How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

[Keystone Phil]

Given the GOP nominee:

Marina Kats: 2%
Al Taubenberger: 0.5%
Raj Bhatka: 7%

I love your math.

There really is no chance with the likely candidates for the GOP nomination but I think Flyers' chances are off and reflect his partisan attitude.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree with Flyers (maybe I'd give Kats and Taubenberger a BIT higher but not much).  This isn't the PA-13 of the 1990s or even 2002.  Schwartz is also a much stronger candidate than Hoeffel was.

Schwartz is a stronger candidate but more out of step. Taubenberger, Kats, Bhakta...they aren't going to win. We all know that. But 0.5% or 2% chance? Come on. This isn't PA 2.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

I said it would be a BIT higher with Taubenberger, but honestly not much with a weak candidate like him.

What? 3%? Still higher.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

I said it would be a BIT higher with Taubenberger, but honestly not much with a weak candidate like him.

What? 3%? Still higher.

I really donn't think this we need to have an argument.  We can just agree that Allyson Schwartz is very, very likely to be re-elected, espeically given the weakness of potential challengers.

No argument from me on that point.

[Keystone Phil]

Chakah Fattah could possibly lose the primary (2%), but the only way his district goes Republican is if I'm the only voter.

You and the people in the very, very small NE Philly part of PA 2. I feel so bad for them.

[Keystone Phil]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

32%???  Get off the crack cocaine!  You guys need a massive national GOP turnaround, which is not likely, for me to consider your chances here at over 15%.   Given the current national GOP's position, you guys are looking realistically at 10% and I'm being generous.  You now have PA 6 and PA 8 to defend.  The guns have turned, you are on the defensive now.  If the national GOP wants to drain resources here, fine, by all means, but it will more likely hurt you.

32% is better than the 0.5% chance you put down, hack.

[Keystone Phil]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

32%???  Get off the crack cocaine!  You guys need a massive national GOP turnaround, which is not likely, for me to consider your chances here at over 15%.   Given the current national GOP's position, you guys are looking realistically at 10% and I'm being generous.  You now have PA 6 and PA 8 to defend.  The guns have turned, you are on the defensive now.  If the national GOP wants to drain resources here, fine, by all means, but it will more likely hurt you.

32% is better than the 0.5% chance you put down, hack.

Considering thee Cook report has PA 13 listed as SAFE Democrat, I would say Flyers original prediction is closer than this asinine 32% projection.  (Safe would basically mean less than 10% of switching) and well 10% is much closer to 0.5% than 32%

Schwartz wasn't elected with 75-80% of the vote so the assinine remark would be 0.5%, hack.

[Keystone Phil]

32% would be the odds for a competitive race.   

You're dumb.

[Keystone Phil]

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane

Uh...the woman isn't incredibly popular, Lewis. She won based on negative attacks on her opponent and she still received 56% of the vote. We're not talking about someone who has received, or ever will receive, 70-80% in this district.