Trump is losing ground in way too many parts of PA (not just Erie, but also Pittsburgh + suburbs, Southeastern PA/Delaware Valley, college towns) for me to feel comfortable rating it a pure Tossup. His win in 2016 was certainly very impressive (more so than his win in WI), but it’s looking more and more like an aberration.
He’ll keep it close, but it’s hard to see him actually winning PA again. It’s pretty obvious that WI is the much better bet for him.
You use a county poll (which are notoriously unreliable and lag way behind the trend of counties) where Trump is 4 points behind where he was in 2016 to say that 2016 was an aberration?
That + actual statewide polls + actual election results + obvious trends + the fact that he ran against a deeply unpopular and flawed Democrat in 2016 and still only barely won the state (yes, the fact that his opponent was Hillary Clinton kinda matters...)
Trump could still win PA, but to act like it couldn’t possibly be any worse than a hyper-competitive Tossup for him under any circumstances is silly.
PA is full of literally millions of shy Trump voters who will always support him because of all the winning in the steel industry. The shy, and the meek, and the downtrodden love Trump, a man of the people. These people are so shy, when the pollsters (all very intimidating college types) call them, they panic and are unable to answer, throwing off their numbers.
Toxic waste poll.
