Sanoturm/Guiliani ticket - who can beat them if Santorum wins PA

[Keystone Phil]

I think Hillary can still win PA.  Santorum is toast in the Southeast and he needs us to win PA.

You're delusional.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Hillary can still win PA.  Santorum is toast in the Southeast and he needs us to win PA.

You're delusional.

Well, it's true, most of the population lives there, an I doubt they like him very much. 

They don't like him but if Santorum can beat Bob Casey in 2006, he can easily take the state against Hillary.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Hillary can still win PA.  Santorum is toast in the Southeast and he needs us to win PA.

You're delusional.

I agree.  The fact is, many people do like Santorum.  I doubt even 45% of the population agrees with him politically, but he is a great campaigner.  Many people (not including me) see him as the Common Man, so they have a favorable opinion of him.  I used to underestimate him, but know I believe he will be a formidable opponent to Casey (though Casey still has an advantage) and could easily beat Hillary (if he wins reelection).

Well, thank you, True Dem. I know that there are a number of Democrats out there that think the same way but wouldn't dare tell members of their party that Santorum is stronger than they think. Good for you, True Dem.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Hillary can still win PA.  Santorum is toast in the Southeast and he needs us to win PA.

You're delusional.

I agree.  The fact is, many people do like Santorum.  I doubt even 45% of the population agrees with him politically, but he is a great campaigner.  Many people (not including me) see him as the Common Man, so they have a favorable opinion of him.  I used to underestimate him, but know I believe he will be a formidable opponent to Casey (though Casey still has an advantage) and could easily beat Hillary (if he wins reelection).

You are absoultely right, but Santorum has oodles of cash to make him sound like the "common man" <LMAO>.  If Allyson Schwartz won against Col. Klink in 2000 in the Dem primary, you could be rest assured EMILY's List $$$ along with the Southeast would have axed Little Dicky in favor of Schwartz who surprisingly to your dismay Phil is a moderate, not Barbara Boxer. 

Schwartz is a moderate. I'll respond to that when I'm done laughing...

And if Schwartz was the nominee against Santorum in 2000, the southeast would have been better for the Dems but kiss every last conservative Dem goodbye in the rest of the state!

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If the abortion issue was made more of an issue, do you think Schwartz would have gotten to 60%? No! Brown had a "childish" website? Remember SleazyMelissa brought to you by the Schwartz campaign?

I love when you get in these pissy moods. "Wasn't that a kick in the groin, buddy?" Hey, is Brendan liking the job at McDonald's?

Schwartz in PA 13 and Schwartz statewide are very different, pal. You'll see that in 2010 but you'll never learn.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum won twice statewide for Seante, so no he actually doesn't "need" southeast you guys.

In all fairness, without the SE in 2000 (which he did win), it would have been close. However, I don't think he did all that well here in '94 yet won the seat.

Some of the arrogant people that reside in the same area as I do continue to make the SE look bad when they make it seem like we are the only people that matter. A candidate does not need to SE to win. But here's some advice: Keep saying what you're saying, Flyers. While you make some people (like myself) look bad as a resident of SE PA, you help the GOP. Lock up the west for us, please. Make your foolish comments. Maybe we can get Eddie to make a slip up like that, too. You only destroy yourself.

[Keystone Phil]

Thank you!  The GOP will always be respectable in the SE, but it is rapidly slipping from them.  And don't think the West will be "locked up" just yet Phil.  Remember, there will always be economic populists in PA that will vote accordingly.

The west is locked up. How does Rendell possibly overcome his problems there? They weren't all that crazy about him in 2002 and now he's going save himself when only 25% of voters in just the southwest want him again? You're done out west.

[Keystone Phil]

Hafer is a fairly stong opponent

You're a funny guy.

[Keystone Phil]

Hafer is a fairly stong opponent

You're a funny guy.

Hafer would do  better against Santorum than anyone in the GOP being thrown around to take on Rendell would do against Rendell

Hafer would be lucky to break 46%. Unless the GOP nominates Piccola or Scranton, I have a feeling we'll break 46%.

[Keystone Phil]

Based off what??  Hafer is quite a bit stronger than someone like  Swann or Castor, please.

Once again, you're a funny guy.

...such a hack...

[Keystone Phil]

Based off what??  Hafer is quite a bit stronger than someone like  Swann or Castor, please.

Once again, you're a funny guy.

...such a hack...

You seem to have it a bit backwards there.  Your the hack.  Bottom line is Rendell is favored over Castor & Swann, Santorum would be favored over someone like Hafer, but Hafer while not nearly as strong of a candidate as Casey is a stronger candidate than Castor & Swann are & would do better against Santorum than Castor or Swann would do against Rendell

In 2002, Rendell's weak Republican opponent received 44% of the vote. Swann or Castor are seen as candidates that could actually beat Rendell. For you to say that they'd do worse than Hafer (who would receive about 46 or 47% of the vote) just furthers the belief that you're the most partisan Democratic hack on this forum.

