The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.pottsmerc.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16985181&BRD=1674&PAG=461&dept_id=164632&rfi=6

Lois Murphy's campaign was a disaster and she still got 49% of the vote.  Considering that Democratic turnout was low because of the Rendell and Casey landslides, Gerlach should have won by a bigger margin. He's still the vulnerable member in congress. This time he won't have a GOP majority willing to do anything to save him.

So how was it a disaster? She had the money, the people, the good year, the big names coming in for her. How was turnout low because of the landslides? Turnout in PA was 50% in 2006. 50%! Again, get your facts straight before you spew stupidity!

To say that no one will want to save him is just as ridiculous as your previous posts. You have proven that you know nothing. Let's count some your ridiculous comments...

1) Congresswoman McIlvaine Smith   -  That one actually had me laughing.
2) Turnout was "low."   -  Brush up on the facts, pal.
3) Gerlach is only Pro Environment when "it doesn't matter."

And the list goes on...

You are a real joke. How old are you again and where are you from?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Democrats  take PA-03, PA-06 and PA-15, they'll have a 14-5 majority in the House delegation.

But they won't, will they? Meanwhile, as things stand, PA-10 will be lost, and if Giuliani is the GOP Presidential candidate Murphy would be in a lot of trouble in PA-8.

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Silly comment that.

I suspect that, had there been no re-districting in 2002, the GOP would have ended 2006 with just five or six seats anyway (with around 15 or so for the Democrats).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.pottsmerc.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16985181&BRD=1674&PAG=461&dept_id=164632&rfi=6

Lois Murphy's campaign was a disaster and she still got 49% of the vote.  Considering that Democratic turnout was low because of the Rendell and Casey landslides, Gerlach should have won by a bigger margin. He's still the vulnerable member in congress. This time he won't have a GOP majority willing to do anything to save him.

So how was it a disaster? She had the money, the people, the good year, the big names coming in for her. How was turnout low because of the landslides? Turnout in PA was 50% in 2006. 50%! Again, get your facts straight before you spew stupidity!

That's high? Turnout is usually well over 60% in Minnesota.

[Keystone Phil]

PA-03 was created to elect English. If he leaves, A Zack Space type Democrat will take the seat.

Too bad he's not leaving.

 PA-15 is all about recruiting. We get a  decent candidate, we win. Dent is a Republican, which means he probably can't win in a swing district.[/quote]

All about recruiting the right candidate. You need Lisa Boscola. Dent is very personally popular up there.

Hahahaha! This logic is amazing! "Dent is a Republican which means he probably can't win in a swing district." You do know that Toomey won this district quite easily three times, right? You do realize that Dent is a moderate to liberal Republican, right?

Kid, you don't know a thing!



 

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This is great. PA 18 is clearly more of a target because of his scandal (the GOP might even try to replace him) but you call him safe in the exact same post.  

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Oh wow. Nap time is over. Wake up from your dream.

[MarkWarner08]

They'll pick up PA-10 and we'll nab PA-03, PA-06, PA-015 and possibly PA-18. That's a decent trade.  We'll have trouble holding onto PA-10, anyways. PA-15 will be an easier  to hold for a Democrats not named Dertinger. Only 53% of voters cast their ballots for Charlie Dent.

Carney may be gone, but his departure will be good in the long run for the DCCC. They won't have to defend him every two years like they do for Moore, Matheson,  Edwards and now Mahoney, Boyda and McNerney.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.pottsmerc.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16985181&BRD=1674&PAG=461&dept_id=164632&rfi=6

Lois Murphy's campaign was a disaster and she still got 49% of the vote.  Considering that Democratic turnout was low because of the Rendell and Casey landslides, Gerlach should have won by a bigger margin. He's still the vulnerable member in congress. This time he won't have a GOP majority willing to do anything to save him.

So how was it a disaster? She had the money, the people, the good year, the big names coming in for her. How was turnout low because of the landslides? Turnout in PA was 50% in 2006. 50%! Again, get your facts straight before you spew stupidity!

