Dem Internal - PA 8 - Fitz by 5

[Keystone Phil]

www.PoliticsPA.com

DCCC Poll:  Fitzpatrick under 50  A new poll conducted by Grove Insight for the DCCC shows Mike Fitzpatrick leading Patrick Murphy by just five points, 43- 38.  The poll pegged President George W. Bush's approval rating at 35.


Their own internals show them losing the big three in SE PA. Gerlach, Weldon and Fitz will win.

[Keystone Phil]

Can I put you down for that? If so, I look forward to seeing how you feel on November 7th.

I told you you could put me down for that awhile back. I don't know why you are getting cocky since your side has been hit with major setbacks in your own internal polls. You were the one that basically laughed me off when I said that Gerlach would win. You had some dumb sarcastic response but who is looking dumb now? Lois only up one in her own poll and you mean to tell me that I am the one with the foolish prediction?

Ouch. Pat Murphy's down 5% in his internal poll, and Lois is only up 1% in her's. Not looking good.

Democrats captured 49% of the vote in PA-6 in 2002 and 2004. Are both of you going to tell me that their vote share will go DOWN in what according to many pundits and political scientists is a "Democratic year"?

What don't you get? Turnout won't be nearly as high (I don't care about Rendell. He'll never bring out as many people as a Presidential contest!) and the GOP is actually focused on PA 6 this year. 2004's result was really surprising. The GOP wasn't pumping tons of money in two years ago. It is much different now.

[Keystone Phil]

this congressional election seems to be trending to a much larger turnout than most non-presidential years

That still has nothing to do with the turnout surpassing Presidential election year turnout.

[Keystone Phil]

Roll Call reports that Republicans count PA-6 along with AZ-8, TX-22. IA-1 and CO-7 as seats that are likely "Democratic pickups."

Doesn't look that way anymore, does it?

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Ok so they pumped money into the race. They were worried. That doesn't mean it was a guarenteed win for the Dems as you wanted me to believe. By the way, Lois' ads weren't that nice to Gerlach either but I wouldn't expect you to know too much about them. You see, I live here and see more while you...don't.

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There were two Dem sponsored polls. The other one (the one with Murphy up five) most likely means Gerlach is tied or slightly ahead.

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Gerlach a goner? We will see but I think that is very, very wrong.

[Keystone Phil]

Check this article which outline yet another reason Gerlach's a goner: http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15559686.htm

By the way, that article hardly suggests that Gerlach is a goner.