The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[Keystone Phil]

The fact remains that the only time Gerlach votes for the environment is when it doesn't matter. He voted against Stem Cell Research last year and he supports more oil drilling.

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I know the district was created for him but he's just not that personally popular. He is a "virtuous survivor" in the fact that you guys always claim that he is finished when he ends up winning. His victories frustrate you to no end and we love it!

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Let 49% still vote against him for the rest of his career. Guess what?

51% still vote for him and he wins!

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Gerlach has an established base. Dinniman has won one Special election. And how the hell is Wofford more experienced?

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.....

Oh...was that the end? Ok, what did you say? Sorry, straw man arguments put me to sleep.

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Awwwwwww...boo hoo. I'm so glad that you have anti Gerlach relatives. That means this race is definitely flipping!

You have so much learning to do in life.

[Keystone Phil]

Re: PA-3, I believe Supersoulty said English isn't running again, so in that case the seat certainly is winnable and no doubt would be a target.

English most certainly is running again. The man ran for NRCC chairman just a few months ago. I doubt he would do a complete turnaround just because he lost his bid to be chairman.

And where the hell did Super say this? I know he is close to English but I don't remember him ever making a comment about discussing this with him.

[Keystone Phil]

6) It doesn't matter if the Senator cares, voters will.  Even if my friend is not the candidate, his being highly placed on anyone's staff is now a potnetial liability.  Lucky, Phil English does not care, but he is also retiring after this term.

It still doesn't make sense though. At that time, English was running for NRCC chairman. I could see if Super posted this after he lost that bid but this was just two days after the election. English is running for re-election.

[Keystone Phil]

If Democrats  take PA-03, PA-06 and PA-15, they'll have a 14-5 majority in the House delegation. Imagine if you're GOP's pathetic gerrymandering plan causing Team Red to lose 7 House seats!

You won't take PA 3 or PA 6. Mark my words. As for the 15th, you'll have a tough fit but that's only if your top candidate even agrees to running.

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Good for them.

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Their ads of him and Bush, big oil, etc. wasn't enough in 2006. This meaningly resolution will have no impact in 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

6) It doesn't matter if the Senator cares, voters will.  Even if my friend is not the candidate, his being highly placed on anyone's staff is now a potnetial liability.  Lucky, Phil English does not care, but he is also retiring after this term.

Another seat for the Democrats.

Too bad English isn't retiring.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.pottsmerc.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16985181&BRD=1674&PAG=461&dept_id=164632&rfi=6

Lois Murphy's campaign was a disaster and she still got 49% of the vote.  Considering that Democratic turnout was low because of the Rendell and Casey landslides, Gerlach should have won by a bigger margin. He's still the vulnerable member in congress. This time he won't have a GOP majority willing to do anything to save him.

So how was it a disaster? She had the money, the people, the good year, the big names coming in for her. How was turnout low because of the landslides? Turnout in PA was 50% in 2006. 50%! Again, get your facts straight before you spew stupidity!

To say that no one will want to save him is just as ridiculous as your previous posts. You have proven that you know nothing. Let's count some your ridiculous comments...

1) Congresswoman McIlvaine Smith   -  That one actually had me laughing.
2) Turnout was "low."   -  Brush up on the facts, pal.
3) Gerlach is only Pro Environment when "it doesn't matter."

And the list goes on...

You are a real joke. How old are you again and where are you from?

[Keystone Phil]

PA-03 was created to elect English. If he leaves, A Zack Space type Democrat will take the seat.

Too bad he's not leaving.

 PA-15 is all about recruiting. We get a  decent candidate, we win. Dent is a Republican, which means he probably can't win in a swing district.[/quote]

All about recruiting the right candidate. You need Lisa Boscola. Dent is very personally popular up there.

Hahahaha! This logic is amazing! "Dent is a Republican which means he probably can't win in a swing district." You do know that Toomey won this district quite easily three times, right? You do realize that Dent is a moderate to liberal Republican, right?

Kid, you don't know a thing!



