Why Trump will win again.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Why Hillary will win in 2016

1. If a moderate like Marco Rubio is nominated, people on the far right will whine and vote third party or not show up because by their logic, it’s better to have a President that you don’t agree with at all than one that you mostly agree with, but that just isn’t far right enough.

2. If Trump or a Freedom Caucus / TEA Party nutjob like Ted Cruz is nominated they will lose the electoral college because moderates and independents simply do not like their ideas. The polling backs this up every time. Completely repealing the ACA and banning Muslims from entering the country are very unpopular.

Republicans can’t stop fighting with each other and will throw the election to the Democrats once again. If you want Democrats out of office vote for the Republican nominee. Seems like a simple idea, but many can’t seem to grasp it.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

You do understand that WI, PA, MI only voted 1* since 1988 for a GOP prez, and all three have Dem govs. Trump only won those three states do to Gary Johnson and  Stein taking 8%

Gary Johnson took more votes from Trump than from Clinton. Jill Stein voters would be pre-disposed to vote Democrat stay at home if no other alternative existed, but Johnson voters outnumbered Stein 3 to 1. His analysis is correct there. The only wild card is how many Trump voters in the three turned states (WI, MI, PA) were Democrats protesting Bernie Sanders treatment who would come back for an Elizabeth Warren or a Democrat fully endorsed by Sanders.

Or how many were independents who voted Trump out of protest, under the mistaken impression, given most media outlets, that Trump had no chance of winning the election.

See also: Brexit.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

You do understand that WI, PA, MI only voted 1* since 1988 for a GOP prez, and all three have Dem govs. Trump only won those three states do to Gary Johnson and  Stein taking 8%

Gary Johnson took more votes from Trump than from Clinton. Jill Stein voters would be pre-disposed to vote Democrat stay at home if no other alternative existed, but Johnson voters outnumbered Stein 3 to 1. His analysis is correct there. The only wild card is how many Trump voters in the three turned states (WI, MI, PA) were Democrats protesting Bernie Sanders treatment who would come back for an Elizabeth Warren or a Democrat fully endorsed by Sanders.

Or how many were independents who voted Trump out of protest, under the mistaken impression, given most media outlets, that Trump had no chance of winning the election.

See also: Brexit.

Which probably means nobody really has any idea what is going to happen.

The number of wonky, unknown/hidden variables in this election is astounding. Hell, we don't even know if Trump will be President on Election Day. Totally unprecedented times, because the election of someone like Donald Trump is totally unprecedented in US history. Throw out all conventional knowledge.

I can guarantee two things:
1. Trump will not win a popular vote plurality.
2. The Democratic challenger will receive fewer than 400 EVs.

Beyond that? f if I know

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

You do understand that WI, PA, MI only voted 1* since 1988 for a GOP prez, and all three have Dem govs. Trump only won those three states do to Gary Johnson and  Stein taking 8%

Gary Johnson took more votes from Trump than from Clinton. Jill Stein voters would be pre-disposed to vote Democrat stay at home if no other alternative existed, but Johnson voters outnumbered Stein 3 to 1. His analysis is correct there. The only wild card is how many Trump voters in the three turned states (WI, MI, PA) were Democrats protesting Bernie Sanders treatment who would come back for an Elizabeth Warren or a Democrat fully endorsed by Sanders.

Or how many were independents who voted Trump out of protest, under the mistaken impression, given most media outlets, that Trump had no chance of winning the election.

See also: Brexit.

Which probably means nobody really has any idea what is going to happen.

The number of wonky, unknown/hidden variables in this election is astounding. Hell, we don't even know if Trump will be President on Election Day. Totally unprecedented times, because the election of someone like Donald Trump is totally unprecedented in US history. Throw out all conventional knowledge.

I can guarantee two things:
1. Trump will not win a popular vote plurality.
2. The Democratic challenger will receive fewer than 400 EVs.

Beyond that? f if I know

Implying that the gop would commit political sucide.

I said we don't know if Trump will be President. I didn't say he wouldn't. If 50% of Republicans come to believe Trump should be removed from office, it would be political suicide not to vote to remove unless you're from a deeply red state.

There's another variable: we have never had an obese 74-year-old President. Even taking into account that he spends a lot of time golfing, the Presidency is still a brutal, round the clock job.

Right now PredictIt gives Trump only a 70% chance of finishing his term.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Post Deleted by Moderator

This is the most Michigan take on Wisconsin ever.

The "rural redneck" areas of which you speak have a century of farmer-progressive culture. It's not like these are solid red counties that decided to roll the dice on Obama. And the whole "muh PC culture" thing isn't even a talking point outside of right-wing echo chambers.

Wisconsinites by and large believe in fairness and progress. Even the Republicans do.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Regarding economic conditions, the Industrial Midwest soundly rejected the notion that Obama's massive gains in objective economic measures over the course of eight years (albeit anemic in his final two years) meant that their personal economic outlook was peachy. Trump promised to bring back industrial sector jobs - specifically jobs for men without a college education - and I don't see that that has happened. If I'm wrong, please show me the data.

For every white collar guy with a six-figure 401k who is considerably wealthier than he was in 2016, how many blue collar guys are still hurting as much as, or worse than they were? Trump absolutely has to get those guys to show up at the polls to be re-elected, and I don't think they're going to be energized by GDP numbers or an abundance of low-paying retail and service sector jobs. Michigan is gone, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are iffy.

Regarding scandal, we saw Hillary's support among independents take a nosedive after Comey announced he was looking into more emails two weeks before the election. Exit polls show that everyone outside of the Democrat true believers was deeply concerned about this, and a lot of voters chose Trump because of it. By any objective measure the Ukraine scandal blows Clinton's emails out of the water, and I don't see how this isn't worse for Trump than muh emails was for Hillary.

If this were any other President, these fundamentals indicate a cakewalk to re-election. CO, NV, MN and NH would all flip. Maybe even VA. But this is Trump, and he's managed to do everything in his power to screw up his own prospects.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/31/politics/donald-trump-ad-world-series-2020/index.html

"Yes, he's a jerk. But he's a jerk who gets results!"

"He's no Mr. Nice Guy. But sometimes it takes a Donald Trump to change Washington."

Re: World Series ad, if they package Trump like this he may just win, they are saying.

He is changing Washington, gotta admit that. But for the good?

bUt He'S nOt A pOliTiCiAn