FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Obama in command

[Keystone Phil]

Are we done considering Quinnipiac a top pollster? These numbers are just ridiculous even if Obama is leading.

[Keystone Phil]

Are we done considering Quinnipiac a top pollster? These numbers are just ridiculous even if Obama is leading.

Why are they ridiculous? Florida was exactly even in 2000, and less than R+3 in 2004. If Obama's leading by 6 nationwide post-nomination-bump, unless Florida is trending significantly more Republican than the rest of the country this year, this is perfectly reasonable.

And up twelve in PA and leading by six in OH? The numbers seem a bit inflated.

[Keystone Phil]

And up twelve in PA and leading by six in OH? The numbers seem a bit inflated.

The reason people felt PA and OH were close was because they felt that Clinton voters wouldn't support Obama. These polls numbers are consistent with Democrats coming back to support Obama and Independents leaning that way, which was always a possibility given the terrible national environment for McCain and Republicans in general and the fact that if race weren't in the equation, people would have shunted those states into the lean or likely Democratic column at the start of the election.

I don't know if these numbers are realistic for Election Day, but they ring true to me for an Obama bump that may be temporary with Democratic party unity.

You're really kidding yourself if you think these numbers are going to stick. Even with Democratic unity, Obama isn't up twelve here.

[Keystone Phil]

If it isn't going to stick, then isn't it reasonable to say Obama is up 12 now and would win in the end by 5-6 points?

Ha. Obama takes PA by six. Ok, next...

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Show me another poll that has him with a double digit lead and I'll concede the point.

[Keystone Phil]

Wait... you think Obama taking Pennsylvania by six points is ridiculous? What? The state was 5 points more Democratic than the national average in 2004. As long as Obama wins the popular vote, he'll take Pennsylvania by 6. And if he wins by 4 or 5 points, like the polls indicate, he will push double digits in the state.

Um....Pennsylvania is a BATTLEGROUND state. Everyone has to know this...

Because it obviously isn't!

Wait... you think Obama taking Pennsylvania by six points is ridiculous? What? The state was 5 points more Democratic than the national average in 2004. As long as Obama wins the popular vote, he'll take Pennsylvania by 6. And if he wins by 4 or 5 points, like the polls indicate, he will push double digits in the state.

Hahaha...ok!

[Keystone Phil]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

[Keystone Phil]

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

If the Democrats win by 7 points, then yes, there's a good chance of that occurring, as 3+7=10. Pennsylvania will trend one way or another, yes, but not by 10 points or something.

Barack Obama is not going to beat John McCain by seven points nationally. End.

And maybe you're still not understanding, Mr. "Kansas goes Obama." The point is that it's not always as easy as "Well, state X is automatically +3 for the Dems."

What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?

I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"

You're going to get so owned in November..

Oh, why? Because Obama is going to sweep the nation? Sweeping the Dakotas! Sweeping the plain states!

I wish I was around in 1988 so Dukakis supporters could have told me "You're going to get so owned in November..." when their guy was up seventeen points nationally.

[Keystone Phil]

You're the one that brought up the +7 figure, so...

It's not always as easy as saying that, right, but Pennsylvania, despite some Republican delusions, is not swinging away from the Democrats by such a great margin that it would be close if Obama won nationally by 5 points.

The only delusion is that Obama is going to win by five to seven points.

 

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Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee. Also, take into consideration the Bradley Effect in polls such as these.

 

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But this won't be an easy win for him so get over it, folks. Please. Lief, you're not taking Kansas. You're not taking North Dakota. You're not taking Georgia. You're not taking Alaska. It really is time to wake up.

[Keystone Phil]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

[Keystone Phil]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

[Keystone Phil]

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

What is more worthless than anecdotal evidence? Not much.

Haha...ok! It's a bit more than your average "anecdotal evidence" when I work my polling place every Election day and I'm active in the local political scene but whatever. Keep living in this fantasy that they'll all come back into the Democratic fold just because they're Democrats and they're not happy with Bush. Your mistakes make my success so I'm not complaining!

[Keystone Phil]

At risk of defending BRTD, why aren't those folks showing up in the polls?  They're lying en masse?

(That's actually a sincere question - I don't understand the psychology of that kind of Democrat at all )

Bradley Effect?

Are these the voters you're referring to that Obama has more problems than McCain has with the GOP base?

Yes, those are the types. I know plenty of very partisan Democrats in my precinct that have sworn not to vote for Obama. This precinct went for Kerry by at least ten points. Obama cannot afford to lose these areas.

What is more worthless than anecdotal evidence? Not much.

Haha...ok! It's a bit more than your average "anecdotal evidence" when I work my polling place every Election day and I'm active in the local political scene but whatever. Keep living in this fantasy that they'll all come back into the Democratic fold just because they're Democrats and they're not happy with Bush. Your mistakes make my success so I'm not complaining!

What should I trust more: anecdotal evidence or polls?

Anecdotal evidence or polls four and a half months before the election?

Also, take into consideration the Bradley Effect in polls such as these.

I think the Bradley effect has already been proven to be out of play thus far so I don't see any reason why it should suddenly rear its head during the general election. 

Independents, Republicans and Democrats that didn't vote in the primary?

[Keystone Phil]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

What's your basis for saying that?

Because we haven't been hearing about any bitter divisions and didn't have that prolonged, nasty struggle. I know most of the wounds will heal in the Democratic party but the disconnect between Obama and that working class Democratic base (some of it, yes, based on race and that's something Obama can't fix) is going to hurt in states that really matter.

"Catholic blue collar ethnic voters?" What other types of voters are there in PA? What's the breakdown look like? I just gave a hint by citing Philadelphia. There's more to an electorate than what's in your city, town, environment, social circle, or whatever and there's more to political beliefs than the ones that 1 individual has.

I live in Philadelphia. These are the types that I'm talking about. There is much more to the big numbers that come out of Philly than just blacks and young, progressive voters.

[Keystone Phil]

Please explain how your anecdotal evidence now is so much better than your prediction of Santorum's miraculous 20 point comeback in the last week.

Because I never said that people were telling me that they would vote for him. I based it on Santorum's history of coming back and Casey's history of collapsing in big races.

I know you like being such a bitter asshole about all of this but it's not going to change Obama's problems here. But hey, Obama's going to sweep PA. No contest. He's going to win nationwide by eight points. It's all over. You guys don't have to do any work. We'll take care of it.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey won that race by almost 18%. Any prediction that Santorum could have possibly won that race would be completely partisan in nature. I'm not so sure I'd be flaunting that logic to make my point.

Then you clearly don't know about Santorum's history of winning races he shouldn't have won but that's a different conversation and doesn't even compare to what we're discussing here.

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Uh...sure, he'll do better than Gore and Kerry...if you don't count the third of the city (Northeast Philadelphia) with your typical white, working class, ethnic Catholics. These are voters that Gore and Kerry won with little problem. We can't say the same for Obama. I've said this several times now and you've chosen to ignore it, almost as if you're saying that this demographic doesn't exist in the city.