COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[TJ in Oregon]

Remdesivir has shown promise and I'm definitely interested to see its potential, but the FDA approval process is slow and deliberate.  By approving a drug or treatment, the FDA is basically saying "we have conclusively determined that this item's benefits outweigh its risks."  And with something novel like COVID-19, they need to do more thorough testing before upping its status from compassionate use designation.  

There's no time left. People are dying RIGHT NOW.

I know, I know.  But ethically, medical providers can't just say "let's try it! If it works it works.  If it doesn't, it doesn't" -- especially with a novel drug such as remdesivir.  The "doesn't work" side of the coin isn't restricted to simply not having any effect at all.  It could mean adverse and dangerous side effects.  It could mean unexpected interactions with other drugs.  

The unknown is a major factor in the administration of novel medications.  Politics and money aside (though, hey, it's drug companies, so those are always considerations), that's why testing is so important and so deliberate.  

I though the safety trials had already been completed for Remdesivir from its Ebola testing days and they were primarily testing for efficacy now?

[TJ in Oregon]

The Murray model has finally updated...and it looks good for America but bad for the "doom and gloomers".  The peak is now expected to come by mid-April, but the bigger news is that the death projections were revised down to 81K and that widespread hospital bed shortages are no longer expected.  The curves also look like things will be pretty much back to normal by May 1.

If we're not peaking until mid-April how are we going to be pretty much back to normal by May 1? Everywhere else this has hit is showing a positively-skewed normal distribution of active cases, so if it took us from March 11-April 15th or so to get to the peak, it will take even longer to get back down to March 11 levels after the peak. If it peaks April 15th, that would put us returning to normal, oh, probably sometime in June.

[TJ in Oregon]

Step 1. There are projections that a huge number of people will die if no action is taken, but if certain actions are taken then the number will be much less.

Step 2. Those actions are taken.

Step 3. The number of deaths is close to the smaller number above.

Step 4.  Some people say "see, we didn't need to do this after all!  It was all fear mongering."

Conclusion: some people don't understand cause and effect.

This is very much true, but so is the flip side:

Step 1. There are projections that a huge number of people will die if no action is taken, but if certain actions are taken then the number will be much less.

Step 2. Those actions are taken.

Step 3.  Some people still say we're going to have the same huge number of deaths.

I think you see about every form of illogical thinking there is in something like this.

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

Histronics aside, you're going to have a hard time acting in a crisis if you only do things based on what you can absolutely prove. Heck, you couldn't do my engineering job if that was your standard either. You sometimes have to estimate to make calculated risks. This was a risk that should not have been taken.

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

Histronics aside, you're going to have a hard time acting in a crisis if you only do things based on what you can absolutely prove. Heck, you couldn't do my engineering job if that was your standard either. You sometimes have to estimate to make calculated risks. This was a risk that should not have been taken.

When the question is whether or not to restrict the rights of Americans, you're going to need a little more evidence that people walking around on empty beaches is a risk.  Miami and most other major cities had already closed their own beaches on their own accord.  I'm talking about the whole state.

Presumably they'd run into the same problems we've had everywhere with this thing. In Oregon for instance, the first weekend after the shutdowns began, seemingly everyone tried to all go to the beach and parks. So after no one followed the social distancing requests, they shut down the beaches and parks too, which really sucks. If people were walking around alone on empty beaches, they probably wouldn't have needed to close them. It's a shame people won't behave so we can't have nice things.

[TJ in Oregon]

^
From the article:

However, Perdue’s financial disclosures also list transactions that appear to contradict allegations he is profiting off inside information about the virus. He sold nearly $400,000 in shares of Kroger, even as the grocer faces increased demand. He invested as much as $75,000 in retailer Urban Outfitter before all its stores were closed, although savvy investors often buy a stock when its price is down and they think it’s a good value.

Perdue’s spokeswoman said everything on his report reflects business as usual with his financial advisers making every call. The senator has spent recent weeks focused on connecting Georgians affected by the pandemic with information and resources, including helping those stuck overseas find a way home, she said.

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

Histronics aside, you're going to have a hard time acting in a crisis if you only do things based on what you can absolutely prove. Heck, you couldn't do my engineering job if that was your standard either. You sometimes have to estimate to make calculated risks. This was a risk that should not have been taken.

When the question is whether or not to restrict the rights of Americans, you're going to need a little more evidence that people walking around on empty beaches is a risk.  Miami and most other major cities had already closed their own beaches on their own accord.  I'm talking about the whole state.

Presumably they'd run into the same problems we've had everywhere with this thing. In Oregon for instance, the first weekend after the shutdowns began, seemingly everyone tried to all go to the beach and parks. So after no one followed the social distancing requests, they shut down the beaches and parks too, which really sucks. If people were walking around alone on empty beaches, they probably wouldn't have needed to close them. It's a shame people won't behave so we can't have nice things.

My rights to leave my house (and in Chicago, go in a park) should not revolve around other people's good or bad behavior.  Your thought process seems flawed.

I'm not really sure what to tell you besides that life isn't fair. Clearly what we're allowed to do in a situation like this is going to be dependent on how other people respond. The government can't have two separate sets of laws, one for Green Line and one of the rest of us.

