Swann V. Altmire + PA U.S House predictions

[Keystone Phil]

Swann loses. It really doesn't matter anyway since Hart will run and win the primary. Sorry, Lynn. I supported you but politics just isn't your thing.

PA 6 - Gerlach hangs on again.

PA 7 - The GOP's only shot at a pickup here is with U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan and it will still be an uphill fight. Otherwise, Sestak has it for as long as he wants (even though he's been a bit controversial lately).

PA 8 - This race is funny. Just when I started to think that Fitz might be rethinking a run, a prominent Dem activist who I am friendly with expressed her certainty that Fitz will take the seat back because all the GOP needs is a slightly better GOTV effort in 2008. If the election was held now, Murphy wins fairly easily. He gets props for voting against the budget but let's wait to see if he gets the same positive press, etc. in 2008. If Fitz doesn't run, though, don't expect the national GOP to pay much attention here.

PA 10 - Carney is going. I was very worried that Carney would become a Holden but he is showing that he has no intention of doing so. This seat is definetley leaning GOP.

PA 15 - Dent himself is very personally popular up there but with the right candidate, he can have a very tough time and might be beat. If popular State Senator Lisa Boscola runs, this seat will be a major target for the Dems. I am not a Dent fan at all but if Boscola (who is frequently targeted by the state GOP to switch parties) is the nominee, I am all for Dent. Why would I be so strongly against someone seen as a DINO? Well, I won't get into it because it is pretty damn digusting. If she's their nominee, everyone will know about it though. Let's just say that someone people (eh...like BRTD) would love her for this...

PA 18 - Murphy can be a real problem. The investigation is obviously going to weigh him down in 2008. The GOP would be smart to tell him that this is his last term. We can't afford to let him slide and lose like Sherwood when we could have kept the seat with the right candidate. The district isn't solidly Republican but the GOP has the advantage here.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 8 - This race is funny. Just when I started to think that Fitz might be rethinking a run, a prominent Dem activist who I am friendly with expressed her certainty that Fitz will take the seat back because all the GOP needs is a slightly better GOTV effort in 2008. If the election was held now, Murphy wins fairly easily. He gets props for voting against the budget but let's wait to see if he gets the same positive press, etc. in 2008. If Fitz doesn't run, though, don't expect the national GOP to pay much attention here.

I concur. I wonder if Fitz doesn't run (its possible, he might have burned himself out from 05-07), i wonder if the GOP pleads with Greenwood, who is comfortable in the private sector. They'd have to, I don't see anyone who can give Pat a run for his money willing to challenge him.

There is no way at all that Greenwood leaves his amazing private sector job. After Fitz, State Representative Gene DiGirolamo is our strongest candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

In case anyone be interested, PA-4 is a very demographically polarised district.

I love the 4th. It seems like it has everything and is probably the most accurate representation of PA as a whole.

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

[Keystone Phil]

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

As far as party registration goes it's something like 51% Democrat, 39% Republican, 10% Indy. Slightly more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole, but not by much.

And if I may ask, how do you find this information?

[Keystone Phil]

Do you have an exact party breakdown there, Al?

As far as party registration goes it's something like 51% Democrat, 39% Republican, 10% Indy. Slightly more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole, but not by much.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=616

And if I may ask, how do you find this information?

Ah, a pretty obvious place to look! Thanks!

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=616

Does that site (or any other site) have voter registration for the other PA districts?

That site doesn't even have the information for every district. There has to be another source that Al has but he probably doesn't want to advertize them...

[Keystone Phil]

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

I agree at this point but things can change. Fitz did an excellent job pointing out his independence last time around. He wasn't "always there when Bush needed him."

[Keystone Phil]

We'll see. I'm not 100% confident as you are that this will occur, but it seems to be the probable outcome. Murphy hasn't done anything that would cause his defeat. But much can change in a year and a half.

We're not even sure it Murphy's opponent is fitz yet.

We won't beat him without Fitz. Fitz is probably still running though I have my doubts now. As of now, he's in and he'd easily win the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

He's not coming back, moose, and personally, I wouldn't want him.

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No, they can keep him.

[Keystone Phil]

The only surefire winner we could throw against Murphy probably wouldn't leave his current job at this point...who knows though, maybe he's built his nestegg already.

He's not coming back, moose, and personally, I wouldn't want him.

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No, they can keep him.

Of course you wouldnt want him. But I would...as would plenty of Bucks County-ers

Well, it's time to accept that he's not coming back. If Fitz doesn't run, maybe Tomlinson will jump in. He was just re-elected to the State Senate so he wouldn't have to worry about losing his seat if he lost the Congressional bid.

[Keystone Phil]

Tomlinson could chew into the slightly democratic areas of lower bucks (Areas like Bristol were a loss in the first place).

Plus Tomlinson's district starts to stretch north into central bucks...where Fitz underperformed in 2006.

So he'd be perfect if Fitz didn't run but I think he'd need a lot of convincing in order to get in.

[Keystone Phil]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

[Keystone Phil]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

Can I see the article?  That amount does not seem anywhere near correct.  Even Jeb Bradley, who wants to win back NH-01, has only raised $7,000 so far.

My mistake! I misread the article. It said that at this point last year that's how much Fitz had on hand (which is double what Murphy has now). Tell me if you'd still like to see the article.

[Keystone Phil]

Id still enjoy looking at it.

http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/111-04172007-1331706.html

[Keystone Phil]

Hart told Roll Call that Swann possibly being in the race won't stop her from running. Many of us have known that Hart would be back but I think this is proof that she's in to anyone foolish enough to dispute a comeback.

[Keystone Phil]

She is still thinking about.  It is assumed that she is looking at the national landscape, which does not look at all good for Republicans.

Mr. Phips, it is pretty clear that she is running. She wouldn't make these statements otherwise. Plus, I have pretty good sources which, I can assure you, are much better than your's. I can only say so much though and hopefully you will respect - not mock - me for that.