That's high? Turnout is usually well over 60% in Minnesota.

Wonderful for Minnesota! In PA and most other states, you are lucky to get to 50% in a Presidential election year.

[MAS117]

I love how this turned into a thread about PA.

[Keystone Phil]

Only 53% of voters cast their ballots for Charlie Dent.

Do you really think every year will be like 2006? Wake up.

[MarkWarner08]

PA-03 was created to elect English. If he leaves, A Zack Space type Democrat will take the seat.

Too bad he's not leaving.

 PA-15 is all about recruiting. We get a  decent candidate, we win. Dent is a Republican, which means he probably can't win in a swing district.

All about recruiting the right candidate. You need Lisa Boscola. Dent is very personally popular up there.

Hahahaha! This logic is amazing! "Dent is a Republican which means he probably can't win in a swing district." You do know that Toomey won this district quite easily three times, right? You do realize that Dent is a moderate to liberal Republican, right?

Kid, you don't know a thing!



 

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This is great. PA 18 is clearly more of a target because of his scandal (the GOP might even try to replace him) but you call him safe in the exact same post. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh wow. Nap time is over. Wake up from your dream.
[/quote]

If 51% means Gerlach is popular, then Dent's 53% must mean he's a god.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Re: Dent, we should run a pro-life candidate against him to give us the edge on that issue and whip him on economic issues. I just looked up his rating and National Journal rates him as one of the most economically conservative members of Congress.

[MarkWarner08]

Only 53% of voters cast their ballots for Charlie Dent.

Do you really think every year will be like 2006? Wake up.

I do. I'm already awake. The War in Iraq is still on and Bush is still at sub 35%.

The GOP needs to wake up from its depression.

[Keystone Phil]

If 51% means Gerlach is popular, then Dent's 53% must mean he's a god.

Check out all of my posts. I never said Gerlach was popular.

[MarkWarner08]

Re: Dent, we should run a pro-life candidate against him to give us the edge on that issue and whip him on economic issues. I just looked up his rating and National Journal rates him as one of the most economically conservative members of Congress.

Good point.  We need a Brad Ellsworth type. Maybe we should clone Ellsworth and run him in PA-15 and PA-03.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But they won't, will they? Meanwhile, as things stand, PA-10 will be lost,

most likely true.

and if Giuliani is the GOP Presidential candidate Murphy would be in a lot of trouble in PA-8.

Which would require the religious and conservative base to nominate a guy who is more anti-gun than most Democrats, pro-partial birth abortion, lived with a gay couple and overall has a lifestyle that somewhat resemebles opebo's.

[MarkWarner08]

If 51% means Gerlach is popular, then Dent's 53% must mean he's a god.

Check out all of my posts. I never said Gerlach was popular.

If he's unpopular, then he'll have trouble in '08. He's on the precipice of defeat in 2008. This time he won't have Bush, or Murphy to bail him out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PA-03 was created to elect English.

No it wasn't; PA-3 is essentially the same (but a little larger and a little more Republican) than the old PA-21; Tom Ridge's district until 1994. English only held the district for the GOP due to the circumstances of that year (and he nearly went down in 1996), making him a good example of a fluke that's lasted.

[Keystone Phil]

I do. I'm already awake. The War in Iraq is still on and Bush is still at sub 35%.

The GOP needs to wake up from its depression.

You're awake? Ok. Check the calendar. When is Election day?

Re: Dent, we should run a pro-life candidate against him to give us the edge on that issue and whip him on economic issues. I just looked up his rating and National Journal rates him as one of the most economically conservative members of Congress.

Good point.  We need a Brad Ellsworth type. Maybe we should clone Ellsworth and run him in PA-15 and PA-03.

And you still wouldn't win PA 3. Boscola is the type of Dem you need in the 15th but here's a warning to you guys - she's a DINO. She is constantly rumored as a potential switch in the State Senate.

[MarkWarner08]

PA-03 was created to elect English.