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

Histronics aside, you're going to have a hard time acting in a crisis if you only do things based on what you can absolutely prove. Heck, you couldn't do my engineering job if that was your standard either. You sometimes have to estimate to make calculated risks. This was a risk that should not have been taken.

When the question is whether or not to restrict the rights of Americans, you're going to need a little more evidence that people walking around on empty beaches is a risk.  Miami and most other major cities had already closed their own beaches on their own accord.  I'm talking about the whole state.

Presumably they'd run into the same problems we've had everywhere with this thing. In Oregon for instance, the first weekend after the shutdowns began, seemingly everyone tried to all go to the beach and parks. So after no one followed the social distancing requests, they shut down the beaches and parks too, which really sucks. If people were walking around alone on empty beaches, they probably wouldn't have needed to close them. It's a shame people won't behave so we can't have nice things.

My rights to leave my house (and in Chicago, go in a park) should not revolve around other people's good or bad behavior.  Your thought process seems flawed.

I'm not really sure what to tell you besides that life isn't fair. Clearly what we're allowed to do in a situation like this is going to be dependent on how other people respond. The government can't have two separate sets of laws, one for Green Line and one of the rest of us.

I hope you can keep that attitude when it comes to something else like the Church.  No more communion hosts or Blood of Christ because the Govt. says its unsanitary.  Life isn't fair.

If we all took that attitude, nothing would ever change.

One main difference is that religious practice has an explicit constitutional protection that going to the beach does not.

That being said, for better or worse, the Church chose to comply with authorities who shut her down. My Archbishop has forbidden the laity from receiving communion even privately (presumably to prevent favortism from creeping in with the most pushy parishioners). I do think the government was too quick to shut down Churches when we still (at least here in Oregon) had gyms and tanning salons still open. It will be interesting to watch if the authorities allow Churches to reopen freely after this or if the public health crisis "lasts" longer with churches than it does with businesses. As our government's priorities indicate, they clearly believe churches to be recreational facilities.

As an aside, I'm not sure what the government in Illinois has done, but Oregon is still allowing people to go outside alone without asking questions. So this means I can still go for a run or take a walk. I'm thankful for that, since otherwise this would be much more difficult than it already is.

[TJ in Oregon]

Florida and DeSantis have been raked over the coals on here and in much of the media.

At what point do facts enter the conversation?  We've been hearing for a month now that Florida is about to explode and DeSantis committed mass murder by not closing beaches (lol).  Florida has less deaths than Illinois despite having millions more residents, and at the same time has tested about 20K more and has a similar number of infected.  Somehow JB has been praised on here for his strong response.

Anyone willing to admit they were just making stuff up when the said beaches were going to cause mass murder?

It's very likely still the inebriated undergrads who they allowed to keep partying there went home and seeded outbreaks all over the place. Even if we kept most of America open and running, it's the sort of thing you'd need to ban real fast if you want to get coronavirus under control.

Something that you can't really prove, and aside from that, it wasn't the narrative we were pushed.  I heard many times that DeSantis needs to be impeached for killing his own residents.  Spring Break was very much over when people were still calling the beaches a place of great danger.

Histronics aside, you're going to have a hard time acting in a crisis if you only do things based on what you can absolutely prove. Heck, you couldn't do my engineering job if that was your standard either. You sometimes have to estimate to make calculated risks. This was a risk that should not have been taken.

When the question is whether or not to restrict the rights of Americans, you're going to need a little more evidence that people walking around on empty beaches is a risk.  Miami and most other major cities had already closed their own beaches on their own accord.  I'm talking about the whole state.

Presumably they'd run into the same problems we've had everywhere with this thing. In Oregon for instance, the first weekend after the shutdowns began, seemingly everyone tried to all go to the beach and parks. So after no one followed the social distancing requests, they shut down the beaches and parks too, which really sucks. If people were walking around alone on empty beaches, they probably wouldn't have needed to close them. It's a shame people won't behave so we can't have nice things.

My rights to leave my house (and in Chicago, go in a park) should not revolve around other people's good or bad behavior.  Your thought process seems flawed.

I'm not really sure what to tell you besides that life isn't fair. Clearly what we're allowed to do in a situation like this is going to be dependent on how other people respond. The government can't have two separate sets of laws, one for Green Line and one of the rest of us.

I hope you can keep that attitude when it comes to something else like the Church.  No more communion hosts or Blood of Christ because the Govt. says its unsanitary.  Life isn't fair.

If we all took that attitude, nothing would ever change.

One main difference is that religious practice has an explicit constitutional protection that going to the beach does not.

That being said, for better or worse, the Church chose to comply with authorities who shut her down. My Archbishop has forbidden the laity from receiving communion even privately (presumably to prevent favortism from creeping in with the most pushy parishioners). I do think the government was too quick to shut down Churches when we still (at least here in Oregon) had gyms and tanning salons still open. It will be interesting to watch if the authorities allow Churches to reopen freely after this or if the public health crisis "lasts" longer with churches than it does with businesses. As our government's priorities indicate, they clearly believe churches to be recreational facilities.