 

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This is great. PA 18 is clearly more of a target because of his scandal (the GOP might even try to replace him) but you call him safe in the exact same post.  

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Oh wow. Nap time is over. Wake up from your dream.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.pottsmerc.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16985181&BRD=1674&PAG=461&dept_id=164632&rfi=6

Lois Murphy's campaign was a disaster and she still got 49% of the vote.  Considering that Democratic turnout was low because of the Rendell and Casey landslides, Gerlach should have won by a bigger margin. He's still the vulnerable member in congress. This time he won't have a GOP majority willing to do anything to save him.

So how was it a disaster? She had the money, the people, the good year, the big names coming in for her. How was turnout low because of the landslides? Turnout in PA was 50% in 2006. 50%! Again, get your facts straight before you spew stupidity!

That's high? Turnout is usually well over 60% in Minnesota.

Wonderful for Minnesota! In PA and most other states, you are lucky to get to 50% in a Presidential election year.

[Keystone Phil]

Only 53% of voters cast their ballots for Charlie Dent.

Do you really think every year will be like 2006? Wake up.

[Keystone Phil]

If 51% means Gerlach is popular, then Dent's 53% must mean he's a god.

Check out all of my posts. I never said Gerlach was popular.

[Keystone Phil]

I do. I'm already awake. The War in Iraq is still on and Bush is still at sub 35%.

The GOP needs to wake up from its depression.

You're awake? Ok. Check the calendar. When is Election day?

Re: Dent, we should run a pro-life candidate against him to give us the edge on that issue and whip him on economic issues. I just looked up his rating and National Journal rates him as one of the most economically conservative members of Congress.

Good point.  We need a Brad Ellsworth type. Maybe we should clone Ellsworth and run him in PA-15 and PA-03.

And you still wouldn't win PA 3. Boscola is the type of Dem you need in the 15th but here's a warning to you guys - she's a DINO. She is constantly rumored as a potential switch in the State Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

If 51% means Gerlach is popular, then Dent's 53% must mean he's a god.

Check out all of my posts. I never said Gerlach was popular.

If he's unpopular, then he'll have trouble in '08. He's on the precipice of defeat in 2008. This time he won't have Bush, or Murphy to bail him out.

Um what? If he was never really popular (as I am arguing) then he'll have trouble in his elections. He had trouble in 2002, 2004 and 2006 and still won. Let him have trouble in 2008. I guarentee that he'll win.

And what happens when he doesn't lose? He'll be on his way down in 2010, right? Then 2012?

And how the hell does Bush bail him out? They used Bush against him and everyone else in a bad way, genius.

[Keystone Phil]

I'll swap a DINO for a RINO. You're just worried about what happens when your party loses touch with suburban America. You lost your majority because folks like Melissa Hart lost. Imagine what happens when the Mark Krik's and Charlie Dent's go down. Where will the GOP go?
They'll have to go back to the Deep South.

Suburban America is going to re-elect Gerlach. Suburban America will send Hart back. Suburban America will bring Fitz back.

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And the DCCC is the biggest joke at Gerlach campaign HQs. He has beaten them everytime. Let them "target" him...again.

Bush bailed him out in 2002. Duh.  Gerlach will have to rely on Romney to help him. LMFAO

Bush didn't bail him out in 2004 and 2006. Duh.

By the way, Romney won't win the nomination.

You're so wrong on so many things.



Again, how old are you?

[Keystone Phil]

Are you insinuating that Bush will be more popular in 2008? If so, why?

I am saying that Bush and Iraq might not be as important in 2008. You are jumping to way too many conclusions about the next election.

[Keystone Phil]

Why do you think Iraq won't be an important issue?

No, I'm saying that you shouldn't assume that it will be such a big issue.

 

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I'm debating points. You are the one throwing out stupid attacks when you can't win.

 

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McCain and how is that relevant?

 

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Look who is talking. I explain plenty and then you go find some hack counter point to everything. Like the environment issue.

