PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Keystone Phil]

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

I'm the only one that thinks what? That Castor would be a strong challenger? Ask Flyers what he thinks. And my debating skills have nothing to do with who can win. It's not my fault if hacks like yourself are so abundant on this forum.

[Keystone Phil]

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Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

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Really?

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

You're such an idiot.

[Keystone Phil]

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

I'm the only one that thinks what? That Castor would be a strong challenger? Ask Flyers what he thinks. And my debating skills have nothing to do with who can win. It's not my fault if hacks like yourself are so abundant on this forum.

I'm a partisan hack? Pot --> Kettle --> Black

In your eyes, Rendell is invinsible. You're the perfect example of a partisan hack.

[Keystone Phil]

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Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

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Really?

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

You're such an idiot.

I haven't made any comments on what I think about Castor...all I know is that even bullmoose disputes your claim.

You were saying that I'm the only one that believed he was a strong candidate and made that seem foolish. Also, if you can't admit here and now that Castor is a strong candidate, than you're a partisan hack. No doubt about it.

[Keystone Phil]

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Oh so no incumbent Governor has been defeated therefore Rendell cannot lose? That's good reasoning, dan.

Facts: Rendell keeps slipping in approval ratings. Rendell's negatives are high. You have a hard time with those.

[Keystone Phil]

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Umm, I haven't even commented on Castor yet. At this point, Rendell has no strong challengers. Sorry my friend.

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Really?

New Rendell approval/disapproval ratings here, folks.

http://politicspa.com/temp/clay_2f.htm

I'm interested in what the Democrat reaction to these numbers are considering last summer a sub-50% number for Bush meant he was toast.  Now Eddie is in the same situation.  Somehow I don't think they are going to say he's toast.

Rendell has no strong challenger.

Bruce Castor wouldn't be a strong challenger? Here's a suggestion: Give up being a partisan hack for one day.

lol....notice you are the only one who thinks that. You're such a horrible debater.

You're such an idiot.

I haven't made any comments on what I think about Castor...all I know is that even bullmoose disputes your claim.

You were saying that I'm the only one that believed he was a strong candidate and made that seem foolish. Also, if you can't admit here and now that Castor is a strong candidate, than you're a partisan hack. No doubt about it.

I trust bullmoose on this one, sorry Keystone Hack.

Oh so you don't have an opinion. Is it because you don't know what you're talking about? I think so.

[Keystone Phil]

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Oh so no incumbent Governor has been defeated therefore Rendell cannot lose? That's good reasoning, dan.

Facts: Rendell keeps slipping in approval ratings. Rendell's negatives are high. You have a hard time with those.

I've said it before I'll say it again...Rendell and Santorum are in nearly the same boat. The difference? Rendell has no strong challenger.

Castor would be a strong challeneger (if he runs)! Accept it!

[Keystone Phil]

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Good argument (when you don't have one of your own to use).

[Keystone Phil]

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When I follow politics and see Rendell more on Comcast SportsNet, then we know there is a problem.

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Not with Castor on the ballot. If he can't win the SE by the numbers he did in 2002, he's not very likely to win. Castor makes Montco very close and Bucks, Chester, Berks are all in play.

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It won't help him enough in areas out west. Maybe the NE area but not the west.

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I hate to say this but there might come a point where the state party has to focus on other areas. Say it's August of 2006 and Santorum is still down to Casey by 10-15 points. The state party is going to realize a Santorum win will is unlikely and shift the focus elsewhere. If Castor is our nominee, the money and focus will go to him.

Also, if the next poll to come out shows Santorum down the by 14 or so points, listen for the talk about retirement.

[Keystone Phil]

Word is that Castor met with GOP lawmakers and wants to see some poll numbers before he jumps into the race.

http://www.kyw1060.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45894

[Keystone Phil]

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I watched Swann's speech on PCN yesterday and let me just say....he obviously lacks substance and has no plan whatsoever. Look at this quote! My jaw dropped when he said this: "It's not important that I have ideas." Basically the whole theme of his speech was I don't have much of a plan or any unique ideas but I agree with Piccola and Scranton on the facts. Yea, and Rendell sucks.

Swann is an empty shell and just a name. I mean sure, Casey is just a name...but at least there's some substance behind it. Rendell would absolutely destroy Swann in any debate. Piccola looks really weak at this point...he's very boring and after all he voted for all of Rendell's "tax increases"

Scranton looks like the only guy with a chance at taking out Rendell, and an outside chance at that.

Piccola is a joke and won't get the nomination. It's as simple as that. If Castor doesn't get in, it's between Scranton and Swann. Out of the two, I'd say Swann has a better shot at beating Rendell.

Also, posting an article from a writer who has demonstrated his bias in the past means nothing to me.

[Keystone Phil]

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I watched Swann's speech on PCN yesterday and let me just say....he obviously lacks substance and has no plan whatsoever. Look at this quote! My jaw dropped when he said this: "It's not important that I have ideas." Basically the whole theme of his speech was I don't have much of a plan or any unique ideas but I agree with Piccola and Scranton on the facts. Yea, and Rendell sucks.

Swann is an empty shell and just a name. I mean sure, Casey is just a name...but at least there's some substance behind it. Rendell would absolutely destroy Swann in any debate. Piccola looks really weak at this point...he's very boring and after all he voted for all of Rendell's "tax increases"

Scranton looks like the only guy with a chance at taking out Rendell, and an outside chance at that.

Piccola is a joke and won't get the nomination. It's as simple as that. If Castor doesn't get in, it's between Scranton and Swann. Out of the two, I'd say Swann has a better shot at beating Rendell.