As an aside, I'm not sure what the government in Illinois has done, but Oregon is still allowing people to go outside alone without asking questions. So this means I can still go for a run or take a walk. I'm thankful for that, since otherwise this would be much more difficult than it already is.

Beaches is just an example.  You could replace it with any activitiy that requires going outdoors and it would remain the same.  I've heard dozens of people in the past month argue that you don't actually need to go to the Church to practice your faith.  An online stream is sufficient to meet the requirements of the 1st Amendment according to many.  Personally, that's not a "life isn't fair" issue for me.  I will speak out.  The Church is willing to comply with a lot, but some things are not negotiable for more than a short period of a few weeks, such as Holy Communion.

I think we're basically in agreement then. I'd put the Church more on the grocery store level than the tanning salon level when it comes to shutdowns. The beach I'd put on the tanning salon level.

[TJ in Oregon]

Looks like the covid reporting sites all reported a typo for Nevada

The number of new positives for Nevada appears to be the number of total tests in their source.

[TJ in Oregon]

It's really something how we've gone from a number of possible drugs being tested that have some evidence they might work to Trump seemingly picking one (that he owns a very small investment in) and declaring it the best, to it being decried as a scam, all despite still ongoing global testing that predated Trump's announcement of support.

[TJ in Oregon]

Trump's stake in Sanofi is approximately 0.000004% of his wealth, or roughly the equivalent of a nickel to a person worth $100k.

Likely he's hawking it because he has wishful thinking that it will work since it would be by far the easiest antiviral agent under study right now to distribute on a widespread basis.

[TJ in Oregon]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1250209491372687360

Of course his first name is "Trey".

Fun fact Trey Hollingsworth carpetbagged into Indiana and basically bought the seat.

[TJ in Oregon]

Noticed something interesting about Italy's numbers.

New cases per day in Italy is going downward, but it's doing so in an interesting pattern. It's going downward like a staircase, not like a slope. I'm unsure if this pattern is due to reporting flaws as it goes downward, or if the cases are actually fluctuating while overall decreasing. Take a look for yourself:

Saturday is higher than Sunday or Monday or Tuesday for the past several weeks.

So you are saying what exactly?

This is probably caused by differences in testing and reporting on different days of the week. If people come in to the doctor more on weekdays and it takes them 1 or 2 days to get the results of a test, then we'd expect to see fewer test results come in on Sun, Mon, and Tues. I imagine there are a lot of people who feel sort of sick debating about whether or not they should go to the doctor, or perhaps there are more working/testing hours on Mon-Fri. There are all sorts of reasons why things might fluctuate depending on the day of the week.

[TJ in Oregon]

For those speculating on a burst of infection in Wisconsin after the primary election was held in-person, so far there doesn't seem to be any signal from it. Hopefully it will stay that way.

[TJ in Oregon]

For those speculating on a burst of infection in Wisconsin after the primary election was held in-person, so far there doesn't seem to be any signal from it. Hopefully it will stay that way.

https://twitter.com/chadcotti/status/1251238294790311945?s=21

Look at the WSJ chart which has it by day. The dip corresponds entirely to Easter and whatever moving average has Easter in it.

[TJ in Oregon]

How in the world is 4.8 million tests per month anywhere close to enough?  At that rate, it will take 6 years to test every American.  The testing of symptomatic people isn’t even that important right now.  If you’re symptomatic, you probably have it.  But for every symptomatic person, there’s almost certainly at least 10, and maybe closer to 50, asymptomatic people who have no idea they have it.  How are we going to isolate those cases testing only 4.8 million people per month?

We don’t have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis, we have 330 million who need a diagnosis.

Anywhere between 2-3 at the moment. And the anti-body testing program will reveal that more accurately. I hope it is 50 as that would severely reduce the chances of this thing coming back next year.

For every death, I am suggesting 70 people have been infected fully with symptoms. Hence the mortality rate.

Another 70 people are asymptomatic and another 120-140 are carrying antibodies without ever knowing they came into contact with the virus. No glass residue in their lungs or any symptoms whatsoever. The youth are simply not getting sick in anywhere near the numbers that the elderly are.

As for your other point, which is valid, and was actually asked at the briefing, Dr Fauci said that normal RNA testing (+/- for virus) will never keep up with the population of 330M. It's just not feasible.

For mass population testing, your only option he said was a reliable anti-body test due to the instant nature of the diagnosis. He warned that not all anti-body results are reliable.

So they have a graded scale of testing that works it's way down to produce overall results that are meaningful.

I guess I don’t understand why it isn’t “feasible” to produce a test that anyone can get, and get quick results for.  Anybody today can go the their local pharmacy and pick up an OTC HIV test for less than $50 that will tell them if they have the HIV virus in about 15 minutes.  Why would this not be possible for COVID?

And why is it possible for Iceland to test anyone that wants it but not the US?

It probably will be possible to be tested like that eventually, but it takes time to develop these things.

Here is a basic description of how the tests work. Typically we'd expect various portions of this procedure to be streamlined and automated over time. When you initially design something, usually you first just try to get it to work at all, then figure out how to make it easier.