 

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First off, you like to shift the topic more than anyone else on this forum. This argument is about Gerlach and PA 6 but, for whatever reason, you think I am frustrated about 2008 and want me to explode about it. You couldn't be further from the truth.

My leader for 2008, since Santorum and Pawlenty are not running, is John McCain. I am happy with that.

Why would I miss Haster or DeLay especially when I never cared for the latter of the two? Again, you are trying to bait me with something and I am quite literally laughing it off.

I don't know if 2008 will be good or not. I am not going to set my opinion in stone over a year in advance.

Looking at McCain's record, I always saw him an a center-right conservative maverick, not a moderate, so continue to make things up.

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And, of course, I win again because you are throwing your straw man tactics around. What a cheap hack.

BTW am I the only one who thinks this ad is retarded?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NId_e1oOPy4

This was a good ad from Fitz.


Lois Murphy ran one of the worst campaigns of 2006 and she still got 49.4% of the vote.


Thank you to everyone who's talked about this race. This has been a fascinating discussion. If only the people of the 6th were as politically engaged as us...

Hahahaha! You are pathetic! This ad was clearly about Pat Murphy and you, yet again, resort to your PA 6 hack comments!

Seriously, kid, look at your post and what we are actually talking about.

 But since we are, yet again, on the topic, answer this one for me: How was her campaign one of the worst run in 2006? She had the money, the big time backers coming in almost every week...how was it poorly run?


As for that ad, it was very good. Fitz's only mistake was saying how he approved of the message in a still, black and white image. It was regarded as one of the best ads of the cycle in this area. And it wasn't "blatantly obvious" that it was edited. They cut off at the ending, though.

 The only problem for Fitz was that he should have known that you have to run more than one ad.

[Keystone Phil]

Hi. First post here. I figured I'd de-lurk and finally register as I live (and vote) in PA 6 (and also the 19th State Senate district). I think Dinniman would be the strongest candidate. He's not a flash in the pan, as he'd been a County Commissioner (guaranteed Dem spot) since the early 90s, and, would have a high level of name recognition here in Chesco and could  really cut into Gerlach's base here. He's been virtually the only elected Dem for that time. He's known for getting involved in worthy causes and has a good reputation in these parts, and got a fair bit of Republican support in the special election, soundly beating a strong candidate in Carol Aichele. (I wouldn't mind her taking over Dinniman's old seat, should he beat Gerlach.) I believe Dinniman would start as the favorite, and I'd certainly consider voting for him, and I've voted for Jim all three times that he has run for Congress. Should be very interesting to watch if Dinniman enters the race. Obviously, a lot would depend on the national mood in 2008.

Great first post. Welcome to the forum!

Dinniman is a strong candidate. He is recognizable and did run a good campaign to run that Special election. However, I think Gerlach has the edge. It'll be tough. Let's see if he even runs.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's my honest, non-hackish opinion. If Dinniman runs, Gerlach will be in the fight of his life and has a 50/50 shot of winning. If virtually any other Democrat runs, Gerlach will finally win by a comfortable ( 2%+ margin).

Why couldn't you have sad that all along? I can deal with that. Gerlach would have a slight edge over Dinniman.

PA-07. Curt  Weldon was a local institution, but an FBI scandal and a politically attractive opponent who raised $3.3 million dollars were a deadly combination for Weldon. The NRCC seems to be taking a pass on this race. It's possible this is Joe Sestak's seat for life.[/quote]

Sestak has it for as long as he wants.

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I am worried that Carney could be a Holden but it's not likely to happen. The GOP should get this seat. As you said, it is quite an interesting sign that PA 10 doesn't like Dems if Sherwood can get 47%.

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PA 15 is fine for the GOP. Toomey was fine for the district especially since the district is more socially conservative than economically conservative (with an all around conservative being a better fit than a social moderate and economic conservative).

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If it becomes a problem, watch for the GOP to primary him.

 

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Why can't you always be like that? Seriously. I loved reading that analysis.