Also, posting an article from a writer who has demonstrated his bias in the past means nothing to me.

Did you see his speech though? I think you might change your mind if you saw it. Just horrible...no substance at all...no plan....no ideas. I sure as hell wouldn't want somebody like that representing my party against somebody as experienced as Rendell.

Well he better get a plan soon. Though I share his views on most issues, I don't want to see him turn into a joke because he doesn't have any ideas to put forth. Right now, I'm hoping Castor runs. If he doesn't, I'll be supporting Swann again. Hopefully by then he'll develop some sort of agenda.

[Keystone Phil]

I know danwxman loves to quote Pennsylvanians political pollsters when it comes to this race so I'm sure he'll love to hear what I heard this morning.

In the Philadelphia media market we have a program called Inside Story This morning they began discussing the Philadelphia corruption trial which led into a discussion about campaign contributions which then led into the point about the Santorum-Casey race. The commentators were stating how expensive this race will be and so on and so forth. Well one of the Republican commentators (Greg Melinson) threw in the fact that we also have a Governor's race which will be expensive, too.

Now if I was danwxman or any other partisan Dem that loves Ed Rendell I would be thinking "Well look. He's a Republican. Of course he wants to make it seem like the Governor's race will be a big contest." Well wait just a minute.

Another one of the commentators followed up on the point. He said that in 2002, Rendell spent around $43 million to win the Governor's race. The commentator then when on to how Rendell will likely receive a strong challenge from a Republican next year which would mean another expensive statewide race here in PA.

Do you know who that commentator was?

It was Terry Maddona.

PA Dems, I think it's time you guys have to admit that Rendell is not the safe bet you thought he was. Terry Maddona isn't even on your side anymore.

[Keystone Phil]

  Rendell only leads Swann by 6 percent (50-44) according to Survey USA

When was that released? Where is it?

[Keystone Phil]

Reason seems to be what they want to happen. Same goes for some of the analysis the PA Republicans here come out with.
Both sides are pretty bad for that actually.

What's our analysis? I think every PA Republican here admits that it would be tough to beat Rendell. The Democrats here say it's pretty much impossible for him to lose.

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

Castor will cut into Rendell's Montco margin from Rendell +36 to say anywhere between Rendell +22 to +28.  Bruce Castor is a popular DA, but DA's are surely treated differently when running for an executive or legilsative office.  Rendell has star power. 

Sorry, Flyers, but you're such a hack. Castor gets +70% at the polls in DA races. He's the last unifying figure for the Montco GOP. They love him. And you say he'd only cut into Rendell's support by about eight points? Give me a break. You also refuse to take into account how Castor would do in places like Bucks and Chester. There are a high amount of Rendell Republicans in those counties but with someone like Castor on the ballot, they pretty much disappear.

[Keystone Phil]

The Democrats (Flyers and danwxman especially) refuse to admit Castor would cut into Rendell's margins in the SE.  At the same time, they peddle the lie that Rendell is strong out west.

Exactly. Now Terry Madonna is saying that Rendell will have a strong challenger and our PA Dems always used his analysis. I wonder what they'll say now.

Castor will cut into Rendell's Montco margin from Rendell +36 to say anywhere between Rendell +22 to +28.  Bruce Castor is a popular DA, but DA's are surely treated differently when running for an executive or legilsative office.  Rendell has star power. 

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How mature.

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Rendell Republicans went for Kerry and will surely go for their man again- Ed Rendell. 

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You are a hack. It has nothing to do with maturity. It's the truth.

The 2002 Rendell Republicans have no reason to go for Rendell if their one of their heros is running for Governor. You really don't understand how popular Castor is amongst Montco Republicans. You really have no idea.

[Keystone Phil]

How am I a hack?  I am a little nervous about Rendell, but not that much.  A lot can happen between now and 2006.  Why the hate for him?  It really beats me! 

I don't hate you. It just seems like your part of the hack pack when it comes to Rendell. Would you agree with Mr. Madonna that Rendell will likely have a strong GOP challenger?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

You're still talking about montco republicans...which are just a plurality in the county...

They still have the power to turn the whole race around. Rendell having to defend parts of the SE is a big danger warning for him.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

And a good number also love Rendell.

If the Republicans in Montco have to choose between Rendell and Castor, it's definetley lean towards Castor. I've seen this stuff first hand at a Montco GOP convention. He's very popular.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

And a good number also love Rendell.

If the Republicans in Montco have to choose between Rendell and Castor, it's definetley lean towards Castor. I've seen this stuff first hand at a Montco GOP convention. He's very popular.

Well I've never been to a Montco GOP Convention (or any GOP Convention for that matter), but I stand by my prediction.

There's no way that someone that popular amongst his own party would lose by the amount you predicted. Republicans are the reason why Rendell beat Fisher so badly in Montco. That doesn't even come close to happening against Castor.

[Keystone Phil]

Make sure you look at this analysis of why Rendell will be defeated in 2006. Now I know it's written by a Young Republican leader but there are some poll numbers included and other issues that clearly hurt Rendell.
 
http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/gsterns.htm

[Keystone Phil]

Make sure you look at this analysis of why Rendell will be defeated in 2006. Now I know it's written by a Young Republican leader but there are some poll numbers included and other issues that clearly hurt Rendell.
 
http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/gsterns.htm

Why is Rendell leading the Republican challengers by 20 points then?

It might have something to do with people not knowing who they are yet. The main point is that he's not in great shape going into this election. While he'd beat Piccola or Scranton, he'd have a tough race against Castor or Swann. Get a decent candidate and add the fact that these races are referendums on the incumbent and you have Ed Rendell out of office.