saying it is almost meaningless...in the state with the second highest senior population in the country.

Good job!

[Keystone Phil]

I love how you can discredit that McCain is doing "disproportionately well" among older people, saying it is almost meaningless...in the state with the second highest senior population in the country.

There's no way I can respond to this without insulting your intelligence, so I'll ask you to read it again, taking into account the words "we know" and asking yourself if that means I'm "discrediting" anything.

You're brushing off that white seniors are important enough to swing the state. You're saying, "Well, we know they already favor McCain so who cares?" I bet many of them are officially listed as "undecided" in these polls though.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm quoting the polls as showing that. You're brushing off the polls because of anecdotal evidence that is likely already calculated in.

Based on what, other than that's what you'd like to believe? Seriously?

Well then you tell me - who makes up that insane number of undecided voters? If Obama was leading in PA with over 50% of the vote, I'd concede the point. However, the guy is usually stuck around 45%.

[Keystone Phil]

FWIW, African-Americans regularly poll much higher undecided numbers than the general population.

You really think that's the case this year?

[Keystone Phil]

Okay, since everyone on the board seems to disagree about Pennsylvania I think it would be cool to get a fairly detailed analysis about the demographic outlook of the state and politics. How much will the suburbs trend towards Obama this time around, will they trend towards him at all? How will Dauphin County vote this time around? How is Obama looking in Pittsburgh and around Erie?

lol.  you mean cuz Phil talks a lot.  Saying everyone disagrees about PA is like saying everyone disagrees about NC.

That's really mature.

You're right. Almost everyone here is in agreement on basically everything. Like how Palin was a terrible choice and how she'd hurt McCain.