KY: Switch from Mitch

[Keystone Phil]

Are we finished considering Rasmussen a credible polling firm?

[Keystone Phil]

Are we finished considering Rasmussen a credible polling firm?

After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
--Bertolt Brecht

Maybe you can
Tell me what you mean
When you post
A Poem of some sorts
In response
To
My comment. Many
Thanks.

-- Phil

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe you can
Tell me what you mean
When you post
A Poem of some sorts
In response
To
My comment. Many
Thanks.

-- Phil

It was an allusion in response to the question of who is at fault for a response like this, the people asking the question or the people who refuse to give the answer that is expected.

Certainly some polls misfire--but given the results for Dole and Cornyn in other polls, it seems as if voters nearly everywhere outside of Wyoming and Utah are willing to consider ditching their established senators for generic alternatives.

So how did McConnell lose the twelve point lead he had two weeks ago?

[Keystone Phil]

So how did McConnell lose the twelve point lead he had two weeks ago?

The primary happened, Lunsford became the nominee.

So wait...

We have a poll from two weeks ago showing McConnell's favorability at 48% and winning re-election with 48% of the vote. Now we have a poll showing his approval is above 50% (at 52%) yet he somehow loses support and only 44% will vote for re-elect McConnell. Interesting. We won't point out that this poll is probably trash because saying this is a "wave election for the Dems" is just a lot more fun.

[Keystone Phil]

Why weren't you there to call the Rasmussen poll showing Clinton winning Kentucky be several points trash, too?

Probably because I don't feel the need to comment about polling a candidate who won't make it to the General election.

[Keystone Phil]

We have a poll from two weeks ago showing McConnell's favorability at 48% and winning re-election with 48% of the vote. Now we have a poll showing his approval is above 50% (at 52%) yet he somehow loses support and only 44% will vote for re-elect McConnell. Interesting. We won't point out that this poll is probably trash because saying this is a "wave election for the Dems" is just a lot more fun.

So your claim is that it is impossible, or unacceptable, for a senator to poll below his favorability? Collins has favorability in the 60s or higher. Does anyone seriously believe she's going to win with 67% in November?

No, I'm saying it's highly unlikely that a Senator would go from being below 50% approval two weeks ago yet winning his race by twelve points to suddenly being above 50% approval yet trailing in his race by five points.

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Yeah, I got that. I'm saying that calling it a wave election and seeing McConnell as a victim of it based on this one poll is premature.

[Keystone Phil]

Secondly, I'd ask, on what basis can you decide the first poll is the real one and the second one is wrong? They are two data points, and they aren't even from the same environment in time. If we had three other polls taken post primary showing Mitch leading by big sums, that would make this a true outlier, but it isn't.

I think you're kind of making my point. I'm saying that we shouldn't strongly believe either of them since they show such drastic swings within such a short period of time (and nothing significant has happened).

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As of...May. Check back in September.

Are we finished considering Rasmussen a credible polling firm?

Why are you bashing polling companies?  They are mere providers of information.

When they start to get goofy with results, "providing information" isn't good.