The election is basically over, isnt it?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's not over, but the electorate is so locked in at this point, it will take something major to turn it around for Trump. I think he needs:

1. A massive economic recovery
2. A long period of Trump acting like an adult
3. Landmark legislation that is popular with independents

He really could use:

4. A major Biden scandal

I don't see any of those happening, let alone 3 out of 4.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's not over, but the electorate is so locked in at this point, it will take something major to turn it around for Trump. I think he needs:

1. A massive economic recovery
2. A long period of Trump acting like an adult
3. Landmark legislation that is popular with independents

He really could use:

4. A major Biden scandal

I don't see any of those happening, let alone 3 out of 4.

Furthermore, the things that would have helped Trump early in his tenure will no longer help, or may hurt him:

1. Yet another migrant refugee crisis
2. A SCOTUS vacancy
3. A terror attack
4. A major military action with broad popular support

The last one might move the needle, but a terror attack will just further expose Trump's lack of leadership and good decision making. You're basically giving Trump a loaded weapon to defeat Biden, which he will undoubtedly use to shoot himself in the leg.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

The difference between 2016 and now is in 2016 most everyone outside of the "always vote D regardless" voters hated the Democratic nominee. The only people that hate Biden are the diehard Sanders supporters.

Furthermore, all of the center-right people who voted Trump in the hopes that he would "pivot," and "the office will make the man," are probably reevaluating that decision. Anyone who was cautiously optimistic Trump would be molded into a competent president are disappointed at this point. Biden is a reasonable alternative for these people.

Trump has not even met my already low expectations for him. It's been a disaster of a presidency, and he will probably be remembered as the guy who was handed Obama's America and Obama's economy on a silver platter and somehow managed to **** all of it up. We were on easy mode, but not anymore.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

I give this troll a B-. Good, but not great.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

These threads are really reminding me of 2016.  But I do think Biden's chances are over 90% right now because, Atlas aside, the complacency of the general electorate is more on the right as most Republicans don't believe the polls at all because of 2016.

The difference between 2016 and now is in 2016 most everyone outside of the "always vote D regardless" voters hated the Democratic nominee. The only people that hate Biden are the diehard Sanders supporters.

Furthermore, all of the center-right people who voted Trump in the hopes that he would "pivot," and "the office will make the man," are probably reevaluating that decision. Anyone who was cautiously optimistic Trump would be molded into a competent president are disappointed at this point. Biden is a reasonable alternative for these people.

Trump has not even met my already low expectations for him. It's been a disaster of a presidency, and he will probably be remembered as the guy who was handed Obama's America and Obama's economy on a silver platter and somehow managed to **** all of it up. We were on easy mode, but not anymore.

The Obama's economy acting like it was healthy was ridiculous. It was a zombie based on long-term ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) with high amounts of leveraged debt to finance everything.

If the economy was healthy in 2016, why were interest rates still at near historical lows?

I don't really remember 2016 being THAT great. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump never become credible candidates in a happy country that is working well.

The answer in 2016 was that inflation was very low, and the Fed believed there was still room for the job market to improve. Janet Yellen said as much:

So why didn’t we raise the federal funds rate at today’s meeting? Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Conditions in the labor market are strengthening, and we expect that to continue. And while inflation remains low, we expect it to rise to our 2 percent objective over time. But with labor market slack being taken up at a somewhat slower pace than in previous years, scope for some further improvement in the labor market remaining, and inflation continuing to run below our 2 percent target, we chose to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward our objectives.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/fed-fomc-sept/501020/

Now let's talk about December of 2018. Because at that point we were at full employment. The unemployment rate was below 4%. Every piece of sound monetary doctrine says that that is the time to raise interest rates. And raise them they did. And this pushed the stock market (and Trump's approval numbers) downward. What did Trump do? He put a bunch of his guys on the Federal Reserve district boards to LOWER interest rates. There was no economic justification for this. None.

Fast forward to March of 2020. A public health disaster that led to a severe economic shock. Had the Fed followed sound policy and raised rates 25 basis points per quarter, in a calm, highly predictable manner to allow the market to bake in interest rate expectations and avoid shocks to the system, we would have been in a much better position. We were at a 2.5% FFR at the end of 2019, which would have put us at 3.75% last March. That would have given the Fed lots of room to open up the cash flow.