[Keystone Phil]

  Yes Fisher was a weak opponent, but Fisher was actually a stronger opponent than Kilnk, who lost to the INCUMBENT Santorum by 7 in 2002.  Klink was a HORRID canidate, Hafer is a stronger candidate than Klink. 

First of all, Fisher was weaker than Klink! Fisher received 44%. Klink received 46%. Using your logic, Klink should have lost by more since Santorum was an incumbent. Klink was weak but so is Hafer. Hafer would bring one thing to the race: money. That's it. She'd stand no chance with conservative Democrats.

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Haha. Ok, Smash.

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What the hell do you keep going on about Santorum being an incumbent for? That means Klink should have been weaker than Fisher, correct? Well he wasn't! Why are you so stupid?

[Keystone Phil]

... BUT a very good chance with liberal Republicans in Southeastern PA.  Rememerb Phil, Hafer has a base of support in Southwest PA and would redily cut through Santorum's Southeast margin in 2000 like a knife through whipped cream after his book, Schaivo, and all the other crap he's pulled.  Oh, by the way read the NE Times this week.  Yep, the writer there said something about your boy and IIRC he has wrote some conservative op-eds in the past.

Hafer doesn't have a base here. She'd do well but she doesn't start off with a base. Her loss is every other part of the start would outweigh her strength here.

And as for any Santorum editorial from the inconsistent NE Times, I didn't read it nor do I care. That paper went from endorsing Al Taubenberger and Joe Torsella (the two most conservative candidates in their respective primaries) to endorsing Schwartz in the General. They only go with what's popular.

[Keystone Phil]

Hafer is surley stronger han Klink.  Klink was an extrmely weak opponent, yet he stll lost by just 8 to an incumbent.

Hafer is not stronger. Her social liberalism would help in the SE but hurt everywhere else. And Klink wasn't as weak as you think.

 

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Hafer has a base in the SW? There is a time when we should joke and a time when we need to be serious, hack. This is a time to be serious.

 

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I'm not going to keep arguing this over and over again. Castor is strong in a more Democratic county. Swann is well known and popular in his home area. Hafer has nothing. SE helps but she has no base.

[Keystone Phil]

You seem to think Santorum is unbeatable aganst anyone other than Casey.  Thats simply not the case.  While he would clearly be favorite against Hafer, he would still face a tougher race than Rendell would against Swann or Castor.

Unbeatable? No but pretty close. Very likely to win re-election against anyone but Casey.

And, once again I must state because of your clear lacking of knowledge about PA politics, Santorum vs. Hafer would not be closer than Rendell vs. Swann or Castor.

Castor has a base in Rendell's backyard. He also would capitalize on the strong anti-Rendell feelings of the west. Castor would not get less than 47% against Rendell.

As for Swann, since Castor is now unlikely to run for Governor and since Swann is the likely nominee, we'll have to see how things go. Come back after the '06 elections. I'm positive that Swann will receive more than 46% of the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

We all saw how accurate you were with PA-13....

Flyers was worried about a Brown win, too, early on and actually was off when it came down to how much Schwartz would win by. You can't judge my analysis of PA as a whole by PA 13. You are just flat out clueless when it comes to this. You make things up and think it's good analysis of the state. Basically, you're a more annoying BRTD.

[Keystone Phil]

1.  I wasmainly being a smart ass with the PA 13 comment.  You tend to come across as Mr Know It All when it comes down to PA politics & if someone disagrees with you & doesn't see Santorum as all that popular that they must be really wrong.

You are wrong. You think Santorum is unpopular here. That's wrong. Sorry.

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Money isn't everything. You'll see that in the '06 Senate race here.

Hafer would fundraise but would be seen as one of the most out of touch candidates to run.

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Issues like social security could really hurt Santorum and diminish how well he could do out west. Ok. Social Security is off the radar screen right now and might be next year, too. But if it reappears, Santorum won't be "diminished" out west. He's led the fight for reform yet remains popular.

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No, I'm not. I'm tired of having this conversation. You're a partisan hack who has very, very little knowledge of how things work here.


 

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The campaign hasn't started. If Fisher could get to 44%, Swann could get there and likely pass it and Castor could easily pass that.


 

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Maybe putting this in bold will help.... YOU CAN'T USE THE INCUMBENT POINT WHEN YOU'RE AN UNPOPULAR INCUMBENT.

Maybe it will work. Maybe you'll remain a clueless hack. I go with the latter.


 

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That doesn't make sense and can guarentee that you can't give me an example of an incumbent, slipping in the polls, with terrible re-elect numbers who ended up winning.

[Keystone Phil]

Hafer is stronger than you think period,

Fundraising might be a strength but it doesn't outweigh her other problems. You fail to realize that.

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How do you know that Castor couldn't keep up with Rendell? He's seen as the best chance to beat Rendell so I'm sure he'd have some money thrown his way. He wouldn't be neck and neck with Rendell for fundraising but you need to stop thinking that whoever runs against Rendell will be broke.