No it wasn't; PA-3 is essentially the same (but a little larger and a little more Republican) than the old PA-21; Tom Ridge's district until 1994. English only held the district for the GOP due to the circumstances of that year (and he nearly went down in 1996), making him a good example of a fluke that's lasted.

I meant created through the 2000 gerrymandering. He won in 1996 because the Democrat was a carpetbagger. Read your 1998 Almanac of American Politics!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He won in 1996 because the Democrat was a carpetbagger. Read your 1998 Almanac of American Politics!

A fluke squared then

[Keystone Phil]

If 51% means Gerlach is popular, then Dent's 53% must mean he's a god.

Check out all of my posts. I never said Gerlach was popular.

If he's unpopular, then he'll have trouble in '08. He's on the precipice of defeat in 2008. This time he won't have Bush, or Murphy to bail him out.

Um what? If he was never really popular (as I am arguing) then he'll have trouble in his elections. He had trouble in 2002, 2004 and 2006 and still won. Let him have trouble in 2008. I guarentee that he'll win.

And what happens when he doesn't lose? He'll be on his way down in 2010, right? Then 2012?

And how the hell does Bush bail him out? They used Bush against him and everyone else in a bad way, genius.

[MarkWarner08]

I do. I'm already awake. The War in Iraq is still on and Bush is still at sub 35%.

The GOP needs to wake up from its depression.

You're awake? Ok. Check the calendar. When is Election day?

Re: Dent, we should run a pro-life candidate against him to give us the edge on that issue and whip him on economic issues. I just looked up his rating and National Journal rates him as one of the most economically conservative members of Congress.

Good point.  We need a Brad Ellsworth type. Maybe we should clone Ellsworth and run him in PA-15 and PA-03.

And you still wouldn't win PA 3. Boscola is the type of Dem you need in the 15th but here's a warning to you guys - she's a DINO. She is constantly rumored as a potential switch in the State Senate.

I'll swap a DINO for a RINO. You're just worried about what happens when your party loses touch with suburban America. You lost your majority because folks like Melissa Hart lost. Imagine what happens when the Mark Krik's and Charlie Dent's go down. Where will the GOP go?
They'll have to go back to the Deep South.

7 GOP Senators and 17 GOP House members voted wit hthe Democrats on Iraq; Gerlach didn't.  The DCCC  is watching him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Geographically PA-3 looks similar to the old PA-21, but the GOP altered it just enough to be safe for English and more Republican. Check out the 2000 numbers:

old PA-21: Bush 49.2/Gore 48.3
PA-3: Bush 51.0/Gore 46.6

[MarkWarner08]

If 51% means Gerlach is popular, then Dent's 53% must mean he's a god.

Check out all of my posts. I never said Gerlach was popular.

If he's unpopular, then he'll have trouble in '08. He's on the precipice of defeat in 2008. This time he won't have Bush, or Murphy to bail him out.

Um what? If he was never really popular (as I am arguing) then he'll have trouble in his elections. He had trouble in 2002, 2004 and 2006 and still won. Let him have trouble in 2008. I guarentee that he'll win.

And what happens when he doesn't lose? He'll be on his way down in 2010, right? Then 2012?

And how the hell does Bush bail him out? They used Bush against him and everyone else in a bad way, genius.

Bush bailed him out in 2002. Duh.  Gerlach will have to rely on Romney to help him. LMFAO

[MarkWarner08]

Geographically PA-3 looks similar to the old PA-21, but the GOP altered it just enough to be safe for English and more Republican. Check out the 2000 numbers:

old PA-21: Bush 49.2/Gore 48.3
PA-3: Bush 51.0/Gore 46.6

There gerrymandering won't be enough if it's an open seat. This seat reminds me of WI-08.

[MarkWarner08]

I do. I'm already awake. The War in Iraq is still on and Bush is still at sub 35%.

The GOP needs to wake up from its depression.

Are you insinuating that Bush will be more popular in 2008? If so, why?