Now, I realize that the FFR isn't a sonic screwdriver - it isn't a magic tool that can fix everything, but it's an important tool, and Trump's stacking of the Fed boards took that tool away. He politicized the Fed, which in and of itself is bad mojo. The world's confidence in the dollar and in US treasuries depends on the belief that the Fed is politically neutral. Manipulating a central bank for political purposes is playing with fire.

All that aside, exactly what did Trump do to aid the economy's roaring progress through 2019? A milquetoast tax reform bill? Deregulation? If there was any meaningful impact, it was that investors expect an environment of low taxes and less burdensome regulations, and were bullish on the future. The market exploded between Trump's election and his inauguration. Trump didn't do that, investors did.

Obama got elected with the economy circling the drain, on the precipice of a possible second Great Depression. He left office with 4.7% unemployment and seven straight years of GDP growth. Trump was the beneficiary of that. Voters understand this.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Mother of Christ. Do you guys have a political death wish?

1, Burisma related scandal
2. Trump realizes the stakes and acts like an adult to persuade Indys
3. Something happens to Biden, forcing his VP pick to be the nominee and is far less popular.
4. Dem voter complacency - while the make America miserable again base comes out in droves

A zillion things can happen between now and then. There is zero chance Biden wins by anywhere near what he’s up by right now. It’s a 270 election. Arizona & Wisconsin decoding it all.

Acting like it’s over now is quite literally the most idiotic thing you could post. Do better.

I was thinking the same thing.
There was another post, from another individual, that also mentioned this.
There isn't a chance in Hell that trump would start "acting like an adult" (yet alone for an entire 5 month span). Zero chance.

He was very disciplined the last 3 weeks of the 2016 campaign. He doesn't "need to start acting like an adult" he just needs to scale back the tweeting/offensive tweets and needs to hammer Biden with negative ads.

I'm not sure Trump is capable of scaling back the tweets at this point.  He seems to consider it the best and fastest way to get his thoughts out to the general public. 

I also wonder if his lack of impulse control is another sign of cognitive decline.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Yes it is over. Biden has no chance.

Then you might as well just stay home on Election Day. Especially since Florida is a Safe Trump state. No need to bother with all that pesky voting.

I won't but I know that AAs will and so will everyone else. Turnout will be low and Biden will lose.

With everything going on, as energized and angry as the AA population is, you actually think they're going to sit out the election this time?

Yes, I do. When they have to choose between the least of two evils they will not vote. If you think Joe Biden will do anything to change this epidemic of systemic racism in our society then you are mistaken. He voted for the 1994 crime bill that destroyed lives and families. There is no defense for that.

While I don't agree with much of this post, the evidence does not yet suggest there is likely to be a significant spike in African-American turnout (relative to any turnout increase in the wider population, that is), nor does the polling we have (admittedly not much outside of subsamples) indicate Biden's primary support translates into numbers significantly better than HRC's among AAs. The protests should not be assumed to have increased voting propensity amongst those involved and many have demonstrated precisely because they believe they can't get what they want through more convenient means like electoralism.

I actually think what is going on may depress AA turnout because many may feel hopeless like neither side is listening to them. Trump, through ads, talking about the 1994 crime bill won't suddenly cause AAs to support him but it could depress AA turnout because they may feel there is no real choice. If dems don't get good minority turnout Trump can def win in the EC.

I hate picking on other people on this forum, but JEEBUS CRIPES ON A CRACKER, this is so stupid on so many levels. Are you trolling, or do you really think this?

Have you not been paying attention to the primaries? Black voters have made it resoundingly clear that he's their guy. Contrary to popular perception, the African-American voting base is not full of ultra-woke, cancel-culturing SJWs. They understand that people change and evolve, and they know the difference between tone-deafness and genuine antipathy.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No economy at or near ZIRP should ever be declared healthy. Go look at Japan the past 30 years.

The Fed has been politicized since Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair. This isn't exactly new. I agree rates should have been higher and they would have lots of room to open up the cash flow afterward, but don't sit and tell me interest rates are under 1% and the economy is healthy.

So the FFR cuts during 2019 mean the economy was getting worse?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If this were a baseball season, Biden now has a 10-game lead. Can you blow a 10-game lead between July and October? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No.