51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis (user search)
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  51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis (search mode)
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Author Topic: 51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis  (Read 12895 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« on: October 07, 2020, 12:50:28 PM »

Maine is a state that Biden is set to improve in modestly. The polling is better than 2016 and so will the environment be. Biden should be gaining near everywhere, especially the more growing southern suburbs of Portland. Trump may continue to gain a smidge in the most rural of rurals, but otherwise, not really. I do not think RCV will be necessary at the presidential level for any of the electoral votes, but it should be interesting if it is up for contention like that. I am a little more bearish on Maine however, with the long term movement of the state, and the still decent size gap between Biden and Gideon's polling leads. Regardless, this should still be a good year for Maine democrats, and a really neat state to watch, if nothing else, for RCV.



ME 1st: +14.81 Clinton to +19.41 Biden (4.6 margin swing dem)

ME 2nd: +10.31 Trump to +4.51 Trump (5.8 margin swing dem)

ME AL: +2.96 Clinton to +8.2 Biden (5.24 margin swing dem)

Biden is up 12.8% over Trump according to the current RCP average. This does not surprise me, given that Maine is one of the most secular states in the nation, and Trump has offered non-religious people little to cheer about. I see Biden winning the state by double digits and taking ME-02 in a squeaker.

I agree that RCV will make this fun to watch, and I have a feeling Biden will get a lot of 2nd-choice ballots.
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