[Keystone Phil]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

[Keystone Phil]

There is already a pretty large GOP field that is interested in this seat.  I keep hearing about this Ron Francis guy.

Politics1 mentions both Francis and Hart but it doesn't matter. If Hart wants it (and she clearly does), she has it. There won't be a serious primary on the GOP side in PA 4.

A blood primary greatly benefits Altmire.

That's basically a pro-life Democrat district. Altmire is a great fit.

Altmire is a good fit but Hart is going to prove that she is more personally popular.

[Keystone Phil]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

It pretty much is. 

For someone who has traveled through the district to see family many times, I see development in this old union area that doesn't match what it once was. The young professionals are moving in in droves. This isn't Joe Union territory anymore.

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all.

The district isn't what it once was.

Then why'd it vote for Kerry (even though by the narrowest of margins)? I doubt it was because of social issues turning them off to Bush.

You'll never accept the argument but Pennsylvanians, for the most part, stick with their registration in Presidential elections.

[Keystone Phil]

And one of the things I was thinking with Hart was this: She's been known to have statewide ambitions, and was mentioned as a candidate in 2010, either for Senate or Governor (there'll most likely be two open seats). Well if Hart runs against Altmire again in 2008 and loses, she's done. But if she wins, her chances of winning in 2010 don't really improve any. She could just lay low for two years and run in 2010 and not risk a loss ruining her 2010 chances.

And even if she does run and win, she vacates the seat in 2010, meaning Altmire would likely win it back. So we get the seat in the end either way.

Your logic is flawed. Hart running again in 2010, while possible, is unlikely at this point. She screwed up her plans for the future so she'd have to stay in the seat for awhile.

Just curious, any idea who the GOP will get in PA-10?

There are a number of State Representatives and a State Senator who are believed to be interested in the race. 2004 Auditor General nominee and former Justice Department official Joe Peters is definetley in the running already. Check out - http://politics1.com/pa.htm - for a full listing.

 

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I understand that but there are also very partisan voters in Philly suburbs who insist on sticking with the GOP and SW Dems that still go for the Dems out of tradition.

[Keystone Phil]

I used to live in PA-15.  It's quickly becoming a New York City (!) commuter district, despite being 70 or 80 miles from the city.  The cities of Bethlehem and Allentown have been rotting on the vine since Bethlehem Steel died.  Meanwhile, the "suburbs" are quickly booming with new development.

It used to be a Reagan Democrat district, but the unions are fast disappearing.  It's becoming a commuter Republican district.

Looking at election trends, suburban Essex County NJ was the first to go Democrat after long being a GOP stronghold, then Union County's suburbs fell to Democrats, now Somerset County is moving towards the toss-up column, and Hunterdon County's 2006 results show a marked decrease in GOP performance over years prior.

The reason: exurb-loving Republicans are moving west.  $500,000 goes a lot farther in PA-15 than it does in NJ-07.  Just about everyone I grew up with in High School ten years ago moved to Pennsylvania to start their families.

Dent was incredibly popular in his Democratic-leaning Allentown (city) based District, and he's a terrific fit for the swing district.  I expect him to run statewide at some point, possibly for Senate -- the Lehigh Valley is influential enough to deserve its own statewide candidate.

Excellent post.

[Keystone Phil]

Charlie Dent is endorsing Rudy Giuliani. This is anexcellent move that will help both of them.

If Romney is the nominee, Dent will be hurt by the weakness of a flip-flopper on the top of the ticket. If McCain is the nominee, Dent will be hit hard on Iraq. If Brownback is the nominee, then Dent would lose to an inanimate carbon rod.


Giuliani is the only Republican candidate charismatic and popular enough to help moderate Republicans like Dent feel safe in 2008.

Dent is a RINO. Therefore, he endorsed Rudy.

Dent probably doesn't have to worry about any of those scenarios too much.  Lehigh Valley Democrats couldn't even get someone on the primary ballot last time.

While we are inclined to believe that Dent is fine, the Dems are doing some major recruiting.