 

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Social security was brought up in 2000. Klink used it. Klink is stronger out west than Hafer (more in line with the average western PA voter than Hafer by far). Santorum destroyed him. Can I make it easier for you?



 

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You come up with the worst reasoning for everything. Take the SE away from Santorum. Fine. I know that. Everyone knows that. But your thought about Social security is getting annoying. He would not lose the west to Hafer.

[Keystone Phil]

About Hafer, the Northeast only voted for Kerry by a few percenatage points, mainly on his strength in Scranton. It is doubtful that Hafer could preform anywhere near Kerry in a the Northeast. As for the Southwest and the West as a whole, Santorum would obviously dominate save for the city of Pittsburgh. The "T" would go big for Santorum leaving the Southeast as Hafer's saving grace. Hafer would have to improve upon Kerry by a significant margin in the Southeast to come close to winning, something which is very doubtful.

Casey's strength comes from his populism and his ability to put areas like the West and Northeast back in the Democratic column. Casey has a large base of populist Democrats that would normally vote for a Republican against a Hafer-like liberal. Hafer brings only her liberal base to the table, no sway among populists in the key regions. Hafer would depend upon massive turnout in the SE and somehow swinging 5% additional voters from Kerry's column in the SE to defeat Santorum. Hafer is likely to lose a House race and would be sure to lose the Senate race.

A comment on fundraising. Hafer brings the pro-abortion lobby and the MoveOn lobby to play. That's obviously a double edged sword with the voters she needs to recruit.

Thank you but the hack will probably just repeat what he's been saying for days, refusing to realize he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I admit that I've made my mistakes but Smash is just terrible and has no knowledge of this state's politics at all.

[Keystone Phil]

You also have to remember, Smash, that Santorum might be able to save himself with a few moderate Republican voters in the SE by focusing on how Hafer is a turncoat. She might be more in line with some of their views but if he hit that hard enough (with enough backing from the local GOP leaders) he could ease the pain in the SE.

[Keystone Phil]

1.  I never said Swann, or Castor would be broke.  What I said is the fundraising gap between Rendell & Swann or Rendell & castor would be larger than the gap between Santorum & hafer.

They'd do better than you think.

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Hafer isn't exactly Ms. Personality, Smash. I love how you are also saying this from New York. How many times have you heard her speak? How would you know that she's stronger than Klink? And, actually, Klink was a good speaker. He was a TV reporter before going to Congress! (See, that's what happens when you know something, Smash. You make a good point!)

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Social security is always an issue here, Smash but never as big as the Democrats would like.

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Wrong. Social security was, yet again, an issue in 2004. Bush did very well out west as did conservative Republican candidates.

 

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No way! I thought you saying it sixteen times meant it would be a smaller than usual issue.


 

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Your reasoning for things is so poor. I really do feel bad sometimes. Read over Jake's post. Maybe you'll realize something.

[Keystone Phil]

We all saw how accurate you were with PA-13....

Flyers was worried about a Brown win, too, early on and actually was off when it came down to how much Schwartz would win by. You can't judge my analysis of PA as a whole by PA 13. You are just flat out clueless when it comes to this. You make things up and think it's good analysis of the state. Basically, you're a more annoying BRTD.

Where to begin?  Yes, I was worried about a Brown win after Hoeffel's near loss in 2002, but I realized the local numbers were much more in favor of the Democrats nationally in 2004.  You can't say it was just Rendell that helped Hoeffel.  I know the GOP has some pull at the city and state level in Northeast Philly, but surely not at the national level and I'm not just talking about the Presidency.  I may also add Arlen Specter only won 6 out of 14 wards in NE Philly against Hoeffel while Bush won NONE!  Specter even won my moderately liberal 56th Ward.  Not impressive especially considering how well the GOP did here in the 1980s, which IHMO was phenomenal relative to today.  I think Santorum would perform at best against a Joe Hoeffel or Barb Hafer 2 wards in NE Philly being the 55th and 64th.  NE Philly is a bellweather, leaning slightly more Dem than the state at large.  I also recall Rick Santorum winning every suburban Philadelphia county as well.  Do you honestly think he could win Montgomery or Delaware after Bush got his ass trounced in both of them?  I also think Hoeffel/Hafer could pull off Bucks and maybe even Chester with Rendell on top of the ticket as well.  I realize Santorum would gain over Klink out west with a candidate such as Hoeffel, not Hafer.  Where is the population growth in PA Phil?  You guessed it right- the Southeast!  Do you also recall how far Klink was down in the polls just days before the 2000 election?  Try 20 points.  He was written off quite early.  I hate to repeat myself, but how did Debbie Stabenow beat the supposedly popular Spencer Abraham in Michigan.  Remember, Michigan very closely resembles Pennsylvania in political geography.  Stabenow down 17 up to 4 weeks before the election.  EMILY's List comes in= GAME OVER FOR SPENCER ABRAHAM!       

When did I ever say Santorum would win Montco or Delco? I said he'd lose both but his margins elsewhere (there is more to the state, Flyers) would mean a comfortable win.

EMILY's List doesn't work here statewide, pal! Get over it!